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Features of the pre-election situation in Latvia

Roberts Z朝le
Roberts Z朝le

This document discusses features of the pre-election situation in Latvia. It provides data on public opinion polls regarding trust in political parties and institutions over time. It also examines attitudes toward Latvia's history as part of the USSR and criteria for electoral choice, such as prioritizing candidates or policies. Demographic data on ethnic groups is presented. Popularity of political parties is assessed according to ethnicity. The top issues of concern to voters are identified.

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Features of the pre-election situation in Latvia Ieva Strode Political and social project director SKDS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 05.96. 07.96. 09.96. SKDS 11.96. 01.97. 03.97. 05.97. 07.97. 09.97. (All respondents) 11.97. 7.Saeima Elections of 03.00. 05.00. 07.00. 09.00. 11.00. 01.01. 03.01. 05.01. 07.01. 09.01. 11.01. 01.02. 03.02. 8.Saeima 05.02. Elections of 07.02. 09.02. 11.02. 01.03. 03.03. 05.03. 07.03. 09.03. 11.03. Government 01.04. 03.04. 05.04. 07.04. 09.04. 11.04. 01.05. 03.05. 05.05. 07.05. 09.05. 11.05. 01.06. 03.06. 05.06. 07.06. 09.06. 11.06. 01.07. 9.Saeima 03.07. Elections of 05.07. 07.07. 09.07. 11.07. 01.08. Trust in Parliament and 03.08. 05.08. of Mr. Dombrov skis Gov ernment 03.2009 07.08. low est (since 1996.): (01.2009) Saeima: 4.5% (02.2009) MK: 7.3% 09.08. 11.08. 01.09. 03.09. 05.09. 07.09. Parliament 08.09. Government 11.09. 01.10. 03.10. 05.10. 07.10.
Ethnic composition of the Latvian society 100% 80% 8.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28 27.8 27.6 34 other Estonians 60% Germans Roma Jews Lithuanians Poles 40% Ukrainians 77.0 Byelarussians Russians 57.7 57.9 58.2 58.5 58.6 58.8 59.0 59.0 59.2 59.3 59.4 52.0 Latvians 20% Data: CSB 0% 1935 1989 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ethnic composition within constituencies (citizens of RL) 100% 15.8 14.2 90% 19.2 28.2 80% 39.9 49.6 70% Others 60% Latvians 50% 84.2 85.8 40% 80.8 71.8 30% 60.1 50.4 20% 10% 0% Total R朝ga Vidzeme Kurzeme Zemgale Latgale Data: OCMA
Attitude towards the past: USSR What is your evaluation of the fact, that Latvia became a part of the USSR? Is it ..very positive ..rather positive ..neutral ..rather negative ..very negative Hard to say/NA Total 10% 19% 25% 17% 22% 8% Latvian-speaking population 4% 11% 22% 23% 34% 6% Russian-speaking population 20% 31% 27% 9% 3% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Data: SKDS
Attitude towards lose of Independence Which of these statements, in your opinion, most precisely describes the way, how Latvia became a part of the USSR in 1940? It was... ...voluntary decision of Latvia to join with the USSR ..invasion of the USSR into Latvia Other Hard to say/NA Total 28% 48% 6% 18% Latvian-speaking population 11% 69% 5% 15% Russian-speaking population 55% 17% 8% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Data: SKDS
Criteria for electoral choice: People vs.Programms What seems to be more important to you when thinking about yur electoral choice in parliamental elections - persons (party leaders, nominees) or programs and statements regarding different issues? DK/NA; 13.9% To me more important thing are politicians of the party; 46.7% To me more important thing are programms and statements of the party; 39.4% Data: SKDS
Thinking about next parliamental elections which areas seems to be most important to you, to whom would you pay attention when reading programms, statements and pledges of political parties? Economy 55.8% Growth of standard of life 53.6% Unemployment 42.0% Health care policy 35.4% State finance, taxes 33.1% Education and science 31.5% Social policy (pensions, allowancies/benefits) 28.9% Combat of corruption 28.5% Agriculture 13.6% Foreign affairs 10.0% Public order and security (combating crime) 9.9% Regional development 9.8% National, ethnic problems 9.2% Issues of state governance 8.7% Issues of energetics 8.6% Culture 7.8% Issues of municipalities 6.1% Transport and communications 6.1% Protection of environment 5.3% Integration of society 3.7% Defence 2.7% Justice 1.2% Other 1.1% DK/NA 8.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Data: SKDS
Criteria for electoral choice: Old vs.New parties Considering your choice within parliamental elections, would you prefer political party, which has not been involved in government or political party with experience in the government? I'd prefer political party DK/NA; 25.2% with experience in governmental work; 33.1% 35.7% I'd prefer political party previously not involved inthe work of 25.8% government ; 41.7% Data: SKDS
Popularity of political parties (08.2010.) 25% Note: rating percentages refer to all those with a right to vote (not to those who had a specific choice at the time of the survey) 21.8% 20% 17.2% 16.7% 15.3% 15% 12.1% 10% 5% 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0% PCTVL VL TB/LNNK ZZS Vienot朝ba KDS Atbild朝ba Ra転ots Latvij PLL Daugava - Latvijai don't know Par Prezidentlu Tautas kontrole Pdj partija will not participate in Saskaas centrs republiku the elections Base: citizens of the Republic of Latvia, n=862 Data: SKDS
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 7.2% SC 40.6% 21.1% Vienot朝ba 2.6% 15.1% ZZS 4.8% 5.3% Base: citizens of the Republic of Latvia, n=862 PLL 2.4% 5.3% VL - TB/LNNK 0.4% 1.7% PCTVL 7.7% Par prezidentlu 1.0% republiku 1.2% 0.9% Atbild朝ba 1.3% 1.1% Tautas kontrole 0.4% 1.2% Ra転ots Latvij 0.0% population population 0.9% KDS 0.5% Latvian speaking Russian speaking 0.6% Pdj partija 0.0% 0.3% Daugava - Latvijai 0.0% Popularity of political parties Data: SKDS 22.6% don't know 19.5% within ethnic groups (08.2010.) will not participate in 15.6% the elections 18.7%
Political likes and dislikes 100% 2% 4% 7% 12% 12% 9% 15% won't vote for 90% 18% 23% 27% 36% 32% 80% 70% neutral 60% 50% among 0% sympathies 4% 40% 30% 2% 5% 2nd choice 5% 1% 20% 41% 8% 3% 5% 10% 21% 4% 7% 4% 3% 4% 6% 1% 15% 5% 2% 7% 3% 4% 2% 8% 1st choice 3% 5% 5% 2% 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% ZZS (RU) PCTVL (RU) Vienot朝ba (RU) VL - TB/LNNK (RU) ZZS (LV) Vienot朝ba (LV) SC (RU) PLL (RU) PCTVL (LV) VL - TB/LNNK (LV) SC (LV) PLL (LV) Data: SKDS
Representation of political 100% parties in Parliament 6 6 7 PCTVL 90% 16 5 SC 25 13 TSP 17 LSP 80% 16 6 "L暢DZTIES暢BA" SL-AT 70% 24 5 18 8 JL 26 12 TP 60% LSDSP 18 LKDS 14 DCP 50% 15 23 TKL 8 LVP 40% 20 17 6 DPS 8 LZS, LKDS un LDP 30% LZS 18 8 12 14 ZZS 20% LNNK/LZP 36 8 LNNK 7 10% 21 TB 17 10 10 TB/LNNK 0% LPP/LC LPP (JP) 9.Saeima 8.Saeima 7.Saeima 6.Saeima 5.Saeima LC Data: CEC
Thank you for attention! Ieva.Strode@skds.lv +37167312876, +37129783298 Bazn朝cas 32-2, R朝ga, LV-1010 Latvia

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Features of the pre-election situation in Latvia

  • 1. Features of the pre-election situation in Latvia Ieva Strode Political and social project director SKDS
  • 2. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 05.96. 07.96. 09.96. SKDS 11.96. 01.97. 03.97. 05.97. 07.97. 09.97. (All respondents) 11.97. 7.Saeima Elections of 03.00. 05.00. 07.00. 09.00. 11.00. 01.01. 03.01. 05.01. 07.01. 09.01. 11.01. 01.02. 03.02. 8.Saeima 05.02. Elections of 07.02. 09.02. 11.02. 01.03. 03.03. 05.03. 07.03. 09.03. 11.03. Government 01.04. 03.04. 05.04. 07.04. 09.04. 11.04. 01.05. 03.05. 05.05. 07.05. 09.05. 11.05. 01.06. 03.06. 05.06. 07.06. 09.06. 11.06. 01.07. 9.Saeima 03.07. Elections of 05.07. 07.07. 09.07. 11.07. 01.08. Trust in Parliament and 03.08. 05.08. of Mr. Dombrov skis Gov ernment 03.2009 07.08. low est (since 1996.): (01.2009) Saeima: 4.5% (02.2009) MK: 7.3% 09.08. 11.08. 01.09. 03.09. 05.09. 07.09. Parliament 08.09. Government 11.09. 01.10. 03.10. 05.10. 07.10.
  • 3. Ethnic composition of the Latvian society 100% 80% 8.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28 27.8 27.6 34 other Estonians 60% Germans Roma Jews Lithuanians Poles 40% Ukrainians 77.0 Byelarussians Russians 57.7 57.9 58.2 58.5 58.6 58.8 59.0 59.0 59.2 59.3 59.4 52.0 Latvians 20% Data: CSB 0% 1935 1989 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 4. Ethnic composition within constituencies (citizens of RL) 100% 15.8 14.2 90% 19.2 28.2 80% 39.9 49.6 70% Others 60% Latvians 50% 84.2 85.8 40% 80.8 71.8 30% 60.1 50.4 20% 10% 0% Total R朝ga Vidzeme Kurzeme Zemgale Latgale Data: OCMA
  • 5. Attitude towards the past: USSR What is your evaluation of the fact, that Latvia became a part of the USSR? Is it ..very positive ..rather positive ..neutral ..rather negative ..very negative Hard to say/NA Total 10% 19% 25% 17% 22% 8% Latvian-speaking population 4% 11% 22% 23% 34% 6% Russian-speaking population 20% 31% 27% 9% 3% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Data: SKDS
  • 6. Attitude towards lose of Independence Which of these statements, in your opinion, most precisely describes the way, how Latvia became a part of the USSR in 1940? It was... ...voluntary decision of Latvia to join with the USSR ..invasion of the USSR into Latvia Other Hard to say/NA Total 28% 48% 6% 18% Latvian-speaking population 11% 69% 5% 15% Russian-speaking population 55% 17% 8% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Data: SKDS
  • 7. Criteria for electoral choice: People vs.Programms What seems to be more important to you when thinking about yur electoral choice in parliamental elections - persons (party leaders, nominees) or programs and statements regarding different issues? DK/NA; 13.9% To me more important thing are politicians of the party; 46.7% To me more important thing are programms and statements of the party; 39.4% Data: SKDS
  • 8. Thinking about next parliamental elections which areas seems to be most important to you, to whom would you pay attention when reading programms, statements and pledges of political parties? Economy 55.8% Growth of standard of life 53.6% Unemployment 42.0% Health care policy 35.4% State finance, taxes 33.1% Education and science 31.5% Social policy (pensions, allowancies/benefits) 28.9% Combat of corruption 28.5% Agriculture 13.6% Foreign affairs 10.0% Public order and security (combating crime) 9.9% Regional development 9.8% National, ethnic problems 9.2% Issues of state governance 8.7% Issues of energetics 8.6% Culture 7.8% Issues of municipalities 6.1% Transport and communications 6.1% Protection of environment 5.3% Integration of society 3.7% Defence 2.7% Justice 1.2% Other 1.1% DK/NA 8.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Data: SKDS
  • 9. Criteria for electoral choice: Old vs.New parties Considering your choice within parliamental elections, would you prefer political party, which has not been involved in government or political party with experience in the government? I'd prefer political party DK/NA; 25.2% with experience in governmental work; 33.1% 35.7% I'd prefer political party previously not involved inthe work of 25.8% government ; 41.7% Data: SKDS
  • 10. Popularity of political parties (08.2010.) 25% Note: rating percentages refer to all those with a right to vote (not to those who had a specific choice at the time of the survey) 21.8% 20% 17.2% 16.7% 15.3% 15% 12.1% 10% 5% 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0% PCTVL VL TB/LNNK ZZS Vienot朝ba KDS Atbild朝ba Ra転ots Latvij PLL Daugava - Latvijai don't know Par Prezidentlu Tautas kontrole Pdj partija will not participate in Saskaas centrs republiku the elections Base: citizens of the Republic of Latvia, n=862 Data: SKDS
  • 11. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 7.2% SC 40.6% 21.1% Vienot朝ba 2.6% 15.1% ZZS 4.8% 5.3% Base: citizens of the Republic of Latvia, n=862 PLL 2.4% 5.3% VL - TB/LNNK 0.4% 1.7% PCTVL 7.7% Par prezidentlu 1.0% republiku 1.2% 0.9% Atbild朝ba 1.3% 1.1% Tautas kontrole 0.4% 1.2% Ra転ots Latvij 0.0% population population 0.9% KDS 0.5% Latvian speaking Russian speaking 0.6% Pdj partija 0.0% 0.3% Daugava - Latvijai 0.0% Popularity of political parties Data: SKDS 22.6% don't know 19.5% within ethnic groups (08.2010.) will not participate in 15.6% the elections 18.7%
  • 12. Political likes and dislikes 100% 2% 4% 7% 12% 12% 9% 15% won't vote for 90% 18% 23% 27% 36% 32% 80% 70% neutral 60% 50% among 0% sympathies 4% 40% 30% 2% 5% 2nd choice 5% 1% 20% 41% 8% 3% 5% 10% 21% 4% 7% 4% 3% 4% 6% 1% 15% 5% 2% 7% 3% 4% 2% 8% 1st choice 3% 5% 5% 2% 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% ZZS (RU) PCTVL (RU) Vienot朝ba (RU) VL - TB/LNNK (RU) ZZS (LV) Vienot朝ba (LV) SC (RU) PLL (RU) PCTVL (LV) VL - TB/LNNK (LV) SC (LV) PLL (LV) Data: SKDS
  • 13. Representation of political 100% parties in Parliament 6 6 7 PCTVL 90% 16 5 SC 25 13 TSP 17 LSP 80% 16 6 "L暢DZTIES暢BA" SL-AT 70% 24 5 18 8 JL 26 12 TP 60% LSDSP 18 LKDS 14 DCP 50% 15 23 TKL 8 LVP 40% 20 17 6 DPS 8 LZS, LKDS un LDP 30% LZS 18 8 12 14 ZZS 20% LNNK/LZP 36 8 LNNK 7 10% 21 TB 17 10 10 TB/LNNK 0% LPP/LC LPP (JP) 9.Saeima 8.Saeima 7.Saeima 6.Saeima 5.Saeima LC Data: CEC
  • 14. Thank you for attention! Ieva.Strode@skds.lv +37167312876, +37129783298 Bazn朝cas 32-2, R朝ga, LV-1010 Latvia