This document discusses how Simulmedia is applying big data techniques to television advertising. It summarizes that Simulmedia has assembled a large set of television viewing data through partnerships. It uses this data and data science techniques to sell targeted television ads, gaining insights into audience fragmentation and how to better reach audiences. It also discusses some challenges in working with television data and lessons learned around quality control, the value of more data, and showing addressable TV ads can be effective.
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Early Lessons Learned in Applying Big Data To TV Advertising
1. Early Lessons Learned in Applying Big Data To TV AdvertisingARF September 12, 2011Jack Smith, Chief Product Officer, Simulmedia
2. About UsWho We AreWe are a New York based start-up. We are venture backed by Avalon Ventures, Union Square Ventures and Time-Warner.Where We Have BeenOur 35 person team has veterans of:What We BelieveTelevision is still the most powerful advertising medium in the world. While addressability will come, we¡¯re not waiting for it. We¡¯ve taken a few strategies we learned from the Internet and are applying it to linear TV advertising, today.Through partnerships with major data providers, we have assembled the world¡¯s largest set of actionable television data.How We Do ItHow We Make MoneyWe sell television advertising. With inventory in over 106 million US households, we can cost-effectively extend reach into high-value target audiences across virtually any advertiser category. We use big data and science to do this.
3. Why Did We Leave The Web?Television remains the dominant consumer medium(a) Nielsen US TV Viewing AudicenceTraditional Live-Only TV based on average monthly viewing during 1Q2011. Internet and Online Video based on average monthly consumption during July 2011. Video on Demand based on consumption during May 2011.
6. Campaign Reach Is DecliningImpossible for measurement and planning tools to keep pace Source: Simulmedia analysis of data from SQAD, Nielsen and TVB
8. Big Data Is Driving Growth¡°We are on the cusp of a tremendous wave of innovation, productivity and growth, as well as new modes of competition and value-capture ¨C all driven by Big Data.¡±- McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011¡°For CMOs,Big Data is a very big deal.¡±- Alfredo Gangotena, CMO, Mastercard, July 2011
10. Size Is RelativeTelegram = 100 bytesData???1997-2011, James?S.?Huggins http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm
11. Size Is RelativePage of an Encyclopedia = 100 kilobytesData???1997-2011, James?S.?Huggins http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm
12. Size Is RelativePickup truck bed full of paper = 1 gigabyte Data???1997-2011, James?S.?Huggins http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm
13. Size Is RelativeEntire print collection of the Library of Congress = 10 terabytesData???1997-2011, James?S.?Huggins http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm
14. Size Is RelativeAll hard drives produced in 1995 = 20 petabytes Data???1997-2011, James?S.?Huggins http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm
15. Size Is RelativeAll printed material = 200 petabytes Data???1997-2011, James?S.?Huggins http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm
16. But Big Data Is More Than SizeWhat happened?Why did it happen?BIG DATAWhat¡¯s going to happen next?Time:PastFutureFocus:ReportingPredictionSupports:Human decisionsMachine decisionsStructuredAggregatedUnstructuredUnaggregatedData:DashboardsExcelDiscoveryVisualizationStatistics & PhysicsHuman Skills:
17. Accelerating The Push To Big DataHadoop, cloud computing, Facebook, Yahoo, quants, Bittorrent, machine learning, Stanford, large hadron collider, Wal-Mart, text processing, Amazon S3 & EC2, open source intelligence, NoSQL, social media, Google, commodity hardware, Hive, fraud detection, trading desks, MapReduce, natural language processing
18. What Can It Mean For TV Advertising?Big data drove the rise of web & search advertisingAccumulation of high volume of direct measurement of media consumption
24. Media buyers and sellers rethinking their approach to audience packaging, campaign planning, technology, data assembly and peoplePost Modern ArchitectureHave we reached the limits of classic data storage architecture?Data WarehousesYahoo!: 700 tb1?
35. Double capacity every 6 months¡And we don¡¯t load every data point across all data sets, yet
36. Rethinking Media Data ArchitectureApplying big data to television required us to rethink what our technical architecture should beCommodity HardwareNo clouds allowed (ISO compliance)
42. ExperimentationSome Wrinkles In The MatrixNo standards for set top boxesChannel mappingTime synchronizationOn/off rules¡.Consult the sagesBuild the team
43. The People We NeededA different approach required different skill setsNew core skills for everyone in the company
59. None of this work would¡¯ve been possible without the help of our clients and partnersThis box will contain important information about the graphs on each page.Read me¡
61. Where The Other 40% AreNetworks with relatively fewer lighter viewer impressions Networks with relatively more lighter viewer impressions Vertical: Ratio of Heavy Viewers to light viewer impressions. Horizontal: Low rated to Highly rated networks Call outs: Ratio is the number of Heavier Viewer impressions you would deliver to reach a Lighter Viewer on a given networkHigher rated networksLowerrated networksSources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
62. Where The Other 40% AreTo capture light viewers, media planning and measurement tools must quickly apply new methods to emerging data sets
64. When Data Goes MissingAutomation of error checking/quality control is essentialReuse the data to solve other problemsOccasionally observe missing dataThree choices:Pick up the phone
66. Work around the missing dataTime series of SYFY network. 10645 observations from 2010.02.28 at 7:00pm Eastern to 2010.10.14 at 12:30pm EasternSource: Simulmedia¡¯s a7
69. The Revolution of Simple MethodsMore data beats better algorithms.The best performing algorithm underperforms the worst algorithm when given an order of magnitude more data. Simple algorithms at very large scale can help better predict audience movement.Peter Norvig | Internet Scale Data Analysis | June 21, 2010Original graph sourced from: Banko & Brill, 2001. Mitigating the paucity-of-data problem: exploring the effect of training corpus size on classifier performance for natural language processing
70. Packaging ReachVery large data sets better predict TV audience movementsPeter Norvig | Internet Scale Data Analysis | June 21, 2010
71. The Cost Of More DataMore data drives better results but there are costs
72. The Data Isn¡¯t Biased Just Because It Comes From A Set Top Box
73. Applying Simple Methods At ScaleHigh correlation of a7 measures and Nielsen estimates.Either bias is insignificant or Nielsen data and our data share the same bias.Multiple methods yield similar resultsRegression analysis of Nielsen Household Cume Rating against Simulmedia¡¯s a7 cume rating. 20 Primetime Network shows with HAWAII FIVE-0. Fall 2010.Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
74. And Then We Kept GoingWe measured program Tune-In, Spot Tune-In, Campaign Reach, Campaign Rating using multiple slices of our data set using two different sample sets and time framesTwo samplesSample 1: Fall 2010: 20 Primetime broadcast series launches + promosSample 2: Jan 2011: 15 Primetime cable series premieres + promos (Plus one multi-season/year primetime broadcast premiere + promos)Hand selected programs
80. Closing The Loop On Program PromotionSpring 2010 broadcast premiere promotion. Horizontal: Left to right moves back in time. 0 is the premiere time. Vertical: Conversion rate is measured in percent. Size of the bubble represents total conversions for a given spot.Sources: Simulmedia¡¯s a7
81. Closing The Loop On Program PromotionSpring 2010 broadcast premiere promotion. Horizontal: Left to right moves back in time. 0 is the premiere time. Vertical: Conversion rate is measured in percent. Size of the bubble represents total conversions for a given spot.Sources: Simulmedia¡¯s a7
82. Closing The LoopLong held beliefs and rules of thumb in planning may or may not be supported by dataTV marketers now have more options for show promotion
84. Time Series: Broadcast: CBSHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) 60 networks. High correlation between Nielsen large sample measurement and a7 measuresSources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
85. Time Series: Broadcast: FoxHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
86. Time Series: Broadcast: ABCHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
87. Time Series: Cable: Investigation DiscoveryHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
88. Time Series: Cable: GolfHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
89. Time Series: Cable: BravoHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
90. Time Series: Cable: ESPN2Hour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
91. Time Series: Cable: SpeedHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
93. When You Look CloserHour by hour time series Mar 20 to April 8, 2011. Z score plots with Nielsen estimates in red. Simulmedia measurements in blue. Where Nielsen provided no estimate, estimates were imputed using Multiple Imputation (Rubin (1987)) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
94. High Frequency Time Series: ABC FamilyVolatility in dayparts, low rated networks, demographics¡. Unrated networks ¡°don¡¯t exist.¡± Did NOT look at local.a7NielsenSample graph from High Frequency (Second and Minute level) Time Series Analysis of 45 networks on January 19th2011. Simulmedia a7Sample (Second by Second to Minute) Nielsen Sample (Minute by Minute) Sources: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
96. Gender Driven Geographic VariationViewing by zip code among women across markets is more varied than men in the same zip codesMen 18-54Women 18-54Fraction of view time for ages 18-54 as fraction of view time for all TV viewers. Week 2 vs. the same fraction for week 1 (last two weeks in January).?Three markets: Philadelphia (blue) Atlanta (red) and Chicago (green)?Each point represents a zip code in one of these markets.?Source: Simulmedia¡¯s a7
97. Gender Driven Geographic VariationPlanning tactics for female targeted campaigns should be different than male target campaignsPS¡Also a good case for geo based creative versioning
106. Fragmentation Effects On FrequencyEach segment was above 70% reach but the frequency distribution was nearly identicalPercent of audience reached for major animated motion picture campaign 2011. Two weeks prior to release. Each stacked bar is a different audience segment. Each color with the stacked bar represents the frequency of ad view for each segment. Source: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
107. Fragmentation Effects On FrequencyFragmentation is affecting all high reach campaigns.Percent of audience reached for insurance advertisers September to October 2010. Approximately 8000 ads. Each stacked bar is a different audience segment. Each color with the stacked bar represents the frequency of ad view for each segment. Source: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
109. 40% Of The Audience Is Getting 85% Of The Impressions
110. Fragmentation Rears It¡¯s Head Again Campaign impressions increasingly concentrated against heavy viewers.0.0% 0.0 Total US Television Audience1.4 3.6% 4.3 10.8% Percent of audience reached for a different major animated motion picture campaign 2011. Two weeks prior to release. The stacked bar represents quintiles. Blue labels are average frequency per respective quintile. Red labels are % of total campaign impressions by respective quintile.23.0% 9.1 62.6% 24.8 Average Frequency Per Quintile% of Total Impressions Per QuintileSource: Nielsen & Simulmedia¡¯s a7
Audience fragmentation is going from bad to worseThis fragmentation is wrecking effective campaign reach and creating a massive frequency imbalanceAudience re-aggregation will be key for brand advertisers to maintain scaleTV is not going to the web. The web is going to television.
Audience fragmentation is going from bad to worseThis fragmentation is wrecking effective campaign reach and creating a massive frequency imbalanceAudience re-aggregation will be key for brand advertisers to maintain scaleTV is not going to the web. The web is going to television.
The Huntington copy is one of eleven surviving copies printed on vellum, and one of three such copies in the United States. An additional thirty-six copies printed on paper also survive.
Our claim of the world's largest actionable set of TV viewing data at 75tb would be hard for anyone to challenge. The fact that we link schedule information, set-top box data and ratings data makes it even more difficult to challenge. ?The most interesting discovery was that we're 3x larger than Nielsen's biggest single instance transactional datastore. (Netezza has similar kinds of multiplying factors as our data storage scheme, Hadoop.)?The Numbers:Wal-Mart: 1 petabyte (800 million transactions/day across 7000 stores globally) (3) ?(This is probably in a combination of HP Neoview and Teradata.)Yahoo!: 700 terabytes (1) ?(Doesn't include their Hadoop cluster which is approx 15 petabytes.)Australian Bureau of Statistics: 250 terabytes (1)AT&T: 250 terabytes (1)AC Nielsen: Largest single instances: Netezza: 20 tera, Oracle: 10 tera (500 terabytes TOTAL in Netezza, 45 tera in Oracle) Most are distributed databases with client data. (1)(2)Adidas: 13 terabytesLargest Hadoop cluster (4):Facebook: 30 petabytes of storage---------------------------------------------The fine print----------NOTES:(1) From Oracle F1Q10 Earnings Call September 16, 2009 5:00 pm ET Transcript (Charles E. Phillips Jr.)Yahoo!: 700 terabytes?Australian Bureau of Statistics: 250 terabytesAT&T: 250 terabytesAC Nielsen: 45-terabyte data [mart], they called itAdidas: 13 terabytes2) DBMS2:September 29, 2009What Nielsen really uses in data warehousing DBMSIn its latest earnings call, Oracle made?a reference to The Nielsen Companythat was ¡ª to put it politely ¡ª rather confusing. I just plopped down in a chair next to Greg Goff, who evidently runs data warehousing at Nielsen, and had a quick chat. Here¡¯s the real story.The Nielsen Company has over half a petabyte of data on Netezza in the US. This installation is growing.The Nielsen Company indeed has 45 terabytes or whatever of data on Oracle in its European (Customer) Information Factory. This is not particularly growing. Nielsen¡¯s Oracle data warehouse has been built up over the past 9 years. It¡¯s not new. It¡¯s certainly not on Exadata, nor planned to move to Exadata.These are not single-instance databases. Nielsen¡¯s biggest single Netezza database is 20 terabytes or so of user data, and its biggest single Oracle database is 10 terabytes or so.Much (most?) of the rest of the installations are customer data marts and the like, based in each case on the ¡°big¡± central database. (That¡¯s actually a classic?data mart use case.) Greg said that Netezza¡¯s capabilities to spin out those databases seemed pretty good.That 10 terabyte Oracle data warehouse instance requires a lot of partitioning effort and so on in the usual way.Nielsen has no immediate plans to replace Oracle with Netezza.Nielsen actually has 800 terabytes or so of Netezza equipment. Some of that is kept more lightly loaded, for performance.(3) Stair, Principles of Information Systems, 2009, p 181.(4)?Dhruba Borthakur who is the Hadoop Engineer for Facebook.30petabytes in December 2010. ?This is really interesting.... ?http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=468211193919In May 2010The Datawarehouse Hadoop cluster at Facebook has become the largest known Hadoop storage cluster in the world. Here are some of the details about this single HDFS cluster:21 PB of storage in a single?HDFS?cluster2000 machines12 TB per machine (a few machines have 24 TB each)1200 machines with 8 cores each + 800 machines with 16 cores each32 GB of RAM per machine15 map-reduce tasks per machineThat's a total of more than 21 PB of configured storage capacity! This is larger than the previously known Yahoo!'s?cluster?of 14 PB. Here are the cluster statistics from the HDFS cluster at Facebook:
Two reasons for light viewing:Modality. People have busy lives.Fragmentation to lower measured networksThe heaviest viewers watch 3X the volume of television of the average viewer.The lightest viewers watch 5% the volume of television of the average viewer.60% of the television audience accounts for 90% of television viewing (and therefore ad impressions).? Call them the Heavier Viewers.The remaining 40% of the viewers account for only 10% of total attention to television.? These Lighter Viewers¡¯ attention to television generates less than 1/10 the volume of impressions that a Heavier Viewer does.Without careful planning based on the best possible data resource, every 12 impressions an advertiser buys will yield one unit of reach against the 40% of the audience that are Lighter Viewers.Ratio of Heavier Viewer viewing to Lighter Viewer viewing varies by network.? Networks with a relatively greater share of viewing attributable to heavier viewers will tend to accumulate audience more slowly that networks with lower share of viewing attributable to heavier viewers.? All else equal, impressions on networks with more heavier viewer viewing will create more frequency and less reach than networks with less heavier viewer viewing.
SYFY 2010.02.28 7:00:00PM to 2010.10.14 12:30PM10645 Observations for 514 stationsSometimes easy to spotFiles corruptedWhat about inconsistency in field level data?Possibly a logging problem at the STB level?Possibly an aggregation problem?
Learning the difference between ¡°bank¡± of a river vs ¡°bank¡± as a place where you put your money.In search we called this the ¡°Madonna problem¡± Madonna the religious icon vs Madonna pop culture icon
Learning the difference between ¡°bank¡± of a river vs ¡°bank¡± as a place where you put your money.In search we called this the ¡°Madonna problem¡± Madonna the religious icon vs Madonna pop culture icon
Learning the difference between ¡°bank¡± of a river vs ¡°bank¡± as a place where you put your money.In search we called this the ¡°Madonna problem¡± Madonna the religious icon vs Madonna pop culture icon
Nielsen has Over The Air, Analog, Digital
Nielsen has Over The Air, Analog, Digital
Nielsen has Over The Air, Analog, Digital
Nielsen has Over The Air, Analog, Digital
Nielsen has Over The Air, Analog, DigitalImputed Nielsen¡¯s numbers
The first chart shows the Fraction of view time for women of ages 18-54 (F18-54) as fraction of view time for all tv viewers for week 2 vs the same fraction for week 1 (two weeks in January).?The data is for three markets Philadelphia in blue, Atlanta in red and Chicago in green.?Each point represents a zip code in one of these markets.?The second chart is similar but for men 18-54 (M18-54).The distance of a point away from the diagonal line represents the variation from one week to the next for that zip code.?The separation along the diagonal line represents the varying fraction of adult women between the zip codes.?As an example, if there had been no change from the first week to the second, all points would have been along the diagonal.We see strong overlap of all three markets and they can't be separated in these views.?However, we see significant spread of the fraction of the F18-54 group and M-18-54 group between the zip codes that compose these markets. ?Women appear to show more geographically variation in their viewing habits
Audience fragmentation is going from bad to worseThis fragmentation is wrecking effective campaign reach and creating a massive frequency imbalanceAudience re-aggregation will be key for brand advertisers to maintain scaleTV is not going to the web. The web is going to television.
Audience fragmentation is going from bad to worseThis fragmentation is wrecking effective campaign reach and creating a massive frequency imbalanceAudience re-aggregation will be key for brand advertisers to maintain scaleTV is not going to the web. The web is going to television.