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Continuous
                           Experimentation
                           with Continuous
                             Deployment

                               Steve Mardenfeld
                                     Etsy


Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
Worlds Handmade Market




Monday, November 5, 2012
Continuous Deployment




Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
Metrics




Monday, November 5, 2012
Graph Factory




Monday, November 5, 2012
Oops




Monday, November 5, 2012
Oops




Monday, November 5, 2012
Good Enough?




Monday, November 5, 2012
What	
 油
                           is	
 油
                           Better?


Monday, November 5, 2012
Sometimes its Obvious




Monday, November 5, 2012
Most Times its Not




Monday, November 5, 2012
Most Times its Not


                                                 Cart Page
                                                 Restyled




Monday, November 5, 2012
Most Times its Not

     Etsy Mentioned
        on Oprah                                 Cart Page
                                                 Restyled




           Justin Beiber                        Internet Goes
              Sneezes                          Down in Brooklyn
                                New Cat Meme
Monday, November 5, 2012
A/B Testing?
Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
Test	
 油
                           Them	
 油
                           Both


Monday, November 5, 2012
Statistics?




Monday, November 5, 2012
First Pass



                           HADOOP




Monday, November 5, 2012
First Pass

                             CASCADING




Monday, November 5, 2012
First Pass



                                    R




Monday, November 5, 2012
First Pass

                                    CASCADING



                           HADOOP               R




Monday, November 5, 2012
Automate It


                             A/B Analyzer




Monday, November 5, 2012
A/B Analyzer


                       Framework for looking at experiments
                       Done for every experiment beforehand



Monday, November 5, 2012
A/B Analyzer




Monday, November 5, 2012
A/B Analyzer




Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
3 Types of Metrics

                       Co-occurence
                        visits that did X (searched)
                        average number of X (searches)
                       Funnels
                       Special Cases*

Monday, November 5, 2012
Co-Occurence

                       Co-occurence of all actions with the variant
                        i.e. - how many people saw this variant and
                             then purchased

                           i.e. - average number of purchases per variant


Monday, November 5, 2012
Funnels

                           Search     Listing   Buy
                                                  Buy




Monday, November 5, 2012
Funnels

                                  Search            Listing             Buy
                                                                          Buy




                           Home            Search             Listing           BuyBuy




Monday, November 5, 2012
Funnels

                                  Search            Listing             Buy
                                                                          Buy




                           Home            Search             Listing               Buy
                                                                                BuyBuy




Monday, November 5, 2012
Special Cases


                       Exiting pages
                       Bounce rate
                       Visit length


Monday, November 5, 2012
Pipeline
                            Logs                          A/B
           COLLECTION


                   Client   HDFS    Events      Visits    MySql


                                             PROCESSING

                             DB

Monday, November 5, 2012
Bucketing


                           Home       Search        Listing   Buy



                                  Search A/B Test




Monday, November 5, 2012
Bucketing


                           Home       Search        Listing   Buy



                                  Search A/B Test




Monday, November 5, 2012
Process

                       Idea
                       Hypothesis
                       Deploy
                       Wait
                       Analysis

Monday, November 5, 2012
Process

                       Idea
                       Hypothesis
                       Deploy
                       Wait
                       Analysis

Monday, November 5, 2012
Idea




Monday, November 5, 2012
Changing Search




Monday, November 5, 2012
Related Searches?




Monday, November 5, 2012
Process

                       Idea
                       Hypothesis
                       Deploy
                       Wait
                       Analysis

Monday, November 5, 2012
Be Specific

                       What does an improvement look like?
                        More clicks?
                        Less searches?
                        Shorter visits?
                        Longer visits?

Monday, November 5, 2012
Bet Driven Development




Monday, November 5, 2012
Is this even worth it?




Monday, November 5, 2012
Process

                       Idea
                       Hypothesis
                       Deploy
                       Wait
                       Analysis

Monday, November 5, 2012
Code	
 油It	
 油Up




Monday, November 5, 2012
Code




Monday, November 5, 2012
Turn it On




Monday, November 5, 2012
Process

                       Idea
                       Hypothesis
                       Deploy
                       Wait
                       Analysis

Monday, November 5, 2012
Realtime?




Monday, November 5, 2012
Wait




Monday, November 5, 2012
Process

                       Idea
                       Hypothesis
                       Code
                       Wait
                       Analysis

Monday, November 5, 2012
Making Sense of Results
Monday, November 5, 2012
Back To Related Searches




Monday, November 5, 2012
Back To Related Searches




Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
Final Thoughts

                       Bet driven development - be explicit about your
                           changes

                       Easy experimental setup and quick analysis
                           makes for more experiments

                       An experiment is successful if you learned
                           something, not if you launched



Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday, November 5, 2012
http://www.slideshare.net/powerlexis/retro-slides-from-ibm
Monday, November 5, 2012

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