Forecasting, with Oranges
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The document discusses different methods for estimating the amount of juice that can be produced from a shipment of oranges, including traditional waterfall planning, planning poker, and averaging techniques. It mentions estimating the number of oranges that can be processed from each box and compares the estimates to actual production records from a juicing factory. The document considers factors like lead times, work-in-progress, and real-world constraints that affect the estimates.
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Forecasting, with Oranges
- 2. Who am I?
- 3. The Problems
- 4. I want to tell you a story…
- 5. I pop down the wholesaler
- 6. My analogy Vs the real world
- 7. How much juice do I have?
- 8. Method 1: Traditional Waterfall
- 10. Method 2: Planning Poker
- 11. Close the doors!
- 13. One box down…
- 14. Won’t somebody please think of the profits?
- 15. There MUST be a better way…
- 16. But how did that help me?
- 17. A little bit of knowledge about averages
- 18. Back to the boxes
- 19. Houston we have some oranges
- 20. Lets talk WW2 Tanks (really)
- 21. D-Day is coming Maths Intelligence June 1940 169 1000 June 1941 244 1550 August 1942 327 1550 Factory Records 122 271 342
- 23. 11 oranges already juiced
- 24. So how much Juice
- 25. Simple scenario
- 26. Real world
- 27. WIP-ing up
- 28. …but we just did all that lead time stuff…
- 29. So how long (to sing this song)…
- 30. Is that a good answer?