Business as unusual
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This document summarizes the performance of different technology sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that ecommerce, streaming, gaming, and food delivery companies have seen rising stock prices, while travel, advertising, retail, and mobility companies have been hit hard. It also notes that video conferencing, health, and food delivery platforms are outperforming the overall market. The document discusses how the pandemic has led to an unprecedented shift to online grocery shopping in Europe. It analyzes the structural versus cyclical impacts of the crisis and finds that some sectors like food delivery are benefiting from both short and long-term trends. The challenges for online grocery delivery companies to meet skyrocketing demand are also summarized.
Business as unusual
- 3. Lets start with the big picture
- 4. Amazon and Netflix outperform. Apple, Google, FB market performance. Share price performancex Current market cap % change since 31 Jan Ecommerce Platform $ 919B (0.6%) TV Streaming $ 146B (3%) Search Advertising $ 735B (27%) Electronics $ 1.0T (29%) S&P500 - (32%) Social Advertising $ 427B (33%)2 dec2019 23 dec 2019 15 jan2020 6 feb2020 28 feb2019 20 mar2020 40% 20% 0% (10%) (20%) (30%) (40%) 31 January Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21.
- 5. Travel, advertising, retail and mobility have been hit hard. Current market cap % change since 31 Jan S&P500 (33%) Real estate Marketplace $ 4.0B (36%) Mobility & Fooddelivery $ 37B (42%) Retail Payments $17B (50%) Advertising $ 34B (50%) Mobility $ 7.0B (55%) Travel $ 7.0B (56%) Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21. 2 dec2019 23 dec 2019 15 jan2020 6 feb2020 28 feb2019 20 mar2020 40% 20% 0% (20%) (40%) (60%) (80%) Share price performancex 31 January
- 6. Video conferencing, health and food delivery are outperforming the market. Current market cap % change since 31 Jan Videoconferencing SaaS $ 36B 77% Telemedicine Health $ 10B 37% Food Groceries $ 10B 4% Games $ 6B (2%) Food Delivery $ 14B (6%) S&P500 - (33%) 2 dec2019 23 dec 2019 15 jan2020 6 feb2020 28 feb2019 20 mar2020 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% (20%) (40%) (20%) Source: Dealroom.co, Google Finance as of March 21. Share price performancex 31 January
- 7. Health, streaming, gaming, ecommerce, andfood delivery rise worldwide Market (1) (4%) (8%) (13%) (15%) (17%) (20%) (20%) (23%) (24%) (26%) (26%) (27%) (30%) (30%) (31%) (31%) (32%) (38%) (38%) (38%) (39%) (40%) (41%) (45%) (49%) (50%) (60%) (50%) (40%) (30%) (20%) (10%) 20% 13% 10% Share price performancex Source: Dealroom.co and Google Finance. 1) Note: Nasdaq and S&P500 dropped roughly 25% in the same period.
- 8. eCommerce, food and health strive in Europe Source: Dealroom.co and Google Finance. 36% 25% 10% (5%) (17%) (22%) (27%) (32%) (36%) (37%) (44%) (53%) (67%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) 20% 40% 60% Zooplus(0.7B,eCommerce) JustEat(5.5B,Food) ShopApothekee(0.7B,Health) ZurRose(1.1B,Health) HelloFresh(4B,Food) Ocado(10.3B,Food) AxelSpringer(6.8B,Marketplaces) Iliad(7B,Communications) Ericsson(1.9B,Communications) TeamViewer(5.8B,Saas) DeliveryHero(14.1B,Food) Spotify(21.5B,Streaming) Adyen(21.3B,Fintech) BooztFashion(0.2B,Fashion) Ingenico(4.7B,Fintech) UnitedInternet(5.1B,Communications) WoltersKluwer(16.6B,SaaS) ASML(94B,Semiconductors) RocketInternet(2.4B,Diversifiedinternet) TakeAway.com(9.6B,Food) DassaultSystems(34.9B,SaaS) Scout24(5.2B,Marketplaces) SAP(118B,Saas) Moneysupermarket(1.4B,Fintech) Elastic(3.8B,Saas) Philips(29.5B,Diversified) SageGroup(6.5B,Fintech) Worldline(8.8B,Fintech) GlobalFashionGroup(0.3B,Fashion) Nokia(15B,Communications) Zalando(7.5B,Fashion) Hexagon(11.9B,Semiconductors) Nexi(5.3B,Fintech) AvastSoftware(3.4B,Security) Zendesk(6B,Communications) AutoTrader(3.7B,CarSales) Yandex(9.2B,eCommerce) Farfetch(2.3B,Fashion) Kinnevik(3.7B,Internet) ASM(3.8B,Semiconductors) Rightmove(4B,RealEstate) WireCard(10.5B,Fintech) WorldPay(8.5B,Fintech) Temenos(6.8B,Fintech) Booking.com(45B,Travel) Boohoo.com(2.4B,Fashion) FundingCircle(0.2B,Fintech) IHSMarkit(17.8B,Fintech) Stmicroelectr.(15B,Semiconductors) Siemens(54B,Diversified) Capgemini(10.2B,Consulting) Nemetschek(4.1B,Saas) NXP(19.1B,Semiconductors) Amadeus(19.3B,Travel) Infineon(14.6B,Semiconductors) Trivago(0.5B,Travel) GoCompare(0.2B,Fintech) WPP(36.7B,Marketing) TheTrainline(1.2B,Travel) Lastminute.com(0.2B,Travel) Holidaycheck(0.1B,Travel) Purplebricks(0.1B,Realestate) ASOS(1.1B,Fashion) OnTheBeach(0.2B,Travel) EdreamsOdigeo(0.2B,Travel) Hostelworld(0.1B,Travel) Absolute % change
- 9. Structural vs. cyclical impact: a mental framework. Source: Dealroom.co Structural positive Structural negative Cyclical negative Cyclical positive MealkitsOnline groceries Cleantech Ride hailing Collaboration software Jobs Discretionary eCommerce Sharing economy Carsharing Telehealth Passion economy Freelance Gig economy Gaming Realestate Travel Restauranttech Streaming video/musicFintech Telecom/ hosting Frontier tech Food delivery Staples eCommerce Both Structural andcyclical impact, because crisis is accelerating a trend that was alreadyunderway. Will the sharing economy bunce back fully or only partially? Biotech Online eduction Passion economy and freelance couldbenefit from social distancing in the long run (morecontroversial)
- 11. 22-Jan 29-Jan 5-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar Source: Google Zeitgeist online boodschappen Unprecedented shift of grocery demand towards online
- 12. And not only more customers, but also very different demand 30 January 2020 Top Keywords Conv Adds / Search 1 kipfilet 67% 0.8 2 eieren 71% 0.8 3 chips 76% 1.3 4 kaas 54% 0.7 5 geraspte kaas 73% 0.8 Top Keywords Conv Adds / Search 1 wc papier 75% 1.1 2 paracetamol 74% 1.1 3 bloem 73% 1.2 4 eieren 68% 0.8 5 toiletpapier 75% 1.1 18 March 2020
- 13. 13CONFIDENTIAL
- 14. Online delivery faces similar challenges as hospitals Health Secure health of all employees across all locations Capacity Maintain and grow capacity to keep food supply running
- 15. Unprecedented demand grabs all capacity
- 16. and infra load skyrockets
- 17. From 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 6:00 10:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Requests per minute from Picnic App to Picnic Platform
- 18. To 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 6:00 10:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 15x Requests per minute from Picnic App to Picnic Platform
- 19. Flattening the curve is no option
- 20. 20CONFIDENTIAL Scale up as much as you can!
- 21. Pod scaling isnt 艶稼看顎乙鞄
- 22. Pod scaling isnt 艶稼看顎乙鞄 advanced cluster scaling required
- 23. 23CONFIDENTIAL Reinvent yourself and 10x planned initiatives
- 24. Come join the team! http://join.picnic.app
Editor's Notes
- #25: Voice interfaces Autonomous warehouses Self-driving delivery Trading food is one of the oldest and most fundamental business of humans. We do it since thousands of years. But think about, how are you consuming now media, and how did it your parents do it 20 years back? How do you comunidate now, and how did your parents do 20 years ago? How do you do your finance, and how did you pranets do 20 years ago? And now in contrast, how are you shopping for your groceries, and how did your parents do it? Sure, some will already use Picnic, some may use mealkit serives. But for many digital innovation and disruption hasnt have any impact to buying your groceries. And our mission is simple: We want to change how your shop for your grociers. We want to make it simple, fun and affordable. We started the business with a very simple question: Why?