Exploring human-Nature Futures
On 9 and 10 October, the 2023 Landscape Leadership Workshop was held in Nairobi, Kenya, to set the scene for the GLF Nairobi 2023 Hybrid Conference: A New Vision for Earth. Co-designed by the Global Landscapes Forum (GLF), the Youth in Landscapes Initiative (YIL), and the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN), the workshop brought together 45 brilliant young minds from Africa and around the world selected from over 700 applicants to drive impactful and transformative change. Together, we brainstormed out of the box to find landscape solutions to the climate crisis, biodiversity loss, social injustices and other major challenges. We held hands while sharing our feelings about the world. We harnessed the power of art to challenge dominant narratives. We will forever cherish the memories we made, and we will continue to nourish these new relationships with care.
Exploring human-Nature Futures
- 2. Cant know the future: Know the factors that shape the future Different from forecasting Begin understanding not just factors shape future, understand how change happens VUCA conditions Volatile: speed and turbulence of change Uncertainty: outcomes even from familiar actions = less predictable Complexity: vastness of interconnectedness and interdependencies in social-ecological systems Ambiguity: multitude of options, deeply held values and potential outcomes Foresight = capacity to anticipate and plan for possible futures Make better decisions in the present Why think about the future?
- 6. A reproduction of the early 20th century. Cote (1899) From 1899-1910 in Germany people were asked to visualise what the year 2000 would look like https://mymodernmet.com/germany-year-2000-future-predictions/
- 7. Future positive: something can be done Future negative: nothing can be done Cyclical futures: everyone has a turn and patience will get us on top Already given: the future is prophesied and laid out by higher beings Not given but created Inayatullah (2008) Different models of social change Which one resonates with you?
- 8. Futures thinking for collaborative governance Oteros-Rozas et al. (2015), Kok et al. (2007) Because futures thinking and foresight aims to influence actions and decision-making, it has become an increasingly participative process- anyone can become futures literate, and everyones worldviews are equally valid Participation can: surface diverse values empower stakeholders stimulate innovation stimulate social learning manage conflicts improving governance systems incorporating diverse knowledge types Futures thinking should not be used to colonise the future
- 9. 3 Horizons exercise Sharpe et al. 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5KfRQJqpPU
- 10. H1= business as usual- something not fit for the future and contains seeds of own demise
- 11. H3= future we want and the seeds are visible- want to amplify, water, nourish
- 12. 3 Horizons H2= disruptions and innovations- likely new ways of doing or being as different actors step up and innovate