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Evolutionary biology for mobile phone strategy

Alf Bae
Alf Bae

This document discusses mobile phone strategy from an evolutionary biology perspective. It analyzes Apple's initial iPhone launch as employing a risky but high-reward K-selection strategy. Android and iOS were then able to expand their ecosystems across the market rapidly using exponential growth models. Old strategies like Motorola, Samsung and Nokia's many product r-selection portfolios or Nokia's later K-selection smart devices failed to achieve dominance. The document advocates considering r-selection and K-selection strategies based on the current market situation to maximize the chances of a product or platform becoming the dominant species.

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Evolutionary Biology for Mobile phone strategy PRINCIPAL UX EXPERT ALF BAE
Summary Apple iPhone took a strategy of K-Selection at 2007. Risky but nothing too much to loose. Successfully invade and disturb the market quickly. iPhone shock in the eco system is too big to be dominated by iPhone alone. iOS and Android had expanded their eco system over the market at full potential growth rate. Old Motorola, Samsung and Nokias r-Selection strategy (many product as possible in portfolio) in feature phone was failed to dominant market any more. K-Selection strategy by Nokia smart device is also failed to dominate market from 2010-2013. WM6 &WM7 couldnt compete with Android nor iOS neither. From 2010, r-Selection strategy could be back for Android. Because Android platform is now dominated and stabilized. From 2010, Nokia choose a kind of K-Selection strategy but it was too expensive for Nokia. Too late. Risk of the strategy is realized.
Why Biology is Important for us? We may learn something from Biology. Especially, from evolutionary biology. Evolutionary biology And little bit of math!
Live long and prosper All creatures want to live long and be prosperous.
Ecologic world of mobile phone What happen in 2007? Awesome! 2007 June
Invasive species : European rabbit infestation in Australia Disrupt ecosystem Cause species loss Consume all resources Change landscape
Invasion by a new dominant species!
J curve Android and iOS make a J curve growth.
Exponential Growth Also known as a J-curve Growth is a fixed percentage of the whole (e.g., 10% per day or year) Population is growing at its full biotic potential
Logistic Growth Also known as S-curve Growth slows as the population approaches Carrying Capacity Populations stabilize at carrying capacity
Where was Nokia at 2012? volumes sold > operating profit> Nokia Nokia Apple Apple Apple Nokia
And in 2013
Company Confidential. 息 2010 Nokia. 13 Its all about Natural selection! Ecological selection(Fitness) & Sexual selection (Sexy)
Company Confidential. 息 2010 Nokia 14 So if you want to be selected by nature , need to choose
r-Selected Species r = Growth rate Reproduce young High reproductive rates Many small offspring Short-lived Found in unstable or unpredictable environments
Examples of r-Selected Species Weeds, bacteria, insects, algae, small mammals
K-Selected Species K = Carrying Capacity Reproduce later in life Low reproductive rates Fewer large offspring Long-lived Stable or predictable environments
Examples of K-Selected Species Elephants, great apes, whales, human
What Determines Population Size or Carrying Capacity? Environmental Resistance All the limiting factors that tend to reduce population growth rates Balance between biotic potential & environmental resistance determines growth rate
What are some Limiting Factors? Environmental resistance Carrying capacity Stabilized population size Limiting factors: Water Space Food Predators Disease
Dominant Species Who is the dominant species in earth? Human! Versatile surviving skill(language and culture) Reproduce later (over 30? Now) Low reproductive rate (almost 1.x) Long-lived ( over 60yrs) Stable of predictable environments (after world war II)
So What? What is carrying capacity of mobile phone business? What is best point between r-selection and K-selection continuum? How can we be a dominant species? Users Selection is Natures Selection
r and K strategies in mobile business
Company Confidential. 息 2010 Nokia 24 r-K continuum r-Selected K-Selected Many as possible The One Area Defense One by one Diversionary tactics Multiple choice but depends on current situation

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Evolutionary biology for mobile phone strategy

  • 2. Summary Apple iPhone took a strategy of K-Selection at 2007. Risky but nothing too much to loose. Successfully invade and disturb the market quickly. iPhone shock in the eco system is too big to be dominated by iPhone alone. iOS and Android had expanded their eco system over the market at full potential growth rate. Old Motorola, Samsung and Nokias r-Selection strategy (many product as possible in portfolio) in feature phone was failed to dominant market any more. K-Selection strategy by Nokia smart device is also failed to dominate market from 2010-2013. WM6 &WM7 couldnt compete with Android nor iOS neither. From 2010, r-Selection strategy could be back for Android. Because Android platform is now dominated and stabilized. From 2010, Nokia choose a kind of K-Selection strategy but it was too expensive for Nokia. Too late. Risk of the strategy is realized.
  • 3. Why Biology is Important for us? We may learn something from Biology. Especially, from evolutionary biology. Evolutionary biology And little bit of math!
  • 4. Live long and prosper All creatures want to live long and be prosperous.
  • 5. Ecologic world of mobile phone What happen in 2007? Awesome! 2007 June
  • 6. Invasive species : European rabbit infestation in Australia Disrupt ecosystem Cause species loss Consume all resources Change landscape
  • 7. Invasion by a new dominant species!
  • 8. J curve Android and iOS make a J curve growth.
  • 9. Exponential Growth Also known as a J-curve Growth is a fixed percentage of the whole (e.g., 10% per day or year) Population is growing at its full biotic potential
  • 10. Logistic Growth Also known as S-curve Growth slows as the population approaches Carrying Capacity Populations stabilize at carrying capacity
  • 11. Where was Nokia at 2012? volumes sold > operating profit> Nokia Nokia Apple Apple Apple Nokia
  • 13. Company Confidential. 息 2010 Nokia. 13 Its all about Natural selection! Ecological selection(Fitness) & Sexual selection (Sexy)
  • 14. Company Confidential. 息 2010 Nokia 14 So if you want to be selected by nature , need to choose
  • 15. r-Selected Species r = Growth rate Reproduce young High reproductive rates Many small offspring Short-lived Found in unstable or unpredictable environments
  • 16. Examples of r-Selected Species Weeds, bacteria, insects, algae, small mammals
  • 17. K-Selected Species K = Carrying Capacity Reproduce later in life Low reproductive rates Fewer large offspring Long-lived Stable or predictable environments
  • 18. Examples of K-Selected Species Elephants, great apes, whales, human
  • 19. What Determines Population Size or Carrying Capacity? Environmental Resistance All the limiting factors that tend to reduce population growth rates Balance between biotic potential & environmental resistance determines growth rate
  • 20. What are some Limiting Factors? Environmental resistance Carrying capacity Stabilized population size Limiting factors: Water Space Food Predators Disease
  • 21. Dominant Species Who is the dominant species in earth? Human! Versatile surviving skill(language and culture) Reproduce later (over 30? Now) Low reproductive rate (almost 1.x) Long-lived ( over 60yrs) Stable of predictable environments (after world war II)
  • 22. So What? What is carrying capacity of mobile phone business? What is best point between r-selection and K-selection continuum? How can we be a dominant species? Users Selection is Natures Selection
  • 23. r and K strategies in mobile business
  • 24. Company Confidential. 息 2010 Nokia 24 r-K continuum r-Selected K-Selected Many as possible The One Area Defense One by one Diversionary tactics Multiple choice but depends on current situation