Finance prediction of future (m.w.kolisnyk)
2 likes3,017 views
The Kyiv School of Economics was founded by the European Energy Community and the Victor Pinchuk Foundation. The document discusses contemporary trends in quantitative and non-quantitative finance forecasting. It notes that traditional long-term planning methods may be limited by aspects of human brain function and our inability to predict rare events. Both traditional analytical approaches and alternative emotional approaches to forecasting and decision-making are examined, along with how fractal mathematics may help integrate the two in the future.
![A fractal is a mathematical set that has a fractal
dimension that usually exceeds its topological
dimension[1] and may fall between the integers.[2]
Fractals are typically self-similar patterns, where
self-similar means they are "the same from near as
from far
Wiki
It is expected, that
Fractal Mathematics, in the
nearest future helps us to join
Traditional and Alternative
Approaches](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/finance-predictionoffuturem-w-kolisnyk-130312170638-phpapp02/85/Finance-prediction-of-future-m-w-kolisnyk-14-320.jpg)
Finance prediction of future (m.w.kolisnyk)
- 1. Kyiv School of Economics founded by EERC and the Victor Pinchuk Foundation FINANCE: PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE Contemporary Quantitative and Non-quantitative Trends Mykhajlo Kolisnyk, Senior Fellow, Kyiv School of Economics Partner, Strategy Institute inspira $ 2013-03-06
- 2. 束Contemporary Economics looks like a chess game. You only can win if you are predicting more steps ahead than your competitor損 Unknown
- 3. Frontal Lobe area Bad News for responsible for long-run decisions, planning, reasoning Long-Run Planners and consequences analysis MRT Deep Limbic System area responsible for our dreams, illusions pleasure and operations planning part MRT http://biology.about.com/od/humananatomybiology/a/anatomybrain.htm
- 4. Frontal Lobe area Bad News for responsible for long-run decisions, planning, reasoning Long-Run Planners and consequences analysis MRT Deep Limbic System area responsible for our dreams, illusions pleasure and operations planning part MRT http://biology.about.com/od/humananatomybiology/a/anatomybrain.htm
- 5. Frontal Lobe area Bad News for responsible for long-run decisions, planning, reasoning Long-Run Planners and consequences analysis MRT Deep Limbic System area responsible for our dreams, illusions pleasure and operations planning part MRT In according to MRT investigation our Frontal Lobe take part in planning processes that not exceeds 1 month Taleb, Jacobs Deep Limbic System takes active part in decisions with consequences more long than 1 month period
- 6. Frontal Lobe area Bad News for responsible for long-run decisions, planning, reasoning Long-Run Planners and consequences analysis MRT Deep Limbic System area responsible for our dreams, illusions pleasure and operations planning part MRT In according to MRT investigation our Frontal Lobe take part in planning processes that not exceeds 1 month Taleb, Jacobs Deep Limbic System takes active part in decisions with consequences more long than 1 month period
- 7. Emotional (Alternative) Approach to Forecasting and Decision-making We have our world in our head only, perceptions of people mostly differ Our thinking are subjective Emotionally based decisions are better than calculated Feedback kills motivation http://www.digest.kyivstar.ua/books/736/ Charles S. Jacobs 束Management Rewired損 Past experience always constrained our further development We cannot predict black swans Do not use maps instead of real landscape http://www.digest.kyivstar.ua/books/32/review/ Nassim Nicholas Taleb Black Swan
- 8. It looks that traditional forecasting and analytical methods do not work at all? No, we still can use simplest forecasting and analytical tools to predict ordinary company activity We will not predict black swans, we still need to learn how to live with this fact but we can use a forecasts and badly need to use analytics in our management activity The researchers will improve a quality of models in order to fit contemporary needs
- 9. Quantitative (Traditional) Approach to Forecasting and Decision-making Sales Sales Growth Forecasting and Budgeting Sales Volume Probability Time Fact Forecast
- 10. Quantitative (Traditional) Approach to Forecasting and Decision-making Inventory Planning Classical EOQ Approach
- 11. Quantitative (Traditional) Approach to Forecasting and Decision-making Contribution Margin Analysis for Company SCUs CMR delta CMR Matrix Contribution Margin Rate Product Alfa Product CMR Beta Product Gamma Product Contribution Margin to Total Contribution Margin - delta CMR
- 12. Quantitative (Traditional) Approach to Forecasting and Decision- making Portfolio Analysis Markowitz Model 3D View 3 assets
- 13. Traditional Approach vs. Alternative Approach We need to have a wisdom to accept both
- 14. A fractal is a mathematical set that has a fractal dimension that usually exceeds its topological dimension[1] and may fall between the integers.[2] Fractals are typically self-similar patterns, where self-similar means they are "the same from near as from far Wiki It is expected, that Fractal Mathematics, in the nearest future helps us to join Traditional and Alternative Approaches
- 15. Good News for Long-Run Planners Even our intuition in the nearest future become a target of quantitative Right Part of modeling, probably, on the base of Human Brains Fractal Math area responsible for our intuition We are at the edge of MRT these changes ! http://biology.about.com/od/humananatomybiology/a/anatomybrain.htm
- 16. THANK YOU! (067) 230 01 05 kolisnyk@kse.org.ua kolisnyk@inspira.in.ua inspira.in.ua Copyright 息 2013 kolisnyk