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DMM by Shamsi

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Zia Shamsi
Zia Shamsi

This document presents a decision-making model (DMM) intended to assist those dealing with matters of national security. The DMM considers possibility, capability, preferability, and credibility when evaluating decisions. It notes that one should calculate the probability of possible events, develop capabilities to deny opponents' desires, weigh doability alongside one's own preferences, and have political will and alternative plans to give decisions credibility. The model is informed by quotes about the importance of considering war, politics, and negotiations when making impactful decisions.

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Decision-Making Model (DMM) By Zia Ul Haque Shamsi Decision-Making is both, the art and the science. Perhaps, this is something which every person needs to make every day on everything that he and she does. There are various models assisting Decision-making processes, particularly to the people dealing with matters related to national security of the State. This DMM is prepared while keeping in mind the following quotes: The art of the war is of vital importance to the state. It is matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected. (Sun Tzu) Politics is art of the possible. (Bismarck) War is too important to be left to the Generals. (Churchill) Ten years talk is better then one day of war. (Gromyko) Possibility Capability Preferability Credibility Probability  Desirability  Doability  Will  Notes: Calculate probability of a certain event happening, if the possibility exists. No matter how low the probability is, do develop the capability to deny desirability of the opponent. Give weightage to doability over own desirability and evaluate alongside preferability. Only a strong political will could give credibility to a decision, that too if a Plan ‘B’ is available and ‘Exit Strategy’ worked out at every stage. In my opinion, subject to guidance by experts, a conflict may look natural, but mostly these are choreographed.

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DMM by Shamsi

  • 1. Decision-Making Model (DMM) By Zia Ul Haque Shamsi Decision-Making is both, the art and the science. Perhaps, this is something which every person needs to make every day on everything that he and she does. There are various models assisting Decision-making processes, particularly to the people dealing with matters related to national security of the State. This DMM is prepared while keeping in mind the following quotes: The art of the war is of vital importance to the state. It is matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected. (Sun Tzu) Politics is art of the possible. (Bismarck) War is too important to be left to the Generals. (Churchill) Ten years talk is better then one day of war. (Gromyko) Possibility Capability Preferability Credibility Probability  Desirability  Doability  Will  Notes: Calculate probability of a certain event happening, if the possibility exists. No matter how low the probability is, do develop the capability to deny desirability of the opponent. Give weightage to doability over own desirability and evaluate alongside preferability. Only a strong political will could give credibility to a decision, that too if a Plan ‘B’ is available and ‘Exit Strategy’ worked out at every stage. In my opinion, subject to guidance by experts, a conflict may look natural, but mostly these are choreographed.