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Forecasting your search results Estimating Traffic and Conversions By:  Graeme Benstead-Hume
Why estimate keyword traffic
Write content which will be read
Make sure you are optimising  for keywords that people  are searching for
Identify new business opportunities
Forecasting check list
How many people are searching for our target keyword?
EstimatingSearch Volume
Google Adwords Keyword Tool  Candy 11.1m Global Monthly Searches 673k Local Monthly Searches Low Competition
How does the season affect search volume?
Google  Insights
Other  uses  for Google Insights Add a seasonal touch to your keyword strategy Read long term trends to identify future  opportunities Justify recent changes in traffic volume
How manypeoplewill click on ourGoogle placing?
Click Through Rate Studies Based on our studies these figures are the most accurate CTR estimates produced so far.
Putting it all  together
6,600 Estimate Sweeties at first place in March March Weighting March Search Volume 歎 Total Avg. Search Volume CTR at position 1 Estimated monthly search volume 0.89 0.364 x x =2140
And conversions? 2140 Estimated monthly  traffic Average conversion rate 0.02 x =42!
And revenue? 42 Estimated monthly conversions Average Revenue / Conversion 贈50 x =贈2100
What else can I do with forecasting? Impress your friends and family with tales of the future! Choose which terms to focus budget on! Calculate ROI!
Actually how accurate is this? We also use real life data once we have it to add weights to search volume estimates. Based on our latest studies we are looking at around a 20% error margin.
What next? Talk to me Stay Tuned
Thank you!

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Forecasting Search Traffic

Editor's Notes

  1. First we need to know how many people are searching for our target search term. Some tools are more accurate than others.
  2. Some clever Math types took some leaked search data and estimated Click Through Rates for various positions on Google.