Economic and Paper Market Trends
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The document analyzes economic trends affecting the paper market, highlighting significant changes in GDP, unemployment, and inflation as of Q2 2013. It reports a decline in U.S. recovered paper exports in 2012 and early 2013, with China being a key market despite fluctuations in import volumes. Overall, the outlook remains uncertain due to various factors, including domestic inventories, regulatory challenges, and global market conditions.
Economic and Paper Market Trends
- 1. Economic and Paper Market Trends Paper Division Executive Committee ISRI 2013 Fall Committee and Board Meetings San Francisco, CA October 22, 2013 www.ISRI.org
- 2. Macro Indicators:Gross Domestic Product Fastest Growing Sectors in Q2 2013: Gross Private Domestic Investment (+9.2%) Exports (+8%) Sharpest Contraction: Nondefense Government Spending (-3.1%)
- 5. Prices: Recovered Paper Index
- 6. Global RP Supply Steady through 2011 Source: Bureau of International Recycling
- 7. But US RP Export Sales Dip in 2012...
- 8. Jan-Jul 2013 Exports by Volume (short tons) Grade 2012 YTD 2013 YTD % CHG CORRUGATED 6,038,457 5,689,233 -6% 433,830 413,984 -5% PULP SUBSTITUTES 1,022,729 869,524 -15% NEWSPRINT 1,424,040 1,378,797 -3% MIXED PAPER 2,635,544 2,598,294 -1% OTHER 1,335,192 1,335,144 0% TOTAL 12,889,791 12,284,976 -5% HIGH GRADE DE-INKING Source: U.S. Census Bureau/U.S. International Trade Commission
- 9. China Remains the Key Overseas Market CHINESE RECOVERED PAPER IMPORTS (TONNES) OCC ONP Mixed paper Total RCP August 2013 1,434,606 600,479 392,110 2,495,592 July 2013 1,245,345 597,794 466,295 2,384,435 % change 15.2% 0.4% -15.9% 4.7% 1,564,052 526,988 482,389 2,645,702 -8.3% 13.9% -18.7% -5.7% Year-to-date 2013 11,034,133 4,542,888 3,609,667 19,803,822 Year-to-date 2012 11,348,482 4,592,875 3,526,295 20,018,876 -2.8% -1.1% 2.4% -1.1% August 2012 % change % change Source: RISI/China Customs.
- 10. Outlook Uncertainty remains the recurring theme with unsettled questions on: ? Domestic mill inventories ? U.S. Budget, debt ceiling, regulatory challenges ? Timing of Fed tapering and impact on Dollar ? Transportation and Energy Costs ? Last but not least, China imports