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California housing forecast 2013 (Summary)

Ronny Budiutama
Ronny Budiutama

The document provides a forecast for the California housing market in 2013. It predicts that in 2013, home sales will increase by 1.3% and the median home price will rise by 5.7% compared to 2012. The dollar volume of home sales is also expected to increase, up 7% in 2013 after a 16.5% rise in 2012. The forecast expects continued recovery in the California housing market in 2013, with both home sales transactions and median home prices increasing compared to 2012 levels.

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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST October 2012
California Housing Market Outlook Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f SFH Resales (000s) 441.81 546.86 492.29 497.86 523.25 530 % Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3%% Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3% Median Price ($000s) 348.5$ 275.0$ 305.0$ 286.0$ 317.0$ 335.0$ % Change -37.8% -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 10.9% 5.7% 30-Yr FRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0% 1-Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
Recovery Will Continue in 2013, with Both Sales and the Median Price Up Units (Thousand) 523.3530.0 600 700 Sales of Existing Detached Homes $500 $600 Median Price Price (Thousand) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速 523.3530.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f $317 $335 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f
Dollar Volume of Sales Slowly Improving Up 16.5% in 2012, Up 7.0% in 2013 $327 $266 5% 10% 15% 20% $250 $300 $350 $400 $ Volume of Sales Percent Change % Change$ in Billion -54% $194 $154 $150 $150 $142 $166 $178 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速
U.S. Economic Outlook Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f US GDP -0.30% -3.50% 3.00% 1.70% 2.00% 2.30% Nonfarm Job Growth -0.60% -4.40% -0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60%Nonfarm Job Growth -0.60% -4.40% -0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% Unemployment 5.80% 9.30% 9.60% 9.00% 8.20% 8.00% CPI 3.80% -0.40% 1.60% 3.20% 2.00% 2.10% Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.50% 0.90% 1.80% 1.30% 1.60% 1.60%
California Economic Outlook Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f Nonfarm Job Growth -1.3% -6.0% -1.1% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% Unemployment Rate 7.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9%Unemployment Rate 7.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9% Population Growth 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.0% -3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0%

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California housing forecast 2013 (Summary)

  • 2. California Housing Market Outlook Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f SFH Resales (000s) 441.81 546.86 492.29 497.86 523.25 530 % Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3%% Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3% Median Price ($000s) 348.5$ 275.0$ 305.0$ 286.0$ 317.0$ 335.0$ % Change -37.8% -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 10.9% 5.7% 30-Yr FRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0% 1-Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
  • 3. Recovery Will Continue in 2013, with Both Sales and the Median Price Up Units (Thousand) 523.3530.0 600 700 Sales of Existing Detached Homes $500 $600 Median Price Price (Thousand) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速 523.3530.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f $317 $335 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f
  • 4. Dollar Volume of Sales Slowly Improving Up 16.5% in 2012, Up 7.0% in 2013 $327 $266 5% 10% 15% 20% $250 $300 $350 $400 $ Volume of Sales Percent Change % Change$ in Billion -54% $194 $154 $150 $150 $142 $166 $178 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速
  • 5. U.S. Economic Outlook Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f US GDP -0.30% -3.50% 3.00% 1.70% 2.00% 2.30% Nonfarm Job Growth -0.60% -4.40% -0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60%Nonfarm Job Growth -0.60% -4.40% -0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% Unemployment 5.80% 9.30% 9.60% 9.00% 8.20% 8.00% CPI 3.80% -0.40% 1.60% 3.20% 2.00% 2.10% Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.50% 0.90% 1.80% 1.30% 1.60% 1.60%
  • 6. California Economic Outlook Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f Nonfarm Job Growth -1.3% -6.0% -1.1% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% Unemployment Rate 7.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9%Unemployment Rate 7.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9% Population Growth 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.0% -3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0%