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Rainer Brendle
Rainer Brendle

1) A CPU core can cycle over 3 billion times per second, while light only travels 10cm during one CPU cycle. 2) Soon, servers will have 128 CPU cores with over 400 billion CPU cycles per second, but most of that power will be wasted waiting for data. 3) By 2022, there will be a 128x increase in transistors per chip, but disk storage cannot keep up with bandwidth demands and will only be used for archival purposes, with DRAM, flash, and phase change memory replacing it for active data.

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Did You Know?
Today, a CPU core can cycle three billion times in one second.
In about 1 second, light travels to the moon
but during one CPU cycle, light travels only 10cm.
Did You Know?
A motherboard with eight x 16 core CPUs will soon be available
That is 128x the computing power of a single CPU or over 400 billion CPU cycles per second on a single server blade or socket.
But
most of that computing power will be wasted
waiting for data.
2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK ? Moores Law will continue for at least 10 Years ? Transistors per area will double ~ every 2 year ? 128 X increase in ~ 12 years ? 2022: 512Gbit / DRAM, 8 Tbit / Flash ? Frequency Gains are difficult ? Pollacks rule: Power scales quadratic with clock performance ? Parallelism with more cores is a must
2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK ? 2014: 64 cores, 2016: 128 cores, 2022: 1024 cores ? Memory/IO bandwidth need to grow with processing power ? Disks cannot follow!
2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK 2010 2022 CORES PER 10 1024 CHIP MEMORY Challenging! BANDWIDTH 40 Gb/s 2.5 Tb/s But needed to feed the cores ! IO 2 Gb/s 250 Gb/s BANDWIDTH ?No big change : Single Core Clock Rate (will stay < 5GHz ) ?But impressive overall computing power: ? 5000 ( core * GHz )
Disks are Tape DISK Spinning Rust ? Forget Hard Disks ! ? Disks cannot go faster ? Disks cannot follow bandwidth requirements ? Random-read scanning of a 1TB disk space today : takes 15 C 150 days (!) ? To reach 1TB/s you would need 10.000 disks in parallel ? Disks can only be archives any more (sequential access) ? DRAM, Flash and PCM will be replacement
2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK 2010 2022 CORES PER 16 1024 CHIP MEMORY BANDWIDTH 40 GB/s 2.5 TB/s IO 2 GB/s 250 GB/s BANDWIDTH No big change : Latency
Latency and Bandwidth 2 determining factors , which wont change : RAM C CPU latency : ~ 0.1 ?s NIC latency via LAN or WAN : 0.1 C 100 ms RAM CPU DISK NIC FLASH archive ? NICs move to PCI Express ? Throughput x 2 / year ? May move onto CPU chip ? Access time falls by 50% / year ?10 C 100 Gbit/s already today ? goes from SATA to PCI Express ?Latency in cluster ~1 ?s possible (Infiniband/opt. Ethern.) ? LAN/WAN latency 0.1 C 100 ms
Did You Know?
A CPU accesses Level 1 cache memory in 1 C 2 cycles.
A CPU accessesLevel 12 cache memoryC It accesses Level cache memory in 1 in 6 C cycles. 2 20 cycles.
It accesses Level 2 cache memory in 6 C 20 It accesses RAM in 100 C 400 cycles. cycles.
It accesses Flash memory in 5000 It accesses RAM in 100 C 400 cycles. cycles.
It accesses Flash memorystorage It accesses Disc in 5000 cycles. in 1, 000, 000 cycles.
translate cycles to miles and assume you were a CPU core .. then Level 1 cache would be in the building Level 2 cache would be at the edge of this city RAM would be in a different state Flash memory would be a different country ... and disc storage would be the planet Mars.
Software Implications Roundtrip latency 500 cycles RAM CPU DISK NIC FLASH 1000 C 500,000,000 5,000 1,000,000 archive cycles cycles cycles
Software Implications Latency and locality are the determining factors What could that mean? Roundtrip latency 500 cycles RAM CPU DISK NIC FLASH 1000 C archive 5,000 1,000,000 500,000,000 cycles cycles cycles
Why Bother ? Systems may just get smaller ! More users for transaction processing on a single machine - isnt that great? Already today most customers could run the ERP load of a company on a single blade Commodity hardware becomes sufficient for ERP No threat! ( or may be becoming a commodity is a threat?)
or ? .......
Think in opportunities .......

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Did you know

  • 2. Today, a CPU core can cycle three billion times in one second.
  • 3. In about 1 second, light travels to the moon
  • 4. but during one CPU cycle, light travels only 10cm.
  • 6. A motherboard with eight x 16 core CPUs will soon be available
  • 7. That is 128x the computing power of a single CPU or over 400 billion CPU cycles per second on a single server blade or socket.
  • 8. But
  • 9. most of that computing power will be wasted
  • 10. waiting for data.
  • 11. 2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK ? Moores Law will continue for at least 10 Years ? Transistors per area will double ~ every 2 year ? 128 X increase in ~ 12 years ? 2022: 512Gbit / DRAM, 8 Tbit / Flash ? Frequency Gains are difficult ? Pollacks rule: Power scales quadratic with clock performance ? Parallelism with more cores is a must
  • 12. 2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK ? 2014: 64 cores, 2016: 128 cores, 2022: 1024 cores ? Memory/IO bandwidth need to grow with processing power ? Disks cannot follow!
  • 13. 2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK 2010 2022 CORES PER 10 1024 CHIP MEMORY Challenging! BANDWIDTH 40 Gb/s 2.5 Tb/s But needed to feed the cores ! IO 2 Gb/s 250 Gb/s BANDWIDTH ?No big change : Single Core Clock Rate (will stay < 5GHz ) ?But impressive overall computing power: ? 5000 ( core * GHz )
  • 14. Disks are Tape DISK Spinning Rust ? Forget Hard Disks ! ? Disks cannot go faster ? Disks cannot follow bandwidth requirements ? Random-read scanning of a 1TB disk space today : takes 15 C 150 days (!) ? To reach 1TB/s you would need 10.000 disks in parallel ? Disks can only be archives any more (sequential access) ? DRAM, Flash and PCM will be replacement
  • 15. 2010 - 2022 128X increase in transistors per chip CPU NIC RAM FLASH DISK 2010 2022 CORES PER 16 1024 CHIP MEMORY BANDWIDTH 40 GB/s 2.5 TB/s IO 2 GB/s 250 GB/s BANDWIDTH No big change : Latency
  • 16. Latency and Bandwidth 2 determining factors , which wont change : RAM C CPU latency : ~ 0.1 ?s NIC latency via LAN or WAN : 0.1 C 100 ms RAM CPU DISK NIC FLASH archive ? NICs move to PCI Express ? Throughput x 2 / year ? May move onto CPU chip ? Access time falls by 50% / year ?10 C 100 Gbit/s already today ? goes from SATA to PCI Express ?Latency in cluster ~1 ?s possible (Infiniband/opt. Ethern.) ? LAN/WAN latency 0.1 C 100 ms
  • 18. A CPU accesses Level 1 cache memory in 1 C 2 cycles.
  • 19. A CPU accessesLevel 12 cache memoryC It accesses Level cache memory in 1 in 6 C cycles. 2 20 cycles.
  • 20. It accesses Level 2 cache memory in 6 C 20 It accesses RAM in 100 C 400 cycles. cycles.
  • 21. It accesses Flash memory in 5000 It accesses RAM in 100 C 400 cycles. cycles.
  • 22. It accesses Flash memorystorage It accesses Disc in 5000 cycles. in 1, 000, 000 cycles.
  • 23. translate cycles to miles and assume you were a CPU core .. then Level 1 cache would be in the building Level 2 cache would be at the edge of this city RAM would be in a different state Flash memory would be a different country ... and disc storage would be the planet Mars.
  • 24. Software Implications Roundtrip latency 500 cycles RAM CPU DISK NIC FLASH 1000 C 500,000,000 5,000 1,000,000 archive cycles cycles cycles
  • 25. Software Implications Latency and locality are the determining factors What could that mean? Roundtrip latency 500 cycles RAM CPU DISK NIC FLASH 1000 C archive 5,000 1,000,000 500,000,000 cycles cycles cycles
  • 26. Why Bother ? Systems may just get smaller ! More users for transaction processing on a single machine - isnt that great? Already today most customers could run the ERP load of a company on a single blade Commodity hardware becomes sufficient for ERP No threat! ( or may be becoming a commodity is a threat?)