Brexit talk HBS Club of Chicago 2016 08-05
- 1. Brexit Harvard Business School Investment Club of Chicago Warren Nagler MBA 88 G August 5, 2016
- 2. Warren Nagler Education UC Berkeley, BA Economics Harvard Business School, MBA International Business Experience Consulting Booz, Allen & Hamilton Accenture PLC Sunnyslope Capital Advisors (own firm) Corporate PepsiCo Country CFO, PepsiCo Foods International - Canada Masco Corp. Liberty Hardware subsidiary sourced and merchandised 775 hardware products from, primarily, China, Taiwan and Italy for The Home Depot nationally Super-Max World Dubai-based International Personal Care Products Company Private Equity Advisor to Japanese Mega-Bank & Keiretsu Companies VP Finance/Treasurer On-line & Discount Brokerage Securities Firm Advisor and Due Diligence on Acquisition of $110 million sales US food processing operation by a Mexican Corporation Advisor on European Venture Capital Raise ($20 million) Government Advisor to Minister of Commerce and Trade of Ghana: Banking and Financial Services Sector Infrastructure 9/5/2012 1
- 3. Todays Discussion Brexit & How to Invest I. Background on Brexit II. Why is it significant? III. How have Markets been influenced IV. Investment Strategies V. Conclusions & Q&A 9/5/2012 2
- 4. Thank you for joining us for BREXIT or are you here for the Breakfast? Its confusing! 8/5/2016 3 We take our Brexit everyday, already I wish I could drop my pounds as fast as the GBP did since June 24th (including yesterday >-3%) A Scotsman, an Englishman and an Irishman walked into a bar They all had to leave because the Englishman wanted to
- 5. Brexit Implications Central Bank Intervention and Equity Markets Performance Direct relationship between Fed easing and continual injections of liquidity and S&P 500 Performance 9/5/2012 4
- 8. Hard Asset Portfolio Real Estate, Oil Gas MLP, Gold, Govt Bond ETFs 7 In all cases, Buy using Cash, for a long hold period (estimated 12 to 24 months) with no margin loan leverage, and avoid the temptation to invest in Options and Futures unless you have substantial experience.: Fixed Income: 1. VGLT Vanguard long term US Government Fund ETF - it was up 1.87% on Friday when mkts down 6%. 2. US Treasury Inflation Protected/Indexed Bonds Index Fund ETF (Exchange Traded index funds: TIP & VTIP (short term) 3. UDI - Dow Jones Utilities Index, dividends greater than 3% current yield, and trade like a bond 4. GNMA - US Government Agency bond index ETF 5. LQD High Quality Corporate Bond Index ETF Commodities: Gold, Precious Metals etc 1. Gold GLD or SGLD ETF funds that own USD $50 billion in gold bullion. Gold rose so much, that after a weak start to 2016, it is now up 25% YTD. 2. PPLT Physical Platinum Holders ETF for long term and especially, at present (early July 2016) while it appears to be catching up to Golds rapid rise 3 SIVR - Silver - there is a short term shortage of Silver, and it appears to be catching up to Golds rapid rise Foreign Exchange 1. FXY Japanese Yen ETF and Israeli Shekel have been very strong. 2. FXF Swiss Franc ETF. While there are issues in Europe that may affect Switzerland, the Swiss Franc ETF FXF has proven to be a good long term trade. The the total value of Swiss Franc in circulation is 40% backed by Government- owned Gold Bullion Reserves, per Swiss Law. 3. Probably slowly buy GBP Sterling once picture becomes clearer in UK. But I'd wait at least 3 to 6 months. Trading Strategies: Be Conservative & Prudent 1. Don't try to time the VIX -- volatility index. It is a day to day trade
- 9. Q&A You Dont Know, What You Dont Know What do you all believe? 9/5/2012 8