On 8th October 2014, I spoke at Measure Fest in London on whether social data predicted the outcome of the Scottish independence vote.
My argument was that whilst the yes campaign made the most noise, the demographic and engagement data from Facebook and Twitter actually showed a much more balanced picture.
With the younger age groups over indexing in liking the better together campaign, and a clear gender inbalance in the yes campaign - it is clear when you look at a deeper level than just interactions that the yes campaign had some serious issues in terms of winning an outright majority.
I then discussed how you can use data in this way to create personas for your marketing campaigns and discussed how the campaigns were fairly static with their content and could have performed better by looking at data in this way.
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Did Social Data Predict The Outcome of the Scottish Independence Vote? Measure Fest October 2014
21. YES
30%
25%
20%
15%
NO
Age Group
10%
5%
0%
Better Together Yes Scotland All Scottish Facebook
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
% of users by age group
@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094
23. YES
NO
Education
22%
Better Together Yes Scotland
72%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094
6%
22%
72%
6%
0%
High School College Grad School
24. YES
28%
NO
Relationship Status
Better Together Yes Scotland
24%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094
7%
41%
32%
26%
8%
34%
0%
Single In Relationship Engaged Married