This document discusses lessons that can be learned from past influenza pandemics and applied to understanding the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines three possible scenarios for the future trajectory of COVID-19 based on patterns seen in influenza. Scenario 1 involves repetitive smaller waves over 1-2 years as immunity gradually increases. Scenario 2 consists of a large second peak in cases around 6 months after the first. Scenario 3 follows a seasonal pattern with peaks in winter. The pandemic may last 18-24 months until 60-70% of the population is immune through natural infection or vaccination.