Capital Goods Boom Bust Or Wobble 20110816
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The July housing starts data showed a large raw decline, but the seasonally adjusted number was adjusted upwards using a higher seasonal factor compared to the previous year. If using the prior year's seasonal factor, housing starts would have declined 12% from June, and the 12-month moving average is at the lowest level, signaling at least a wobble in the housing sector and far from a boom.
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Capital Goods Boom Bust Or Wobble 20110816
- 1. Capital Goods: Boom, Bust or Wobble?Today we got the July reading for Housing Starts. The July raw number was a disaster, but annualized and seasonally adjusted number got adjusted with a seasonal factor of 102,1 compared to 112,4 in 2010. Using the 2010 factor, the reading would be 542K units, a drop from June of 12%. The 12-month moving average is at all-time lows and dipped again in July. Looks like at least wobble, definitely far to a next boom.16/08/2011
- 4. TrondJohannessenDirectorPhimark BV+31 620 59 1015trond@phimark.com16/08/2011