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Calculating the future value analysis in programs preventing runaways

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Dick van Vlooten
Dick van Vlooten

TO predict. To control. To report. A spreadsheet solution for midsize programs. Spreadsheets itself are here. http://bit.ly/RHUqmb

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Calculating the future Value analysis predicts program progress! An Excell tool for mid sized programs no more runaways!
Programs realizestrategicchange They are lengthy, defined in broad terms, changing during execution
Programs are in runaway danger McKinsey: Only 30 percent of change programs succeed The Economist, a 2004 survey: 57% of the companies had been unsuccessful in executing on strategic initiatives over the previous three years.
Mid sized programs lack adequate control The control system relies on project managers estimates and actual costs No facts, no trends, no coherence
No facts: driving forward looking back Progress is based on the past, estimates are based on opinions Real progress is unknown
No trends: Finding the way one inch before your feet Most control systems show you data at a specific time, not time based trends
No coherence: Projects and business will interfere A program is not just a set of independent projects, each on their way It is the coherence that needs to be managed
Been there, did the tour, got the T-shirt. Lets share! If you manage by facts, have trend- reporting, and make coherence visible You can control a mid-sized program
Program Future Calculator We have created a free Excel spreadsheet for medium sized programs, for a program manager that needs to create his own control, in a cost oriented environment
Example: Projects in a mid sized program The usual suspects: multiple projects, startdates, budgets See next sheet for some more usual data demo PROJECT ID PROJECT NAME STARTDATE PLANNED FINISH DATE BUDGETTED COSTS Integral BUDGETTED COSTS Time Based BUDGETTED COSTS Cap Inv Project Totals 16,948 11,750 5,198 7 Example, Finished on time in budget 2-jan-12 20-jun-12 1,215 810 405 31 Example, finished too late over budget 11-feb-12 21-mei-12 1,380 920 460 22 Example, cap invest overspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 1,620 1,080 540 34 Example, too late on budget 1-apr-12 7-okt-12 1,418 945 473 56 Example, on time over budget 1-apr-12 8-sep-12 1,125 750 375 78 Example, premature close 11-mei-12 8-okt-12 1,013 675 338 65 Example, planned over the year 20-jun-12 25-feb-13 1,823 1,215 608 32 Example, running late over the year 21-mei-12 18-okt-12 1,088 725 363 23 Example, no Cap Inv 30-jun-12 27-nov-12 675 675 - 5757 Example, capital investment underspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 2,900 2,160 740 543 Future project 1 1-sep-12 10-dec-12 810 540 270 876 Future project 2 15-nov-12 23-feb-13 870 580 290 392923 Late project 1-mrt-12 29-jul-12 1,013 675 338
Example contd.: Actuals on these projects Nothing new so far, just a spreadsheet But now we start the magic
Magic 1: % ready % ready, as agreed upon up front, based on facts This allows Value Analysis based predictions
Magic 2: trends Excel at its best: time based graphs So patterns are visible, based on actuals and Value Analysis
Magic 3: Coherence Seeing where you are and where you are headed To avoid collisions with others
Program control: Facts, trends, coherence Download this spreadsheet at www.dicuore.nl Or at LinkedIn company page diCuore The Program Future Calculator
Deliberately left blank
Some more screenshots of the Program Future Calculator In one fgure: the budget, actuals and a prognosis
Project portfolio Cash flowneed of the project portfolio
Addaptive Program Budget Because budget cuts and creative funding exist Program Budget Source TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET THIS YEAR TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET NEXT YEAR TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET 17,230 10,710 6,520 1 BUDGT SOURCE 1 19,350 12,000 7,350 2 BUDGET SOURCE 2 630 210 420 3 BUDGET SOURCE 3 300 300 - 4 BUDGET CUT 1 (1,500) (1,500) - 5 BUDGET CUT 2 (300) (300) - 6 Budget cut next year (1,250) - (1,250)
Independent Program vs Projects Portfolio budget Because projects appear out of nowhere to enter your program
Clear overview of status Because Steering Committees are pressed for time
Prognoses To control in stead of to react andrepair
Facts, trends and coherence: Program Future Calculator

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Calculating the future value analysis in programs preventing runaways

  • 1. Calculating the future Value analysis predicts program progress! An Excell tool for mid sized programs no more runaways!
  • 2. Programs realizestrategicchange They are lengthy, defined in broad terms, changing during execution
  • 3. Programs are in runaway danger McKinsey: Only 30 percent of change programs succeed The Economist, a 2004 survey: 57% of the companies had been unsuccessful in executing on strategic initiatives over the previous three years.
  • 4. Mid sized programs lack adequate control The control system relies on project managers estimates and actual costs No facts, no trends, no coherence
  • 5. No facts: driving forward looking back Progress is based on the past, estimates are based on opinions Real progress is unknown
  • 6. No trends: Finding the way one inch before your feet Most control systems show you data at a specific time, not time based trends
  • 7. No coherence: Projects and business will interfere A program is not just a set of independent projects, each on their way It is the coherence that needs to be managed
  • 8. Been there, did the tour, got the T-shirt. Lets share! If you manage by facts, have trend- reporting, and make coherence visible You can control a mid-sized program
  • 9. Program Future Calculator We have created a free Excel spreadsheet for medium sized programs, for a program manager that needs to create his own control, in a cost oriented environment
  • 10. Example: Projects in a mid sized program The usual suspects: multiple projects, startdates, budgets See next sheet for some more usual data demo PROJECT ID PROJECT NAME STARTDATE PLANNED FINISH DATE BUDGETTED COSTS Integral BUDGETTED COSTS Time Based BUDGETTED COSTS Cap Inv Project Totals 16,948 11,750 5,198 7 Example, Finished on time in budget 2-jan-12 20-jun-12 1,215 810 405 31 Example, finished too late over budget 11-feb-12 21-mei-12 1,380 920 460 22 Example, cap invest overspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 1,620 1,080 540 34 Example, too late on budget 1-apr-12 7-okt-12 1,418 945 473 56 Example, on time over budget 1-apr-12 8-sep-12 1,125 750 375 78 Example, premature close 11-mei-12 8-okt-12 1,013 675 338 65 Example, planned over the year 20-jun-12 25-feb-13 1,823 1,215 608 32 Example, running late over the year 21-mei-12 18-okt-12 1,088 725 363 23 Example, no Cap Inv 30-jun-12 27-nov-12 675 675 - 5757 Example, capital investment underspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 2,900 2,160 740 543 Future project 1 1-sep-12 10-dec-12 810 540 270 876 Future project 2 15-nov-12 23-feb-13 870 580 290 392923 Late project 1-mrt-12 29-jul-12 1,013 675 338
  • 11. Example contd.: Actuals on these projects Nothing new so far, just a spreadsheet But now we start the magic
  • 12. Magic 1: % ready % ready, as agreed upon up front, based on facts This allows Value Analysis based predictions
  • 13. Magic 2: trends Excel at its best: time based graphs So patterns are visible, based on actuals and Value Analysis
  • 14. Magic 3: Coherence Seeing where you are and where you are headed To avoid collisions with others
  • 15. Program control: Facts, trends, coherence Download this spreadsheet at www.dicuore.nl Or at LinkedIn company page diCuore The Program Future Calculator
  • 17. Some more screenshots of the Program Future Calculator In one fgure: the budget, actuals and a prognosis
  • 18. Project portfolio Cash flowneed of the project portfolio
  • 19. Addaptive Program Budget Because budget cuts and creative funding exist Program Budget Source TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET THIS YEAR TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET NEXT YEAR TOTAL PROGRAM BUDGET 17,230 10,710 6,520 1 BUDGT SOURCE 1 19,350 12,000 7,350 2 BUDGET SOURCE 2 630 210 420 3 BUDGET SOURCE 3 300 300 - 4 BUDGET CUT 1 (1,500) (1,500) - 5 BUDGET CUT 2 (300) (300) - 6 Budget cut next year (1,250) - (1,250)
  • 20. Independent Program vs Projects Portfolio budget Because projects appear out of nowhere to enter your program
  • 21. Clear overview of status Because Steering Committees are pressed for time
  • 22. Prognoses To control in stead of to react andrepair
  • 23. Facts, trends and coherence: Program Future Calculator