Brief History Of Foresight Futures Alvarenga Carvalho
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This document provides a brief history of foresight and futures studies, outlining some of the key individuals, organizations, and events that have shaped the field over time. It traces the origins from the 1940s through to the 2000s, highlighting pioneers like Herman Kahn and Olaf Helmer in the 1960s and organizations like RAND Corporation, Hudson Institute, and Stanford Research Institute. It also outlines the development of futures work in France with groups like Futuribles and in the UK with initiatives like Foresight at the Department of Trade and Industry. Finally, it mentions some other actors and new initiatives that have contributed to the evolution of futures and foresight.
Brief History Of Foresight Futures Alvarenga Carvalho
- 1. A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT / FUTURES António Alvarenga / Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho Lisboa, 2008
- 2. RAND (Delphi, CIA) Meadows (1971) Forrester (MIT) Kahn (1967) Hudson Institute (1961) Bell, D., (1965) Battelle (IFS) Arlington Helmer/Amara “Institute for the Future” (1968) Ogburn (1929) North Carolina Research Institute (NCRI) (Future Mapping) Stanford Research Institute (SRI) Rhyne Coyle (FAR) Gordon The Futures Group (TIA) Von Kerman (1944) WFSF (1973) Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) (1974) WFS (1966) ORIGINS AND PIONEERS 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000
- 3. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Berger (1957;1964) Commissariat Général du Plan (1962) Massé, P. (1959-1966) Jouvenel, H Futuribles Lesourne, J. Relatório Interfuturs (1979) Godet 1977 1982 (CNAM) 1992 Gonod (1996) Jouvenel, B. (1964) Futuribles (1975) Elf (1964;...) CEPII (1978) France Telecom (1983) DATAR (1963) THE FRENCH SCHOOL - LA PROSPECTIVE
- 4. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Schwartz (1991) Heijden (1996; 2002) Porter (1985) Schoemaker 1993; 1995 Decision Strategies International Wack Shell (1971 – 1981) HBR (1985) Global Business Network GBN (1987) De Geus (1988) Shell (1967-Presente) Hamel (1994) Ansoff (1965) Weick (1995) Mintzberg (1994) Kelly (2001) Christensen (1997) SHELL’S INFLUENCE A FEW STRATEGY AND INNOVATION LANDMARKS
- 5. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Ben Martin (1989; 1995) Ian Miles (SPRU -> PREST) Michael Keenan (PREST) Jantsch (1967) SPRU (Sussex) (1966) C. Freeman (1974) Foresight (DTI) (1994) PM Foresight Unit UK’S FORESIGHT
- 6. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Wendel Bell (1997) Slaughter Dator Inayatullah Peter Bishop (Houston) Finland (FFA; Turku University; TEKES; SITRA; NOKIA; ...) FAST (CE) (1979) Cellule de Prospective (CE) (1989) Association of Professional Futurists - APF Shaping Tomorrow Trendwatching.com COST A22 Millennium Project OTHER KEY ACTORS AND NEW INITIATIVES European Futurists Conference Lucerne