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Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation - MODSIM 2009

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DE Design and Environment

Presentation given at the MODSIM 2009 conference in June in Montreal. The focus was on environmental applications of modelling and simulation with a special emphasis on Governance and Business applications.

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DE Design and Environment Environmental Science Design Ecology Multimedia and Film Systems Analysis Expositions / Spatial Remote Sensing Systems and Processes www.design-environment.com Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation in Business and Government Decision Making Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Modelling, Simulation, and Environmental Policy and Governance Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Problem Economic and social pressures on natural resources globally Climate change is a growing concern politically Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to a changing climate are priority issues Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Why modelling and simulation? Uncertainty in environmental response to climate change and variability Variations in resource use - timber, water, hydroelectric power generation Global climate models for possible realities in the future Natural disasters and resource shortages Educated decisions in relation to natural resources and environmental processes Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Process-based GCMs (global climate / general circulation models) - Used for supporting international agreements - Kyoto Protocol - Equations resolved over a discrete framework (grid) from 1属 to 5属 Regional Climate Models - Focused on applications at the meso-scale and informing policies for regions (provincial, state, nation) - Focuses on understanding processes and events in regions (eg. Quebec ice storm) Ecological - Biogeochemical - Hydrological Models - Used for understanding environmental processes such as ecological function and impacts on society - Useful in applications such as agriculture and water quality Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Process-based (IPCC, 2009) Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Heuristic A conceptualization of how natural and social systems work C li m ate Chan g e Large - s c a le d i sturban c e Road Bu il d i ng (S l o w var i ab l e) Large - s c a le d i st u rbanc e (Fast v a r i ab le ) Ppt / ET A mazo n F orest Ecos y stems Large Sca le Pat t ern Large Sca le P r ocess S m a ll Sca le Pattern S m a ll Sca le Process (fra g m ente d fore s t) (f i re) Rio Madeiras 7:10 AM July 8, 2006 Deforestat io n Burn i ng to c le ar l and Rio Madeiras 1:00 PM July 8, 2006 (Fast v a r i ab le ) (Fast v a r i ab le ) Rio Madeiras 6:00 PM July 8, 2006 (Oswald, 2008) Systems Diagram - forces affecting Amazonian ecosystems, feedback mechanisms, and cross-scale connections Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Geospatial Raster and Vector based Geographic Information - Analyse land pattern - Estimate social and environmental processes that drive change Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission 1. Terra 2. Aqua Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Policy Application - Nicaragua Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation - CIFOR (2008) The Challenge: Climate change risk and mitigation - adaptation strategies need to be reported to UNFCCC Geospatial and process-based models used to assess these risks -geospatial calculation of land cover types -projections of climate impacts with GCMs and regional models Findings: -Reduced precipitation and possibility of ecosystem state shift in north east between 2050 and 2100 based on model output -Total fixed carbon of 72 469 Gg from forests and pasture restoration. Climate change and land cover change may impact this store -Risk to population of water and hydro-electric power scarcity due to climate change Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Development - Democratic Republic of Congo Biotechnology for Development in Africa - Carbon Strategy (2009) (http://www.bdafoundation.org/) The Challenge: - Create enterprises in DRC that capitalize on natural resources (medicinal plants and biomass) and enhance social and economic well- being of communities Relevance of simulation and modelling: (BDA Foundation, 2009) - Use geospatial, process, and heuristic models to determine the amount of carbon sequestered and harvested from forests - Forest carbon has a price, modelling helps to measure how much value exists in the forests (BDA Foundation, 2009) Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Modelling, Environment, and Business Decision Making Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Problem Energy industry is evolving rapidly in response to growing demands, technological innovation, and new regulations Regulatory frameworks and green government programs are evolving rapidly this year Energy companies need to examine different scenarios related to GHG emissions targets, compliance methods, and business goals Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Why modelling and simulation? Simulation can be one tool used to examine possible scenarios that a company can follow Modelling is one way of attaching metrics to abstract policy and regulatory rhetoric These scenarios can augment team-based decision making and business strategy formulation Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) The Challenge: - Find most suitable way of preparing for upcoming GHG regulations considering lack of clarity in regulations and evolving market conditions for various energy sources Relevance of simulation and modelling: - Use systems analysis with expert knowledge of carbon markets, regulatory processes and environmental technology - Simple models used to facilitate multi-stake holder decision making Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) Current Scenario: - 20% reduction in GHG intensity emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 - Compliance options: (1) buy domestic offset credits (2) buy international offset credits (10%) (3) invest in environmental technology fund (Start with 70% for compliance, reduce each year) (4) adapt and reduce emissions Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) Current Scenario: Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) Potential Scenario: - 20% (or greater) reduction in GHG emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 with a cap and trade system - Radically evolved renewable energy sector augmented by 1 billion dollar federal Clean Energy Fund - Changes in regulations and market situation create a dynamic new decision making context M + S Strategy: - Use dialogue as a key technique to determine what strategic priorities are and constraints to action. - From there, apply quantitative methods and tools as appropriate. Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Whats Next? Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Whats Next? Wide Open Field? Kind of .... but there are clear areas of focus: - better output from coupled process models - integration of remote sensing with process models - heuristic models that facilitate planning for sustainability in industry Modelling and Simulation activities and technology can support all of the above. Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE Design and Environment Thank-you Merci For more Information: davido@design-environment.com www.design-environment.com Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.

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Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation - MODSIM 2009

  • 1. DE Design and Environment Environmental Science Design Ecology Multimedia and Film Systems Analysis Expositions / Spatial Remote Sensing Systems and Processes www.design-environment.com Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 2. DE Design and Environment Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation in Business and Government Decision Making Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 3. DE Design and Environment Modelling, Simulation, and Environmental Policy and Governance Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 4. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Problem Economic and social pressures on natural resources globally Climate change is a growing concern politically Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to a changing climate are priority issues Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 5. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Why modelling and simulation? Uncertainty in environmental response to climate change and variability Variations in resource use - timber, water, hydroelectric power generation Global climate models for possible realities in the future Natural disasters and resource shortages Educated decisions in relation to natural resources and environmental processes Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 6. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Process-based GCMs (global climate / general circulation models) - Used for supporting international agreements - Kyoto Protocol - Equations resolved over a discrete framework (grid) from 1属 to 5属 Regional Climate Models - Focused on applications at the meso-scale and informing policies for regions (provincial, state, nation) - Focuses on understanding processes and events in regions (eg. Quebec ice storm) Ecological - Biogeochemical - Hydrological Models - Used for understanding environmental processes such as ecological function and impacts on society - Useful in applications such as agriculture and water quality Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 7. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Process-based (IPCC, 2009) Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 8. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Heuristic A conceptualization of how natural and social systems work C li m ate Chan g e Large - s c a le d i sturban c e Road Bu il d i ng (S l o w var i ab l e) Large - s c a le d i st u rbanc e (Fast v a r i ab le ) Ppt / ET A mazo n F orest Ecos y stems Large Sca le Pat t ern Large Sca le P r ocess S m a ll Sca le Pattern S m a ll Sca le Process (fra g m ente d fore s t) (f i re) Rio Madeiras 7:10 AM July 8, 2006 Deforestat io n Burn i ng to c le ar l and Rio Madeiras 1:00 PM July 8, 2006 (Fast v a r i ab le ) (Fast v a r i ab le ) Rio Madeiras 6:00 PM July 8, 2006 (Oswald, 2008) Systems Diagram - forces affecting Amazonian ecosystems, feedback mechanisms, and cross-scale connections Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 9. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance The models Geospatial Raster and Vector based Geographic Information - Analyse land pattern - Estimate social and environmental processes that drive change Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission 1. Terra 2. Aqua Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 10. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Policy Application - Nicaragua Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation - CIFOR (2008) The Challenge: Climate change risk and mitigation - adaptation strategies need to be reported to UNFCCC Geospatial and process-based models used to assess these risks -geospatial calculation of land cover types -projections of climate impacts with GCMs and regional models Findings: -Reduced precipitation and possibility of ecosystem state shift in north east between 2050 and 2100 based on model output -Total fixed carbon of 72 469 Gg from forests and pasture restoration. Climate change and land cover change may impact this store -Risk to population of water and hydro-electric power scarcity due to climate change Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 11. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance Development - Democratic Republic of Congo Biotechnology for Development in Africa - Carbon Strategy (2009) (http://www.bdafoundation.org/) The Challenge: - Create enterprises in DRC that capitalize on natural resources (medicinal plants and biomass) and enhance social and economic well- being of communities Relevance of simulation and modelling: (BDA Foundation, 2009) - Use geospatial, process, and heuristic models to determine the amount of carbon sequestered and harvested from forests - Forest carbon has a price, modelling helps to measure how much value exists in the forests (BDA Foundation, 2009) Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 12. DE Design and Environment Modelling, Environment, and Business Decision Making Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 13. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Problem Energy industry is evolving rapidly in response to growing demands, technological innovation, and new regulations Regulatory frameworks and green government programs are evolving rapidly this year Energy companies need to examine different scenarios related to GHG emissions targets, compliance methods, and business goals Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 14. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Why modelling and simulation? Simulation can be one tool used to examine possible scenarios that a company can follow Modelling is one way of attaching metrics to abstract policy and regulatory rhetoric These scenarios can augment team-based decision making and business strategy formulation Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 15. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) The Challenge: - Find most suitable way of preparing for upcoming GHG regulations considering lack of clarity in regulations and evolving market conditions for various energy sources Relevance of simulation and modelling: - Use systems analysis with expert knowledge of carbon markets, regulatory processes and environmental technology - Simple models used to facilitate multi-stake holder decision making Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 16. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) Current Scenario: - 20% reduction in GHG intensity emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 - Compliance options: (1) buy domestic offset credits (2) buy international offset credits (10%) (3) invest in environmental technology fund (Start with 70% for compliance, reduce each year) (4) adapt and reduce emissions Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 17. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) Current Scenario: Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 18. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Energy Sector - DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009) Potential Scenario: - 20% (or greater) reduction in GHG emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 with a cap and trade system - Radically evolved renewable energy sector augmented by 1 billion dollar federal Clean Energy Fund - Changes in regulations and market situation create a dynamic new decision making context M + S Strategy: - Use dialogue as a key technique to determine what strategic priorities are and constraints to action. - From there, apply quantitative methods and tools as appropriate. Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 19. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Whats Next? Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 20. DE Design and Environment Environmental Modelling in Business Whats Next? Wide Open Field? Kind of .... but there are clear areas of focus: - better output from coupled process models - integration of remote sensing with process models - heuristic models that facilitate planning for sustainability in industry Modelling and Simulation activities and technology can support all of the above. Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
  • 21. DE Design and Environment Thank-you Merci For more Information: davido@design-environment.com www.design-environment.com Presentation to MODSIM Conference. Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald 息 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.