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                                FDI Dynamics
%#
                                                                                                Other                  7
                                                    CAGR (05-07)                                                  9

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                                                       CAGR (05-07)
 Source: National Bank Bank of Kazakhstan
  Source: National of Kazakhstan                                               Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan
     Note:                                                                                                        remains significant.


     FDI inflow is still highly concentrated in the natural resources sector rather than in added value industries:
      Kazakh banks became the drivers in outward investment to CIS countries (BTA, Kazkom);
      In the nearest future a large-scale FDI inflow will continue, but will be less intensive, especially in 2008-09


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21 May 2008
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 Source: National Bank Bank of Kazakhstan
  Source: National of Kazakhstan                                            Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan
     Note:                                                                                                     remains significant.


     FDI inflow is still highly concentrated in the natural resources sector rather than in added value industries                                        /
      Kazakh banks became the drivers in outward investment to CIS countries (BTA, Kazkom)
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21 May 2008
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                                                                                                                                                                              FDI/fixed investment
                                FDI Dynamics, bln USD                                                        Foreign direct investment/GDP, 2007                                       `07


                                                                  CAGR=62%
  =>              FDI inflow to Kazakhstan
                                                                                    FCHE          P2*L1/             BHB                                                           42.9%

  FR                                                                                             P5+-&+3.             BHE                                                          19.6%
                                                                        F>HD
  F>                                         DH=
                                                                                                   :2))-+              GHF                                                         33.3%
                                                           IHI
                              GHI                                                                O230+*/               GHF                                                          15.5%
                 GHF
    R
                                                                                                 NL*+-31                       CH>                                                  14.6%
    >
         2002          2003         2004            2005           2006          2007               M 5-&1                           DHD                                           25.6%
                                    Q>HE           QFH=          QFHB
                                                                             QBH>
   QR                                                                                         J+K+L5)4+3                                EHE                                         19.3%
                 FDI outflow from                            CAGR=147%
                 Kazakhstan                                                                                  >          =           G            I           D           F>


 Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan                                                           Source: EIU

                                                                                              Comments:
                                     FDI Structure, 2007                                           FDI inflow is highly concentrated in the natural resources sector rather than in value-
                 Inflow                                                        Outflow             added industries
                                                                                                   Kazakh banks (for example BTA, Kazkom) actively contributed to the investment
                                                                                                   outflow to the CIS countries
                 E?                          Resources                                             In the nearest future FDI inflow will continue to increase but less intensively,
         C?                                                               =B?                      especially in the period of 2008-09:
                                              Construction
                                                                                        B=?                  Start of production at offshore oilfield Kashagan, one of the key resource
        FC?             G>?                   Financial
                                              Services                                                       investment project, is delayed till 2012
                                                                     C?
                                              Retail                                               Kazakhstan remains attractive country for foreign investors due to high rates of
                 =C?                                                    D?                         return in the oil and related sectors, relative political stability and cheap available
                                               Other                             B>?               work-force
                                                                                                Note: FDI geographical breakdown will not demonstrate full data validity provided that in both streams
 Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan                                                                                 share remains significant

Booz & Company
21 May 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                               26
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21 May 2008
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21 May 2008
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21 May 2008
                 29

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  • 19. Executive Summary. reality check - Booz & Company 21 May 2008 18
  • 20. Booz & Company 21 May 2008 19
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  • 24. Pie chart Bar chart Stacked bar chart 40 200 89:.$%&'(' !"#$%&'(' 30 150 6*7$%&'(' )*#$%&'(' 20 35,9 100 30,6 10 20,4 3,45%&'(' +,-$.%&'(' 50 0 0 12%&'(' /,0$.%&'(' 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 Bar chart Map 400 Scatter chart y = 238,14e -5E-05x East 300 R2 = 0,1625 200 West 100 North 0 0 2 4 6 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Booz & Company 21 May 2008 23
  • 25. 012(34567(8)9:(':$5&7;<);:'(7=7;)%&)>4:(+<56;8(6%;8%&(;8:(4)7;(/(?:)<7 Retail FDI Dynamics %# Other 7 CAGR (05-07) 9 $" 17 40 62% Financial services 17.9 27 $# Real Estate Resources " 10.8 8.2 6.6 Construction 4.1 4.6 Resources 7 # 8 %##% %##& %##' %##" %##( %##) 32 Financial Services Other 23 !" 147 % 30 Retail CAGR (05-07) Source: National Bank Bank of Kazakhstan Source: National of Kazakhstan Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan Note: remains significant. FDI inflow is still highly concentrated in the natural resources sector rather than in added value industries: Kazakh banks became the drivers in outward investment to CIS countries (BTA, Kazkom); In the nearest future a large-scale FDI inflow will continue, but will be less intensive, especially in 2008-09 Booz & Company 21 May 2008 24
  • 26. 012(34567(8)9:(':$5&7;<);:'(7=7;)%&)>4:(+<56;8(6%;8%&(;8:(4)7;(/(?:)<7 ! FDI Dynamics " Retail %# Other 7 CAGR (05-07) 9 $" 17 40 62% Financial services 17.9 27 $# Real Estate Resources " 10.8 # 8.2 6.6 Construction 4.1 4.6 Resources 7 # 8 %##% %##& %##' %##" %##( %##) 32 Financial Services Other 23 !" . 30 Retail Source: National Bank Bank of Kazakhstan Source: National of Kazakhstan Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan Note: remains significant. FDI inflow is still highly concentrated in the natural resources sector rather than in added value industries / Kazakh banks became the drivers in outward investment to CIS countries (BTA, Kazkom) In the nearest future a large-scale FDI inflow will continue, but will be less intensive, especially in 2008-09 Booz & Company 21 May 2008 25
  • 27. !"#$%&'()$*+,-.&/$0*1($.2*-30$451$&+)4$4('$/1+*)6$7+-3&/$.*-813$9/$ :1)'2*;1$+3.$!<$-3.2)4*-1)6$+3.$+&*1+./$+;;'234$%'*$+&7')4$=>?$@"A FDI/fixed investment FDI Dynamics, bln USD Foreign direct investment/GDP, 2007 `07 CAGR=62% => FDI inflow to Kazakhstan FCHE P2*L1/ BHB 42.9% FR P5+-&+3. BHE 19.6% F>HD F> DH= :2))-+ GHF 33.3% IHI GHI O230+*/ GHF 15.5% GHF R NL*+-31 CH> 14.6% > 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 M 5-&1 DHD 25.6% Q>HE QFH= QFHB QBH> QR J+K+L5)4+3 EHE 19.3% FDI outflow from CAGR=147% Kazakhstan > = G I D F> Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan Source: EIU Comments: FDI Structure, 2007 FDI inflow is highly concentrated in the natural resources sector rather than in value- Inflow Outflow added industries Kazakh banks (for example BTA, Kazkom) actively contributed to the investment outflow to the CIS countries E? Resources In the nearest future FDI inflow will continue to increase but less intensively, C? =B? especially in the period of 2008-09: Construction B=? Start of production at offshore oilfield Kashagan, one of the key resource FC? G>? Financial Services investment project, is delayed till 2012 C? Retail Kazakhstan remains attractive country for foreign investors due to high rates of =C? D? return in the oil and related sectors, relative political stability and cheap available Other B>? work-force Note: FDI geographical breakdown will not demonstrate full data validity provided that in both streams Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan share remains significant Booz & Company 21 May 2008 26
  • 28. - - 30 2 SO WHAT?) 15 4-5 1 10-15 1 + Booz & Company 21 May 2008 27
  • 29. - ! " # . / - Booz & Company 21 May 2008 28
  • 30. Booz & Company 21 May 2008 29