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Estimating Migration and
Quantifying Migrant Assimilation
Using Internet Advertising Data
Ingmar Weber
@ingmarweber
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Digital Humanities, Big Data, and the Law Symposium
Facebooks Audience Estimates
Validation Results for Qatar
Nationalities News & Embassies FB Users Aged 13+
India 650k (Dec 16) 520k
Nepal 350k (Jan 17) 410k
Qatar 313k (Jun 16) 280k
Bangladesh 280k (May 16) 330k
Philippines 260k (Jan 17) 340k
Jordan 40k (Dec 14) 25k
United Kingdom 25k (Apr 15) 13k
Germany 2,000 (Jan 17) 1,500
http://priyadsouza.com/population-of-qatar-by-nationality-in-2017/
Retrieved on Feb 18, 2018
Visualizing Geo-Demographic Distributions
http://fb-doha.qcri.org/
Joint work with M. Araujo, M. Aupetit and Y. Mejova
MIGRATION MONITORING
Emilio Zagheni, Ingmar Weber and Krishna Gummadi
Expats Across US States
2014
2017
Expats Across Countries
2015
2017
regression line
Age-Specific Selection Biases
Bias Reduction via Model-Fitting
Mean out-of-sample absolute percentage error 37%,
down from 56% without origin-age bias correction
Adjusted R^2 = .70
Does not use GDP, language, internet penetration, 
z = age-gender group
i = country of birth
j = US state of residence
QUANTIFYING MIGRANT
ASSIMILATION
Antoine Dubois, Emilio Zagheni, Kiran Garimella and Ingmar Weber
Do Refugees Share German Interests?
What interests to consider? Everybody likes Music and Technology.
How to interpret the score? High/low compared to European migrants?
Germans in DEU
FB Interests:
Football (90%)
Max Planck (70%)
Sauerkraut (40%)

Arabs in MENA
FB Interests:
Quran (80%)
Ibn Al-Haytham (60%)
Falafel (60%)

Arabs in DEU
FB Interests:
?
Obtaining an Assimilation Score
Migrant Group Assim. Score
Austrian migrants .900
Spanish migrants .864
French migrants .803
Turkish-speaking migrants .746
Arabic-speaking migrants .643
A: Women, non-uni, 45-64 .461
A: Men, uni, 18-24 .677
Thanks!
iweber@hbku.edu.qa

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Estimating Migration and Quantifying Migrant Assimilation Using Internet Advertising Data