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Early Warning Systems (EWS)

Global Landscapes Forum (GLF)
Global Landscapes Forum (GLF)

This document discusses data-driven early warning and action systems (EWS) and provides examples of their use and innovation. It notes that EWS have been shown to provide over a tenfold return on investment. Modern EWS use artificial intelligence like machine learning to predict multiple hazards objectively. Recent examples are described, including detecting desert locust breeding grounds through satellite data and drones to reduce pesticide use. EWS also use weather intelligence from satellites to predict extreme climate events like droughts months in advance. The document stresses that EWS require effective governance and cooperation between countries to enable early action in response to warnings.

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Data-driven Early Warning and Action Systems (EWS) GLF 2022
EWS motivation and innovation GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE EWS are urgently needed owing to interconnected and cascading crises the 4 Cs Climate change, Conflict, Covid-19 (Zoonoses) and Cost of living Recent evidence found that EWS provide more than a tenfold return on investment Predicting multiple hazards can be achieved through artificial intelligence (e.g., machine learning) characterised by a high level of digitalisation, which can bring about objectivity in decision-making TMG already in partnership with Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for EWS and Governance
GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE EWS example: DESERT LOCUST UPSURGE 2019-2022 notable disaster driven by climate change (UN University) The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was in positive phase, June-December in both 2018 and 2019 In October 2019, the dipole reached its most extreme positive level in 40 years Tropical cyclones caused heavy rainfall over the Empty Quarter in Saudi Arabia. Desert lakes were 鍖lled with vegetation perfect breeding ground.
EWS innovation example DESERT LOCUST GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Greater frequency and intensity of outbreaks under climate change (IPCC) New pests and new frontline countries Weather intelligence, edaphic and vegetation surveillance, (via satellites and ML processing of big data) to detect Desert Locust breeding conditions - Satellite -> Machine Learning for predict breeding grounds - Multipurpose (sensory) drones to verify - Robotics and other modern management tools to eradicate breeding grounds - Highly toxic pesticides made redundant Image recognition and object classification for other plant pests and pathogens
GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Droughts, storms and floods intensifying at current rate of warming of 1.2属C witnessing unprecedented weather events, what about 2属C? Weather intelligence and interfaces between the atmosphere, ocean circulation and land (via satellites and ML processing of big data) to detect: - Indian Ocean Dipole anomalies - La Ni単a - El Ni単o - Southwesterly monsoon (timing, distribution and intensity) - ML can generate robust predictions of drought from one to 12 months ahead EWS innovation example EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS
GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Programmed Preparedness for anticipatory and early action EWS from early warning to EARLY ACTION Preparedness needs to be tailored to (e.g., agriculture): Each transboundary threat and its predicted dimensions: intensity, longevity and the number at risk [BMZ - Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard (gafs.info)] Capacities inc. knowledge gaps of extensionists and ultimately farmers and pastoralists The agro-ecologies of where impacts could be greatest Emergency humanitarian relief in parallel with defining transformation pathways to instil greater resilience in Food Systems and Rural Livelihoods Much research is needed as well as dialogue with stakeholders for buying into Programmed Preparedness new TMG-IGAD workstream?
EWS finally, and most importantly GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Governance takeaway EWS is redundant if there is no early action. Action cannot take place without effective governance EWS for transboundary threats and crises require governance mechanisms Countries need to collaborate, coordinate and to act jointly and rapidly (e.g., Rapid Response Forum). Recent desert locust upsurge is a prime example TMG is exploring adaptive and responsive governance models with IGAD Intergovernmental set-up of IGAD and their Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) provides a solid foundation for the governance of EWS especially preparedness and action
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Early Warning Systems (EWS)

  • 1. Data-driven Early Warning and Action Systems (EWS) GLF 2022
  • 2. EWS motivation and innovation GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE EWS are urgently needed owing to interconnected and cascading crises the 4 Cs Climate change, Conflict, Covid-19 (Zoonoses) and Cost of living Recent evidence found that EWS provide more than a tenfold return on investment Predicting multiple hazards can be achieved through artificial intelligence (e.g., machine learning) characterised by a high level of digitalisation, which can bring about objectivity in decision-making TMG already in partnership with Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for EWS and Governance
  • 3. GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE EWS example: DESERT LOCUST UPSURGE 2019-2022 notable disaster driven by climate change (UN University) The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was in positive phase, June-December in both 2018 and 2019 In October 2019, the dipole reached its most extreme positive level in 40 years Tropical cyclones caused heavy rainfall over the Empty Quarter in Saudi Arabia. Desert lakes were 鍖lled with vegetation perfect breeding ground.
  • 4. EWS innovation example DESERT LOCUST GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Greater frequency and intensity of outbreaks under climate change (IPCC) New pests and new frontline countries Weather intelligence, edaphic and vegetation surveillance, (via satellites and ML processing of big data) to detect Desert Locust breeding conditions - Satellite -> Machine Learning for predict breeding grounds - Multipurpose (sensory) drones to verify - Robotics and other modern management tools to eradicate breeding grounds - Highly toxic pesticides made redundant Image recognition and object classification for other plant pests and pathogens
  • 5. GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Droughts, storms and floods intensifying at current rate of warming of 1.2属C witnessing unprecedented weather events, what about 2属C? Weather intelligence and interfaces between the atmosphere, ocean circulation and land (via satellites and ML processing of big data) to detect: - Indian Ocean Dipole anomalies - La Ni単a - El Ni単o - Southwesterly monsoon (timing, distribution and intensity) - ML can generate robust predictions of drought from one to 12 months ahead EWS innovation example EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS
  • 6. GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Programmed Preparedness for anticipatory and early action EWS from early warning to EARLY ACTION Preparedness needs to be tailored to (e.g., agriculture): Each transboundary threat and its predicted dimensions: intensity, longevity and the number at risk [BMZ - Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard (gafs.info)] Capacities inc. knowledge gaps of extensionists and ultimately farmers and pastoralists The agro-ecologies of where impacts could be greatest Emergency humanitarian relief in parallel with defining transformation pathways to instil greater resilience in Food Systems and Rural Livelihoods Much research is needed as well as dialogue with stakeholders for buying into Programmed Preparedness new TMG-IGAD workstream?
  • 7. EWS finally, and most importantly GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE Governance takeaway EWS is redundant if there is no early action. Action cannot take place without effective governance EWS for transboundary threats and crises require governance mechanisms Countries need to collaborate, coordinate and to act jointly and rapidly (e.g., Rapid Response Forum). Recent desert locust upsurge is a prime example TMG is exploring adaptive and responsive governance models with IGAD Intergovernmental set-up of IGAD and their Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) provides a solid foundation for the governance of EWS especially preparedness and action