Commodity intelligence q3 2015
1 like413 views
The document discusses three major negatives impacting commodities: China, the economic cycle, and secular trends. It notes that China's growth policies have changed and environmental policies are now prioritized. The economic cycle is seeing low growth, low prices, and negative cash flows putting pressure on commodity producers. And powerful digital technologies and renewable energy are examples of secular trends disrupting commodity demand. The document questions whether further declines are ahead for oil production and prices given these challenges.
![So where is the fat lady?
It ain't over till (or until) the fat lady sings is a colloquialism. It means that one should
not presume to know the outcome of an event which is still in progress. More specifically,
the phrase is used when a situation is (or appears to be) nearing its conclusion. It
cautions against assuming that the current state of an event is irreversible and clearly
determines how or when the event will end. The phrase is most commonly used in
association with organized competitions, particularly sports.
The phrase is generally understood to be referencing the stereotypically overweight
sopranos of the opera. The imagery of Richard Wagner's opera cycle Der Ring des
Nibelungen and its last part,G旦tterd辰mmerung, is typically the one used in depictions
accompanying reference to the phrase. The "fat lady" is the valkyrie Br端nnhilde, who is
traditionally presented as a very buxom lady withhorned helmet, spear and round shield
(although Br端nnhilde in fact wears a winged helmet[citation needed]
). Her aria lasts almost
twenty minutes and leads directly to the end of the opera.[1]
As G旦tterd辰mmerung is
about the end of the world (or at least the world of the Norse gods), in a very significant
way "it is [all] over when the fat lady sings."](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/commodityintelligenceq3-150831113200-lva1-app6891/85/Commodity-intelligence-q3-2015-41-320.jpg)
Commodity intelligence q3 2015
- 1. Commodity Intelligence Ugly. What Next?
- 2. Three Big Negatives China, Cycle and Secular.
- 4. China Summary: ~Go go growth policy gone. ~Green policy in vogue and popular. ~Severe problems with implementation
- 5. Clean China Normally Beijings AQI is over 100. Beijing for over a year has been at war with smog, and finally were seeing results. The population loves it, and other cities are copying the program of clean up.
- 6. Rebar says it all.
- 8. Powerful digital secular. Printed book sales off 30% Sharing Mobilises dormant economic
- 10. Organic: A secular powerhouse?
- 11. Or does Biotech win the battle? US Rules OK. In Ags its Organic vs Biotech. Political, and perception.
- 12. Stuff intensity to GNP falling.
- 13. There is one big exception: Electric
- 14. Global Greening! Global warming is a huge policy error?
- 15. Renewables are a secular too. Japan: Solar boom Result: LNG Imports fall. Denial: EU Majors.
- 16. Texas: The Perfect test tube. Reverse auctions. Solar: 3.675c/kwh Wind: 2.4c/kwh
- 18. QE = Bank contraction, not activity.
- 19. Cycle Lows for Plat/Gold.
- 20. Credit Market turns the final screw.
- 21. Energy suffering credit withdrawal.
- 22. The Killing Zone. ~Low growth. ~Low prices. ~Negative cash flow on continuing capex commitments. The Final Act of the Downcycle.
- 23. The Other Side? What does it look like?
- 24. Towards a three stroke economy? Resource: (mined, grown, pumped) 3D Printer (makes stuff on demand) Consumer. (24/7 On demand economy) Resources do OK in this future model!
- 25. Oil #Consensus, finally, surrenders. #No real secular issues. #It is actually below fair value
- 26. Shale 2.0
- 27. US Oil production collapse..when?
- 28. The Generalists dream case.
- 29. Oil follows Gas.
- 30. Marcellus bigger than sum of top ten
- 31. EU Gas Prices. Marcellus Gas : ~Low US Gas price. ~LNG Export capacity ~First shipments Q4.
- 33. Occidental Petroleum: Not on radars
- 34. Oxy is coy on their Permian activity
- 35. Who is in pain?
- 36. Copper has a strong secular too.
- 37. Electricity equals Copper. Supply relatively fixed No big finds in 5 years plus.
- 38. The Large Copper Deposits
- 39. Finally: we have some surrender. ~All our negative stories are now front page. ~Very easy to find big yields in the sector. BUT: ~We are in the killing zone, and theres very real balance sheet risk.
- 40. The Big Boyz. AZS: Altman Z score, credit score. <2.7 is BAD.
- 41. So where is the fat lady? It ain't over till (or until) the fat lady sings is a colloquialism. It means that one should not presume to know the outcome of an event which is still in progress. More specifically, the phrase is used when a situation is (or appears to be) nearing its conclusion. It cautions against assuming that the current state of an event is irreversible and clearly determines how or when the event will end. The phrase is most commonly used in association with organized competitions, particularly sports. The phrase is generally understood to be referencing the stereotypically overweight sopranos of the opera. The imagery of Richard Wagner's opera cycle Der Ring des Nibelungen and its last part,G旦tterd辰mmerung, is typically the one used in depictions accompanying reference to the phrase. The "fat lady" is the valkyrie Br端nnhilde, who is traditionally presented as a very buxom lady withhorned helmet, spear and round shield (although Br端nnhilde in fact wears a winged helmet[citation needed] ). Her aria lasts almost twenty minutes and leads directly to the end of the opera.[1] As G旦tterd辰mmerung is about the end of the world (or at least the world of the Norse gods), in a very significant way "it is [all] over when the fat lady sings."