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© 2019 | Chunka Mui
Mastering the 4th Industrial Revolution
Zoom Work Happy Series
July 20, 2023
Chunka Mui
chunka.mui@gmail.com
www.chunkamui.com

Strategy Technology
Innovation
Advantage
Organizational Focus

“A futurist?
Well, I hope you adults
don’t mess mine up.”
Zoe’s Question

Poll
Do you think that we “adults” are in
danger of messing up our children’s
future?
o Yes
o No

How can we
“adults” build a
future we can
proudly leave to
our kids?

Strategy Technology
Innovation
Advantage
Organizational
Competitive
Advantage
Organizational
Purpose
Societal
Needs
Future
Perfect
Societal Focus
The Biggest Personal and Professional
Opportunity of Our Lifetimes

“The best way
to predict the future
is to invent it.”
— Alan Kay

3 Lessons

Make
a Third List

Daily Weekly

Daily Weekly “Third List”

Daily Weekly Third List
Chicago
• O’Hare
expansion
• Underfunded
Pensions
• Universal
preschool
• Infrastructure
• Sustainability

Chicago River Walk

Daily Weekly “Third List”
Inventing the Future
Make a Third List

Embrace
the Laws of Zero

7 Laws of Zero
Computing Networks
Water Energy
Genomics
Transportation
Information
The Building Blocks

Exponential Increases in Capability
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Incremental
Change
Time
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies

Driving Relative Cost to Zero
Relative Cost
of Technology
Time
Cost

Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Laws of Zero
Put That Supercomputer in Your Pocket
Incremental
Change
Zero to 6.25B Users
In <20 years
$1.14T
Revenue
(2021)
Source: Statistica, 2022
Time

Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Laws of Zero
Enables and Accelerates Generative AI
Incremental
Change
Time
• Trillions of training data tokens
• Trillions of model parameters
• 10,000 GPUs
• Resources in exaflops (10^18)
• 100m users in 2 months
• 1.6 Billion visits (June)

Driving Innovation and Disruption
in Every Industry
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Time

Beyond Digital: Genomics
“Reading and Editing the Language of Life”
Last 20 Years
One Million Times
Faster
Cheaper
Genomics

Healthcare Industry Disruption
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Acute Care
Personalized
Health Care
Time

Price of Solar Modules Since 1976
Source: Max Roser
99.6%

Li-ion Batteries since 2008
Source: US DoE
89%

Energy Industry Disruption
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Fossil
Fuels
Time
Renewables
Energy

Transportation Industry
Disruption

Poll
Which technology ”building blocks” will have the
most impact on your industry? (Multiple choice)
o Computing (including cloud and quantum)
o Communications
o Information (including AI and Big Data)
o Genomics
o Water
o Energy
o Transportation

The Building Blocks
are not
the Buildings

Pathetic Futures
Are Easy To Imagine
Climate
Disaster
Big Brother
Numbed by
Technology
Nuclear
Doomsday
Inequity and
Revolution

Laws of Zero
Enable Extraordinary Opportunities…
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Incremental
Change
… for us “adults” to
build a future we
can proudly leave
to our kids.

Write Your
Future History

“We choose
to go to the
moon.”
Future Histories
Harness the Power of Narratives

Future Histories
• An ambitious yet attainable scenario by a specific date
• Does not predict the future; rather, describes the desired future
• Far enough out to not worry about short-term noise, constraints
and implementation details (yet)
• Near enough to allow realistic estimates of what will likely be
technologically possible
• Working backwards to today, one can chart the possible paths to
that future
• Serves to “organize and measure the best of our energies and
skills” to build that future — starting today

Next Quarter
Next year
Now
Typical Planning Window

Future
Date
Now
Planning Window
If you don’t know
where you’re going,
you might not get
there.

Given the building blocks at
our disposal, what would be
ridiculous not to have?
Now Future
Date

Now
Planning Window
Future
Date

Now
Working backwards from the
future, what are key milestones
for success?
Planning Window
Future
Date

Many Moonshots Harder Than Sending
Humans to the Moon

Climate
2050
It’d be ridiculous if we didn’t
significantly slow global warming
and mitigate the worse effects of
climate change.

Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Addressing Climate Change
Climate
Disruption
Time
Capability
Mitigation
and
Resilience

Electricity
27%
Industry
31%
Agriculture
19%
Transportation
16%
Shelter
7%
Ligh
t
Dut
y
Vehi
cles
(Car
s,
Mot
orcy
cl…
Hea
vy
Dut
y
Truc
ks,
Plan
es
and
Ship
s
10-12%
Total
Emissions
Global Carbon Emissions

Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Laws of Zero Enable…
Gas Powered
Cars
Time
Zero Emission
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Or Better

ALL EV
(or better)
2050
Now
Mostly Gas
Given Laws of Zero, it
would be ridiculous
not to have

ALL EV
(or better)
2050
Now
EVs
ONLY
New
2035
Mostly Gas

Automotive Industry Disruption
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Gas Powered
Cars
Time
Zero Emission
Electric Vehicles
(EVs)
Or Better

0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
New Car Sales
Market Share Cross Over
EVs
(or Better)
Gas Powered
Cars
%

Advantage
Societal
Needs
55.2 56.7 70.4
224.3
406.6
934.6
0
600
1,200
($B)
Markets Value Forward Revenue
Source: Google Finance, 7/19/2023
Purpose

Mitigating Climate Change
Create Similar Opportunities in Every Industry
Electricity
27%
Industry
31%
Agriculture
19%
Transportation
16%
Shelter
7%

Similar Opportunities for Disruptions or
“Doing Well By Doing Good” Across Many Societal Needs
Competitive
Advantage
Org
Purpose
Societal
Needs
Future
Perfect

The Future History of Energy
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have clean
electricity available to everyone,
everywhere, in abundant and
affordable quantities.

The Future History of Health Care
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have terrific
health care available to everyone at
an affordable cost, providing longer,
more active lives.

The Future History of Transportation
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have
inexpensive, widely available
access to transportation.

The Future History of Infrastructure
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have robust
infrastructure that is resilient in the
face of man-made and natural
threats.

The Future History of Trust
2050
It’d be ridiculous if we couldn’t (mostly)
guarantee trust in our interactions with
each other, with government, with
organizations, and with devices in the
cloud.

Future Histories
• Ambitious yet attainable goal in a specific
timeframe
• Offers a narrative of success in the target future
timeframe
• Serves to organize and measure energies and
skills around waypoints connecting that future
back to today

How might the Laws of Zero transform your
purpose… and your career?
How might you help write the future history of
your industry?
What should be on your Third List?
3 Questions

Thank You!
chunka.mui@gmail.com
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