black swan.pdf
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Back to norms, is an article that address the event of Black Swan, which is a very hard situation for airline industry, but it shows that there is some light at the end of the tunnel. that may recover soon.
black swan.pdf
- 1. 8 悋 悋愀惡惺 悋惷惺 悋 惺惆悸 Back To Norms 惺惺 惺惡 愍悵 : 悋惺悵悋惆 悋悵惠 惺慍悴愆 愡惺 悋悖悵悋 愍戞悋慍悽愀 惡戞慍愍 悒惱悵 惡惆悋慍愍悵 悋悴愆 愆愆惡惆 愆悋戞悋愀 . 悴悵 惡惺悵忰 悋惱惴惡悄 悋 愆悋愕 慍悽慍 悋 悵悋 悋愆悋 ﾙ惘 悵悋惺悵 愆愆惡惆 愆悋戞悋愀 惓悧愀悵悋愕 愆惘惡愕 悽戞悒惱惴惡悧 惘愍悵惆 悖悵悋惡 悽慍悽 愆忰戞慍愃 悋惺慍惡惆悋 惺 惴愆惘 戞惘愍 愃 愆悋戞悋愀 悽戞悋惺惡 悋悵 悵忰戞惓惺 惡 悋悵 愆忰戞惴 惡 惓惡愀悴惺 惡 愆愆惡惆 惴惡惆 愆悋戞惱 悽惺愆 惘惺 惺 悒愀悵悋愕 惷 慍 悋惆戞悋慍愍 悋慍悴悗悋惆 惺惡 愆悋戞悋愀 惡悋惘愍惡惆 悋悵 悋愃 IATA 愆愆慍 惴悋悴 愆惓惡惶悋悒 惴悽 愆悋戞悋愀 悋悵 悽戞悋惺惡 ) 惡悋 - (ICAO 悋愃惴 悋惺惡 愀惡愕悋惆 ( (ACI 悵悋惺悵 愆愆惡惆 愆悋戞悋愀 悽戞悋惺惡 悋惺惻悽 惘 惺悵 惆惺 悖惺惴 悋愡愍悽 戞愍 悽惡愀悽 惓惡愃悴悽 愆愆惡惆 悋惴惺悽 愆戞惱 惘惻惺 愆愆悽 惡惆戞悋愆愡 惱愆 戞悋慍愍 悋悽惡愀悽 惡惓 惡 悗惆 惘 悒 悋愍惴 惺 慍惡悧惴 悽慍悽 惷 悋愀惡悧愆悋惆 愀惡惺悽 愆愆惡惆 惷 愆愆悽 惴悋悴 惺悽愃 愆惓惡惶悋悋 . 惡 惻惡悖 悵悋惺悵 悋悗愆愆悋惆 悋悽慍悴惡愕 惆悽 慍惡悧惴 悋慍悴悗悋惆 慍愆 惡 惡愀戞 惺惡 悋慍惡愡 / 悋悋惱慍愃惡悸 Coefficient of Determination 惓惡愆愃 悖 悋惱慍愃惡惓 惱悵 悋 愍惴 惺 慍惡悧惴 悽戞惡惺戞 悽戞愆愡 悖 悋愍惴 惺 愕忰悋惴 悋惡悽 悒悋 悖 愃惡悴惡 惡 愃慍悽悵 惺 愀惡 悋惺惺 惺惡 愆悋戞悋愀 悗愆愆 悵戞惺 戞慍愍 . 慍 悋惡悽 惡愆 愆忰 悵忰惺悵 慍悴悗 惓惡惺慍悽悵悋 惺惡 惶愍 悽戞悒惱惴惡悧 悋惱慍愃惡悸 惺惡 悋悒惶悋惱悽 愕悋悋悵 悋愆惘悴愀悽 惘愀惓惡 愆戞惱 愃慍悽悵惡 悖惆悋忰 愃惻 惺 愕愍 x,y . 悋 惺悋 惠惡悗悋惓 悋愀悋悧惘悋惓 惶悋惺 惡 愀惡惺悽 愆愆悽 愆悋戞悋愀 惺惡 愀惡惺悽 悋 惓愀惠 慍悴悗 悽戞惺 悽惡惶 悋 .惡愃慍 惡惡惘戞愃戞悋惺慍愆悋惘 惺 惓惡悄 戞戞惘 愆惡悸 惺愃 愃悽 惘愃慍悵 悽 惷戞悋慍愆 悵戞惱悋慍 悴悵悋 悒 愆惓惡惶悋悋 (Hub To Hub) ."愕悋愍 悒 愕"悋愍 惓愀愆悋惶 悽悵慍 愆惡悸 惡悧悋 惺戞悋慍愃 惺 惘愃慍悵 愆忰 悋惱悵 悋 悋惆 慍 惱惡悧愆忰 惺戞惘惴 悒 A380 .悋惺悋悽 惘愃 悋慍愃惷悧悽 悴悵悖 惺 惴悋悴 愆愆悽 愃悽 慍悵 (point to point) 悒 愀悽 " ."愀悽 悴悵悋 悽悵悽 悽悋愆惷 惺悵 悋 惺戞惺 惺 愀惡愕悋惆 惺悵惆 惡惆忰惶 悋惺惡惺悽 惡 悋慍 惺愀悽慍 惓悖惱愃惡 悋愆惱悋惆 悋慍 悋 惺戞惘惴 悒 惆 B787 惆愕 .愆悋 惺 慍悴悗 慍悋 .悋愀 悋悵 惴愀惻 惡惆悋悧 悋惺 悧惡 愆戞悋惴 悋悵 惺 慍悴悗 惓惡愃悴悽 悽戞惺悋 悽戞悋惴 悽愕悋悵 悽愆悋愆 悽戞悋惴 愆悋惆戞悋慍愃 惺惴 . 惺 愆戞悋慍惺悴 悋 戞慍愀悴 悽戞悋惺 悽愀愆 惘愀 悋慍悴悗 惘愀 悽悋 愆悋戞悋愀 惴惡惺悽 ARIMA .惺悋 悽悋愃 惱悋悽愀 悋惺慍悽悵悵 悵 悽戞戞悋 - 悽惱愆 惘慍惡 悵忰惺悵 悋惺 戞惓慍 悋悋悽愀惡悄 惺 惘慍愍 悋慍 惡 愡悋惷 Displacement 悋 愕悋悵 Rotation .悵悋愃悵 惘愀 悋惺悋惠 悋忰惘惠 惘悋惡 悋愀惘悋 惺悋 惘愀 慍愃 悋 愍愆悽 惺惡 愆惡悸 悽戞悋惺惡 悋惺惡 悋悗 悽戞惺惓惡 愆悋戞悋愀 戞悋惴 惺悋 戞戞愃戞愕悧 戞惺惓 慍悖惶愆 惓惡悽 愃悵忰 惘愀悋 慍悋 惆愕悋惺悽 惺悵 惺悋 悋愆慍 悋悵悋愕愀 悋 惆忰悋惺 惺 惡惘 惓惺悵惡 悵戞惺 惺 慍悋 悽戞惡愡悋愆 悋惺悋 慍悋 戞悋愃 惺悵 悋惺愆忰 悋愍惴 惺 戞戞愍戞悋愃 惺悵 悋惆戞悋 惡悽 惘 惓悵愕悋惺悽 悋愍愆悽 悋悽惡惶 惘惺悽 惺愆 愀惺 惓悵 .悽悋愆 悋慍愆愃 悽戞戞悋 惓悽愀愀惡 惺惴 戞 愀惡愕悋惆 悋惡悵 悽戞 愆愆惡惆 悋 愍戞慍悽愀 愆悋戞悋愀 .惘悋 悋 悋悽愍 慍悋 惺 惺悽悋慍 悋愍愆悽 惺惡悸戞悋惺慍
- 2. 2 2 悋愀惘悋 惺悋 悋愕惆悋悄 悋惡悴惺惠 惴悋惘悸 ( Covid 19 ) 惆悋悄悋愃 悋悴愃惺悽 - .悽戞悽 悋惠惺 惺惡惆忰 惺慍 惡 惶慍愃惡 愆戞惱 惓 悋慍悴悗 悋 惱悵愕 惆悋悄悋愃 悋悴愃惺悽 悖惱悵悋愕 惷戞惘慍 愆惡戞惘悖惶 悵忰悋愆悵 惡惓悵愕惘 .悋慍悖悽愆 悋悒惆愕悋 悋愡愍悽 惡悵 惡悖 惺 悋惺惺悋 悋悒愀愆悋愕 悵悋愆悵 悵 悋愀戞 蓜愃 悴 悋惴愀惻 蓜惘惺 惘 悋愃惡惓 悋慍惡惺愆 悋惡惘惠 悽戞悋惡 悖惺慍惡惘 惱惡惠 惱悵愕 愆忰 惺 慍惠 愆戞惱 .悵惺慍愆 惺惡 愀悵愕 慍惡悸 惆悋悄悋愃 悋悴愃惺悽 7002 惺惡 悽戞悋惡 悋悖惶悽 悖惱悵悋愕 悴 7002 . 愆戞惱 戞悋愃慍愍 悖 悋惴愆 惓悖 惱惡惠 惺惡惆 悵忰悋愆悵 惡悵愕惘 惆悋悄悋愃 悋悴愃惺悽 惓悖惱悵悋愕 悋慍悴悗 惱悵愕 悖 惡惆悋悧 悋惡愀 慍愆惺 悖 悋 惡 惡 悋惱慍惡 惆悋悄悋愃 悋悴愃惺悽 .慍 惡 愍戞悋慍悽愀 悽愍惡 惡 愃戞悋愆悧 愃惡惠 悖 惆悋悄悋愃 悋悴愃惺悽 愍愆惶 悽惘惡愕 惱悵愕 惺 悋愆悋悴 .惺惘 悽戞戞惓 悋慍 惺 惓惺悵 愆愆惱 惺 悋愃慍悴 惆悋悄悋愃 惓惡悴愃惺惡惆 悋慍悴悗 惺 悋惺悋 惘愃惡惺悵 悋 愕惺惺 惓悖惶愆 惡惆悋慍 慍 惷 悧 惘 . 悋愀惘悋 惺悋 悋愕惆悋悄 悋惡悴惺惠 惴悋惘悸 悋惓惘 戞愃 悽戞惺戞悋愀悴 悋愕愕悋 悽悋悋慍惴惡惆 惘愆悋惆悋慍 悋悋惶惡惆 悋 悋惺 惡戞惺 愀 悋 惓悧悽悋悋 悋悧惻悋愃 惺悽戞悋愀悴 愆 惓愃惺悽 惆悋悄惺 悋悋悖惺 惡愕戞悋 悖惶悽 愆悋戞悋 愆惺 悋慍愆惡愕 愆戞悋悴 悋愃惡惆 悋惶悽 惷悋 7822 悋惱悵悋愕 77 惺悴慍愆 / 悋愆 悖惶悽 悖 悋惺惡愕 7002 悋惺惡 惆 悋愃惠 悋 愀愆戞悋 悋慍愆惡愕 惘愆 惓愃悴惠 愕惡 愀悵悽 悛悽愆惡 惴戞 悽悋慍惴惡惆 惡惆戞惘悵悋惺 惡悽 惡 惡 悽戞悋惺慍惡惺 惆悋惺 惓愃惺惡惆 悋惷 惓惡惴悽 悽戞惺 .悄 慍愀愆 惡 悋 惠悖惓惘 Covid 19 悋愀惘悋 惺悋 惺 悋悋悴惠悋惺 悋悋惠惶悋惆 惺惡 惘悴悵 悵 : 悽戞悋惡 悽戞悋惡惱 愆悋戞悋愀 惓愃悵 惡惆惱悽 悽愃惡悧愆 227 惺惡 悋愕惆 戞惓 7070 273 悋愕惆 戞惓 惺惡 7077 768 惺惡 悋悋 惴 悋愕惆 戞惓 7077 愆悋戞悋愀 愆愆惡惆 愆戞悋惷 悋惺悵 悋惺惡 悋悋惺愀 惴 悽惷 惘 惡悒悋惺 惱惡悧愆忰 愀悽愆 悋惺悋悽 悋愆愆惡惆 惓惺愃 悋惺悋 .悋愀惡悧愆悋惆 A380 .悋悽悵悽 惡愕悸 惡 悋 悋愃惡愆 悋愆惡悸 惺悵惆 悋悽愃 惺惡 惡愕悽 悋惴 7078 惺惡 7070 悋 慍悋 . 30 惺惡 % 7077 惺惡 惡愕悽 7078 . 悽戞悋悋惺慍惡惺 悽戞悋惡惱 悋惡 惡悋愆 愆惺 悋慍愆惡愕 悋惆悋悄 悵 悋惡悽 惺悵 悋愃愃悵 悋悋惺慍惡惺 悋悴惺悵 惡惺悽戞惺 戞惘愀悴 悋愃愆 惺 悋 悋悋惺慍惡惺 悋愍悋惆 惡惆悋悴惡愕 惡惆 惓惺悵 惺 悋悵愕悋惺悽 惡惺悽戞惺 戞惘惺 悋悵悋愕愀 惡悋 .
- 3. 3 3 悋惠惡悗 惘悴 :悋愀惘悋 惺悋 惘悋惡 悽 惡 惡惆惡 愕忰愆 惡悋 悋 悋惠惡悗悋惓 "悋 愕 悋愕惠惡 忰悵惓 惓 惘 忰悵惓 悋惘悋 悋惠愕惘 惠悵 " 愆悋戞悋愀 惺惡 惡 愆悋戞惱 愆愆悽 悋悽惡惶 惡惘惺 惺惴 惺悽戞惱悴 悋悴悵 惡忰戞悋愍 愍 惡惆戞悋惺惡 悋惺悋 悋 慍悋 惘惺惴 惓愃悴悽 悋惡悵 悋慍惡 悋惺惡 悋悽愆 愆忰 惘惺惡惆 惓惡悖愕惡 悋惺悋 惘 .戞惺 悋愍愃惡愕 悋 慍悴悗 悽惱愆 悋惻 惡 悽戞惺 惓惡惺慍悽悵悋 惘愀 ARIMA 悵悋惺悵 慍愀惠 惺悵 惡愡愕 惘愀 惺 惘愃 悽惡愀悽 惓愆悋惴 惡 .悽戞悋惷 悋愃悋惺 悋悋惱惴惡悄 悽戞悋悋惡惆 悋悽悴愆忰 戞惘愍 惺 悋愃慍悽悵 ARIMA .悽戞惡 悴惡愃 惡惓 悋惺惡 悋悋惘愃惡 悽愍 愕悋悋悵 悋悋惶悋惱悽 悽惓愀愆 悋慍悴悗悋惆 戞惘愍 悽戞戞悋 悽悋愃 惱悋悽愀 悵悵 悵 .慍悴悗 悽戞愡惺 悋惻 慍愍悵惆 惠忰 悋悋惠悴悋 ( 悋惺悋 Back To Norms ) 慍惡悋悋 悴 悋悵悽 悽慍愆戞悋 悋愆惡悸 愍愆悽 惡戞悋悴 悋愆惺 惺 悋惺慍惡惆悋 愍愆悽 悋惺惡 悋惘愃惡忰 戞戞惘愍 愀悴 悋 惡 惡悋愆 愕惱悵 悴 愆悋悄悋惆 戞惘愍 : 悋悋 戞惓惡惘愃惡 惻惡悋 悋 - 愀愆 愃慍 惺悵 悋惺惡 悋悋惘愃惡忰 戞惘愍 悸 悋惺惡 悋悋惘愃惡忰 戞惘愍 惡悋愆 愕惱悵 惓惺悵 愆悋悄悋惆 戞惘愍 : 悋惷惡 - 悋惺惡 悋悋惘愃惡忰 戞惘愍 戞悋悋惘愃惡 惘惡惱惺 惺悵 戞悋慍愍 戞惓 愆戞惱 惡戞悋悴 悋愆惺 愆戞愆 愆戞惱 愆悋戞悋愀 惺惡 悽戞惺戞悋愀悴 悋愍愆悽 惡忰戞悋愍 惆忰惺 悋惷 悵悋 惺惡 惡 愆愆 悽戞惺戞悋愀悴 悋愍愆悽 愕惱悵 悽悴悵悋 7072 愆惡 悋惡悽 悽戞惺戞悋愀悴 愍惡悽 慍惴 悋 慍愃慍愆 7073 .
- 4. 4 4 惆惘悋愕惠 愀 :悋惺悋 惘悴 悋愕惠 惺戞悋愀悴 悋慍悴悗 悋愆 惡戞悋悴 悋愆惺 惺惴 愆戞惱 )悋悋惱愆 (悋 惡愆 悋惶悽 愕惱悵 惺悵 悸 惺悽悋慍 悋 愃悴悽 惡悵 5.07 % - 悋愕惘悴惡惱 惓惺惡 惺惡 98.53 % 戞悴 惡 .惡悋愆 惶 悽戞悋惺 蓜悋 惆悋悋惺 悋悽愍 悋 愍愆悽 悋悋悽惡惺 愀 悵 惺惡 愆惡悸 7070 悋惺悵惆 愃悴悽 惺悋慍 68.61% 惺惡 悋愆惡悸 愍愆悽 悋悋悽惡惺 愀 悵 7077 愃悴悽 惺悋慍 悋惺悵惆 62.39 % : 悋悽悋惶惠 悋 惓惡悖愕惡 愆惘悴愀惡 惆悋悧惡 悋慍悴悗悋惆 惺 惺 悋 惺悵悋 悋惴惺惠 惡悽 )惡愕 (惱惡悽 惆悋悄悋愃 悋悴愃惺悽 惱惡悽 愕惱悵 惺悵 .悋悋惱惴惡悄 惺惘 惡惆 惘悴悗悋惆 悋 惘惺慍悴愆 惺惡 悽戞惺戞悋愀悴 惡忰戞悋愍 悋 惆忰惺 悋 惷戞惓惴 愆惴 .悸悋愍愆 惻惡惡惆戞悋 悋惷悋 愕惱悵 惷 悋惡愆忰 悋惴愆 悋惱悵 悋惶悋 愆戞惱 愆悋戞悋愀 愆戞悋慍悖惶 悋愍惴悽 惱慍 悋悴悵 戞悋 惡惺悽戞惓愃 惘慍惡惶愆 悋慍 悽戞悋悵 悋愆惱悋惆 惺 悋 悽悵 悵 悋悴悵悋 惓惺愃 悋 愃悵 惡悋愆 悽惡愀悽 悽戞悋悵悋悽 悋愆惱悋惆 惓惺惴 .惡惓 慍愃 悋悴惺愃 惷悋 悋 惡戞惓 悋愃愆 惺 惆戞悋 悵 悽戞悋悵悋悽 悋愍愆悽 愃悵 惡惡 惡 悋 悋惺慍惺惡惆惆 愃慍 惡愕悸 7078 惺惡 慍惴 悋惺惡 愆悋戞悋愀 愆惡惱 悋惡悽 惆忰惓惡惺 戞悋慍愍 愡惻 惡 .愍愆悽 7072 惺惡 悽惓悵悋 慍 7073 悋惡悽 惆忰悋惺 愆戞悋悋悽 慍惡悋悋 愆惘愆 悽戞悋惺惡 悋愍愆悽 愀惡惺惡惆 惓惺愃 愆惆悋惴 悵 . 悋愍愆悽 惷 戞戞悋悋惘 惡悋愆 悽 .