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Es 08 pert case 1

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Tim Arroyo
Tim Arroyo

The student government is planning a concert featuring the rock band Bloodless Coup in 18 days. They make a list of all the tasks needed to prepare for the concert, including securing a venue, printing tickets, hiring staff, promotion, and more. Each task has a best, worst, and most likely number of days estimated for completion. Using PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) analysis, they will determine the probability all preparations can be finished on time.

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Case Problem 9.1 The Bloodless Coup Concert John Aaron had just called the meeting of the Programs and Arts Committee of the Student Government Association to order. Okay, okay, everybody, quiet down. I have an important announcement to make, he shouted above the noise. The room got quiet and John started again. Well, you guys, we can have the Coup. His audience looked puzzled and Randy Jones asked, What coup have we scored this time, John? The Coup, the Coup! You know, the rock group, the Bloodless Coup! Everyone in the room cheered and started talking excitedly. John stood up, waved his arms, and shouted, Hey, calm down, everybody, and listen up. The room quieted again and everyone focused on John. The good news is that they can come. He paused a moment. The bad news is that they will be here in 18 days. The students groaned and seemed to share Jim Hastings feelings, No way, man. It cant be done. Why cant we put it off for a couple of weeks? John answered, Theyre just starting their new tour and are looking for some warm-up concerts. They will be traveling near here for their first concert date in D.C. and saw they had a letter from us, so they said they could come now but thats it, now or never. He looked around the room at the solemn faces. Look you guys, we can handle this. Lets think of what we have to do. Come on, perk up. Lets make a list of everything we have to do to get ready and figure out how long it will take. So somebody tell me what we have to do first! Anna Mendoza shouted from the back of the room, We have to find a place; you know, get an auditorium somewhere. Ive done that before, and it should take anywhere from 2 days up to 7 days, most likely about 4 days. Okay, thats great. John said as he wrote down the activity secure auditorium on the blackboard with the times out to the side. Whats next? We need to print tickets and quick, Tracey Shea blurted. It could only take a day if the printer isnt busy, but it could take up to 4 days if it is. It should probably take about 2 days. But we cant print tickets until we know where the concert will be because of the security arrangement, Andy Taylor noted. Right, said John. Get the auditorium first then print the tickets. What else? We need to make hotel and transportation arrangements for the Coup and their entourage while they are here, Jim Hastings said. But we better not do that until we get the auditorium. If we cant find a place for the concert, everything falls through. How long do you think it will take to make the arrangements? John asked. Oh, between 3 and 10 days, probably about 5, most likely, Jim answered. We also have to negotiate with the local union for the concert employees, stagehands, and whomever else we need to hire, said Reggie Wilkes. That could take a day or up to 8 days, but 3 days would be my best guess. We should probably also hold off on talking to the union until we get the auditorium, John added. That will probably be a factor in the negotiations.
After we work things out with the union we can hire some stagehands, Reggie continued. That could take as few as 2 days but as long as 7. I imagine itll take about 4 days. We should also be able to get some student ushers at the same time once we get union approval. That could take only a day, but it has taken 5 days in the past; 3 days is probably the most likely. We need to arrange a press conference, said Art Cohen, learning against a wall. This is a heavy group, big-time. But doesnt a press conference usually take place at the hotel? John asked. Yeah, thats right, said Art. We cant make arrangements for the press conference until we work things out with the hotel. When we do that it should take about 3 days to set up a press conference, 2 days if were lucky and 4 at the most. The room got quiet as everyone thought. What else? John said. Hey, I know, said Annie Roark. Once we hire the stagehands they have to set up the stage. I think that could be done in a couple of days, but it could take up to 6 days, with 3 most likely. She paused for a moment before adding, And we can assign the ushers to their jobs once we hire them. That shouldnt take long, maybe only a day, 3 days worst. Probably 2 days would be a good time to put down. We also have to do some advertising and promotion if we want anyone to show for this thing, said Art nonchalantly. I guess we need to wait until we print the tickets first so well have something to sell. That depends on the media, the paper, and the radio stations. Ive worked with this before. It could get done really quick, like 2 days, if we can make the right contracts, but it could take a lot longer, like 12 days if we hit any snags. We probably ought to count on 6 days as our best estimate. Hey, if were going to promote this, shouldnt we also have a preliminary act, some other group? said Annie. Wow, I forgot all about that, said John. Hiring another act will take me between 4 and 8 days; I can probably do it in 5. I can start on that right away at the same time you guys are arranging for an auditorium. He thought for a moment. But we really cant begin to work on the promotion until I get the lead-in group. So whats left? Sell the tickets, shouted several people at once. Right, said John, we have to wait until they are printed; but I dont think we have to wait for the advertising and promotion to start do we? No, said Jim, but we should hire the preliminary act first so people will know what theyre buying a ticket for. Agreed, said John. The tickets could go quick; I suppose in the first day. Or, interrupted Mike Eggleston, it could take longer. I remember two years ago it took 12 days to sell out for the Cosmic Modern. Okay, so its between 1 and 12 days to sell the tickets, said John, but I think about 5 days is more likely. Everybody agree? The group nodded in unison and they all turned at once to the list of activities and times John had written on the blackboard. Use PERT analysis to determine the probability the concert preparations will be completed in time.

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Es 08 pert case 1

  • 1. Case Problem 9.1 The Bloodless Coup Concert John Aaron had just called the meeting of the Programs and Arts Committee of the Student Government Association to order. Okay, okay, everybody, quiet down. I have an important announcement to make, he shouted above the noise. The room got quiet and John started again. Well, you guys, we can have the Coup. His audience looked puzzled and Randy Jones asked, What coup have we scored this time, John? The Coup, the Coup! You know, the rock group, the Bloodless Coup! Everyone in the room cheered and started talking excitedly. John stood up, waved his arms, and shouted, Hey, calm down, everybody, and listen up. The room quieted again and everyone focused on John. The good news is that they can come. He paused a moment. The bad news is that they will be here in 18 days. The students groaned and seemed to share Jim Hastings feelings, No way, man. It cant be done. Why cant we put it off for a couple of weeks? John answered, Theyre just starting their new tour and are looking for some warm-up concerts. They will be traveling near here for their first concert date in D.C. and saw they had a letter from us, so they said they could come now but thats it, now or never. He looked around the room at the solemn faces. Look you guys, we can handle this. Lets think of what we have to do. Come on, perk up. Lets make a list of everything we have to do to get ready and figure out how long it will take. So somebody tell me what we have to do first! Anna Mendoza shouted from the back of the room, We have to find a place; you know, get an auditorium somewhere. Ive done that before, and it should take anywhere from 2 days up to 7 days, most likely about 4 days. Okay, thats great. John said as he wrote down the activity secure auditorium on the blackboard with the times out to the side. Whats next? We need to print tickets and quick, Tracey Shea blurted. It could only take a day if the printer isnt busy, but it could take up to 4 days if it is. It should probably take about 2 days. But we cant print tickets until we know where the concert will be because of the security arrangement, Andy Taylor noted. Right, said John. Get the auditorium first then print the tickets. What else? We need to make hotel and transportation arrangements for the Coup and their entourage while they are here, Jim Hastings said. But we better not do that until we get the auditorium. If we cant find a place for the concert, everything falls through. How long do you think it will take to make the arrangements? John asked. Oh, between 3 and 10 days, probably about 5, most likely, Jim answered. We also have to negotiate with the local union for the concert employees, stagehands, and whomever else we need to hire, said Reggie Wilkes. That could take a day or up to 8 days, but 3 days would be my best guess. We should probably also hold off on talking to the union until we get the auditorium, John added. That will probably be a factor in the negotiations.
  • 2. After we work things out with the union we can hire some stagehands, Reggie continued. That could take as few as 2 days but as long as 7. I imagine itll take about 4 days. We should also be able to get some student ushers at the same time once we get union approval. That could take only a day, but it has taken 5 days in the past; 3 days is probably the most likely. We need to arrange a press conference, said Art Cohen, learning against a wall. This is a heavy group, big-time. But doesnt a press conference usually take place at the hotel? John asked. Yeah, thats right, said Art. We cant make arrangements for the press conference until we work things out with the hotel. When we do that it should take about 3 days to set up a press conference, 2 days if were lucky and 4 at the most. The room got quiet as everyone thought. What else? John said. Hey, I know, said Annie Roark. Once we hire the stagehands they have to set up the stage. I think that could be done in a couple of days, but it could take up to 6 days, with 3 most likely. She paused for a moment before adding, And we can assign the ushers to their jobs once we hire them. That shouldnt take long, maybe only a day, 3 days worst. Probably 2 days would be a good time to put down. We also have to do some advertising and promotion if we want anyone to show for this thing, said Art nonchalantly. I guess we need to wait until we print the tickets first so well have something to sell. That depends on the media, the paper, and the radio stations. Ive worked with this before. It could get done really quick, like 2 days, if we can make the right contracts, but it could take a lot longer, like 12 days if we hit any snags. We probably ought to count on 6 days as our best estimate. Hey, if were going to promote this, shouldnt we also have a preliminary act, some other group? said Annie. Wow, I forgot all about that, said John. Hiring another act will take me between 4 and 8 days; I can probably do it in 5. I can start on that right away at the same time you guys are arranging for an auditorium. He thought for a moment. But we really cant begin to work on the promotion until I get the lead-in group. So whats left? Sell the tickets, shouted several people at once. Right, said John, we have to wait until they are printed; but I dont think we have to wait for the advertising and promotion to start do we? No, said Jim, but we should hire the preliminary act first so people will know what theyre buying a ticket for. Agreed, said John. The tickets could go quick; I suppose in the first day. Or, interrupted Mike Eggleston, it could take longer. I remember two years ago it took 12 days to sell out for the Cosmic Modern. Okay, so its between 1 and 12 days to sell the tickets, said John, but I think about 5 days is more likely. Everybody agree? The group nodded in unison and they all turned at once to the list of activities and times John had written on the blackboard. Use PERT analysis to determine the probability the concert preparations will be completed in time.