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The document is a chapter from a corporate finance textbook that discusses various methods for valuing stocks, including the dividend discount model and constant growth dividend discount model. It also covers the efficient market hypothesis and random walk theory, which suggest that stock price movements cannot be predicted from past trends and reflect all available information.

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Chapter 6 Fundamentals of Corporate Finance Fifth Edition 際際滷s by Matthew Will McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Valuing Stocks
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 2 Topics Covered Stocks and the Stock Market Book Values, Liquidation Values and Market Values Valuing Common Stocks Simplifying the Dividend Discount Model Growth Stocks and Income Stocks There are no free lunches on Wall Street Market Anomilies and Behavioral Finance
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 3 Stocks & Stock Market Primary Market - Place where the sale of new stock first occurs. Initial Public Offering (IPO) - First offering of stock to the general public. Seasoned Issue - Sale of new shares by a firm that has already been through an IPO
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 4 Stocks & Stock Market Common Stock - Ownership shares in a publicly held corporation. Secondary Market - market in which already issued securities are traded by investors. Dividend - Periodic cash distribution from the firm to the shareholders. P/E Ratio - Price per share divided by earnings per share.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 5 Stocks & Stock Market Book Value - Net worth of the firm according to the balance sheet. Liquidation Value - Net proceeds that would be realized by selling the firms assets and paying off its creditors. Market Value Balance Sheet - Financial statement that uses market value of assets and liabilities.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 6 Valuing Common Stocks Expected Return - The percentage yield that an investor forecasts from a specific investment over a set period of time. Sometimes called the holding period return (HPR). Expected Return r Div P P P 1 1 0 0
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 7 Valuing Common Stocks The formula can be broken into two parts. Dividend Yield + Capital Appreciation Expected Return r Div P P P P 1 0 1 0 0
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 8 Valuing Common Stocks Dividend Discount Model - Computation of todays stock price which states that share value equals the present value of all expected future dividends. H - Time horizon for your investment. P Div r Div r Div P r H H H 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 ( ) ( ) ... ( )
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 9 Valuing Common Stocks Example Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24, and $3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return?
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 10 Valuing Common Stocks Example Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24, and $3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return? PV PV 300 1 12 324 1 12 350 94 48 1 12 00 1 2 3 . ( . ) . ( . ) . . ( . ) $75.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 11 Blue Skies Value 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Value per share, dollars 1 2 3 10 20 30 50 100 Investment Horizon, Years PV (Terminal Value) PV (Dividends)
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 12 Valuing Common Stocks If we forecast no growth, and plan to hold out stock indefinitely, we will then value the stock as a PERPETUITY. Perpetuity P Div r or EPS r 0 1 1 Assumes all earnings are paid to shareholders.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 13 Valuing Common Stocks Constant Growth DDM - A version of the dividend growth model in which dividends grow at a constant rate (Gordon Growth Model). P Div r g 0 1 Given any combination of variables in the equation, you can solve for the unknown variable.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 14 Valuing Common Stocks Example What is the value of a stock that expects to pay a $3.00 dividend next year, and then increase the dividend at a rate of 8% per year, indefinitely? Assume a 12% expected return. P Div r g 0 1 00 12 08 00 $3. . . $75.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 15 Valuing Common Stocks Example- continued If the same stock is selling for $100 in the stock market, what might the market be assuming about the growth in dividends? $100 $3. . . 00 12 09 g g Answer The market is assuming the dividend will grow at 9% per year, indefinitely.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 16 Valuing Common Stocks If a firm elects to pay a lower dividend, and reinvest the funds, the stock price may increase because future dividends may be higher. Payout Ratio - Fraction of earnings paid out as dividends Plowback Ratio - Fraction of earnings retained by the firm.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 17 Valuing Common Stocks Growth can be derived from applying the return on equity to the percentage of earnings plowed back into operations. g = return on equity X plowback ratio
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 18 Valuing Common Stocks Example Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00 dividend next year, which represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a 12% expected return. Instead, we decide to plow back 40% of the earnings at the firms current return on equity of 20%. What is the value of the stock before and after the plowback decision?
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 19 Valuing Common Stocks Example Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00 dividend next year, which represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a 12% expected return. Instead, we decide to blow back 40% of the earnings at the firms current return on equity of 20%. What is the value of the stock before and after the plowback decision? P0 5 12 67 . $41. No Growth With Growth g P . . . . . $75. 20 40 08 3 12 08 00 0
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 20 Valuing Common Stocks Example - continued If the company did not plowback some earnings, the stock price would remain at $41.67. With the plowback, the price rose to $75.00. The difference between these two numbers (75.00- 41.67=33.33) is called the Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO).
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 21 Valuing Common Stocks Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO) - Net present value of a firms future investments. Sustainable Growth Rate - Steady rate at which a firm can grow: plowback ratio X return on equity.
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 22 No Free Lunches Technical Analysts Forecast stock prices based on the watching the fluctuations in historical prices (thus wiggle watchers)
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 23 No Free Lunches Scatter Plot of NYSE Composite Index over two successive weeks. Wheres the pattern?
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 24 Random Walk Theory The movement of stock prices from day to day DO NOT reflect any pattern. Statistically speaking, the movement of stock prices is random (skewed positive over the long term).
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 25 Random Walk Theory $103.00 $100.00 $106.09 $100.43 $97.50 $100.43 $95.06 Coin Toss Game Heads Heads Heads Tails Tails Tails
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 26 Random Walk Theory S&P 500 Five Year Trend? or 5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game? 80 130 180 Month Level
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 27 Random Walk Theory S&P 500 Five Year Trend? or 5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game? 80 130 180 230 Month Level
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 28 Random Walk Theory Last Month This Month Next Month 1,300 1,200 1,100 Market Index Cycles disappear once identified
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 29 Another Tool Fundamental Analysts Research the value of stocks using NPV and other measurements of cash flow
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 30 Efficient Market Theory Weak Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all historical information Semi-Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all publicly available information Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all information, both public and private
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 31 Efficient Market Theory -16 -11 -6 -1 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 Days Relative to annoncement date Cumulative Abnormal Return (%) Announcement Date
Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 32 Behavioral Finance Attitudes towards risk Beliefs about probabilities

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chap006.ppt

  • 1. Chapter 6 Fundamentals of Corporate Finance Fifth Edition 際際滷s by Matthew Will McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Valuing Stocks
  • 2. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 2 Topics Covered Stocks and the Stock Market Book Values, Liquidation Values and Market Values Valuing Common Stocks Simplifying the Dividend Discount Model Growth Stocks and Income Stocks There are no free lunches on Wall Street Market Anomilies and Behavioral Finance
  • 3. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 3 Stocks & Stock Market Primary Market - Place where the sale of new stock first occurs. Initial Public Offering (IPO) - First offering of stock to the general public. Seasoned Issue - Sale of new shares by a firm that has already been through an IPO
  • 4. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 4 Stocks & Stock Market Common Stock - Ownership shares in a publicly held corporation. Secondary Market - market in which already issued securities are traded by investors. Dividend - Periodic cash distribution from the firm to the shareholders. P/E Ratio - Price per share divided by earnings per share.
  • 5. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 5 Stocks & Stock Market Book Value - Net worth of the firm according to the balance sheet. Liquidation Value - Net proceeds that would be realized by selling the firms assets and paying off its creditors. Market Value Balance Sheet - Financial statement that uses market value of assets and liabilities.
  • 6. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 6 Valuing Common Stocks Expected Return - The percentage yield that an investor forecasts from a specific investment over a set period of time. Sometimes called the holding period return (HPR). Expected Return r Div P P P 1 1 0 0
  • 7. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 7 Valuing Common Stocks The formula can be broken into two parts. Dividend Yield + Capital Appreciation Expected Return r Div P P P P 1 0 1 0 0
  • 8. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 8 Valuing Common Stocks Dividend Discount Model - Computation of todays stock price which states that share value equals the present value of all expected future dividends. H - Time horizon for your investment. P Div r Div r Div P r H H H 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 ( ) ( ) ... ( )
  • 9. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 9 Valuing Common Stocks Example Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24, and $3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return?
  • 10. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 10 Valuing Common Stocks Example Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24, and $3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return? PV PV 300 1 12 324 1 12 350 94 48 1 12 00 1 2 3 . ( . ) . ( . ) . . ( . ) $75.
  • 11. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 11 Blue Skies Value 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Value per share, dollars 1 2 3 10 20 30 50 100 Investment Horizon, Years PV (Terminal Value) PV (Dividends)
  • 12. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 12 Valuing Common Stocks If we forecast no growth, and plan to hold out stock indefinitely, we will then value the stock as a PERPETUITY. Perpetuity P Div r or EPS r 0 1 1 Assumes all earnings are paid to shareholders.
  • 13. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 13 Valuing Common Stocks Constant Growth DDM - A version of the dividend growth model in which dividends grow at a constant rate (Gordon Growth Model). P Div r g 0 1 Given any combination of variables in the equation, you can solve for the unknown variable.
  • 14. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 14 Valuing Common Stocks Example What is the value of a stock that expects to pay a $3.00 dividend next year, and then increase the dividend at a rate of 8% per year, indefinitely? Assume a 12% expected return. P Div r g 0 1 00 12 08 00 $3. . . $75.
  • 15. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 15 Valuing Common Stocks Example- continued If the same stock is selling for $100 in the stock market, what might the market be assuming about the growth in dividends? $100 $3. . . 00 12 09 g g Answer The market is assuming the dividend will grow at 9% per year, indefinitely.
  • 16. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 16 Valuing Common Stocks If a firm elects to pay a lower dividend, and reinvest the funds, the stock price may increase because future dividends may be higher. Payout Ratio - Fraction of earnings paid out as dividends Plowback Ratio - Fraction of earnings retained by the firm.
  • 17. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 17 Valuing Common Stocks Growth can be derived from applying the return on equity to the percentage of earnings plowed back into operations. g = return on equity X plowback ratio
  • 18. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 18 Valuing Common Stocks Example Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00 dividend next year, which represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a 12% expected return. Instead, we decide to plow back 40% of the earnings at the firms current return on equity of 20%. What is the value of the stock before and after the plowback decision?
  • 19. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 19 Valuing Common Stocks Example Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00 dividend next year, which represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a 12% expected return. Instead, we decide to blow back 40% of the earnings at the firms current return on equity of 20%. What is the value of the stock before and after the plowback decision? P0 5 12 67 . $41. No Growth With Growth g P . . . . . $75. 20 40 08 3 12 08 00 0
  • 20. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 20 Valuing Common Stocks Example - continued If the company did not plowback some earnings, the stock price would remain at $41.67. With the plowback, the price rose to $75.00. The difference between these two numbers (75.00- 41.67=33.33) is called the Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO).
  • 21. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 21 Valuing Common Stocks Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO) - Net present value of a firms future investments. Sustainable Growth Rate - Steady rate at which a firm can grow: plowback ratio X return on equity.
  • 22. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 22 No Free Lunches Technical Analysts Forecast stock prices based on the watching the fluctuations in historical prices (thus wiggle watchers)
  • 23. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 23 No Free Lunches Scatter Plot of NYSE Composite Index over two successive weeks. Wheres the pattern?
  • 24. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 24 Random Walk Theory The movement of stock prices from day to day DO NOT reflect any pattern. Statistically speaking, the movement of stock prices is random (skewed positive over the long term).
  • 25. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 25 Random Walk Theory $103.00 $100.00 $106.09 $100.43 $97.50 $100.43 $95.06 Coin Toss Game Heads Heads Heads Tails Tails Tails
  • 26. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 26 Random Walk Theory S&P 500 Five Year Trend? or 5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game? 80 130 180 Month Level
  • 27. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 27 Random Walk Theory S&P 500 Five Year Trend? or 5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game? 80 130 180 230 Month Level
  • 28. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 28 Random Walk Theory Last Month This Month Next Month 1,300 1,200 1,100 Market Index Cycles disappear once identified
  • 29. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 29 Another Tool Fundamental Analysts Research the value of stocks using NPV and other measurements of cash flow
  • 30. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 30 Efficient Market Theory Weak Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all historical information Semi-Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all publicly available information Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all information, both public and private
  • 31. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 31 Efficient Market Theory -16 -11 -6 -1 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 Days Relative to annoncement date Cumulative Abnormal Return (%) Announcement Date
  • 32. Copyright 息 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin 6- 32 Behavioral Finance Attitudes towards risk Beliefs about probabilities

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