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foresight session TRANSLATOR 2030

Elena Konotopova
Elena Konotopova

The document summarizes a foresight session on the future of the translation profession held in Moscow in 2017. Participants included translators, translation companies, universities and software companies. Through group discussions, they identified key trends, technologies, formats and policies that could impact translation between 2017-2030. Major trends included technological development (e.g. growth of machine translation) and a decrease in demand for human translators. This could threaten translator incomes but also create new opportunities. The session helped create a "map of the future" for the translation industry.

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foresight session TRANSLATOR 2030
Foresight Session: TRANSLATOR 2030 In Moscow on May 16, 2017, School of Translation Didactics held for the first time 束Foresight Session: Translator 2030損. Participants: representatives of professional associations, unions of translators, translation groups, professional translators and freelance translators; representatives of universities, tertiary schools and colleges for translators; executives of translation agencies, companies employing translation services; representatives of translation software companies.
FORESIGHT Technology foresight the ability to see what will or might happen in the future is widely used to make long-term forecasts, and represents a way to create a consistent and reasonable vision of the future. FORESIGHT - 束the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits損 [B. Martin]. Result is 束a map of the future損.
Session subject: translation profession. Thematic focus: translation (literary and sectoral), interpreting (consecutive/simultaneous) and audiovisual translation. Time map involved 3 periods: short-term (2017 - 2020); medium-term (2020 - 2025); long-term (2025 - 2030 亞仂亟). Session object to use foresight technology to organize a discussion which allows putting on the time map the most adequate, important and interesting proposals on the fate of translators.
Key concepts of the foresight session 束Trends損 are processes which allow to improve and complement the content of the future translation profession. 束Technologies損 allow the specific trend to be implemented in the future. Inventions and technical innovations are considered as technologies. 束Format損 allows to present forms/formats of interaction. 束Opportunities and risks損 which may occur when implementing a specific trend. 束Statutory act損 allows to formalize results of the trend at official (legislative) level.
TREND threats opportunities statutory actsformats technologies
Principal trends Technological development Drop in translators income Staff capacity reduction short-term period
仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟 束TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT損 minitrends mainstreaming of translator robots and semi-machine translation systems constant refinement of automated translation algorithms Implementation and development of machine learning technology, launch of Big Data processing 束gamification損 of translation services a heavy increase in non-textual content to localize which translators should obtain new knowledge and skills
束TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT損 threats decrease in demand for human translation drop in income of classical translators translators unpreparedness for rapid software development machines start evaluating human translator skills, which leads to the risk of an inadequate assessment translators cant keep up with market demands for software use professional degradation: the more robots can do, the less human translators are capable of
creation of new secondary/interdisciplinary professions or additional skills for translators return of demand for creativity and cognitive skills demand for highly professional translators to train robots 束TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT損 opportunities
仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 minitrends-1 Translator transition to related industries Further inability of training system to keep up with market realities Professional degradation, decline in prestige and internal skills Blurring of professional boundaries Emergence of new specialities in translation profession Expansion of translation capabilities cultural mediation
仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 minitrends -2 Growing gap between elite translators and the rest Absence of certification for translators, which allows for dumping by less competent specialists Temporary deterioration of teaching staff skills, slow process of professional training of new teachers Search function replaces analysis function Dissolution of large educational institutions
束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 threats translation quality deterioration at times of avalanche like growth of localization content further inability of training system to keep up with market realities translation industry 束stratification損 and widening gap between elite translators and other representatives of the profession expert translators leaving the industry due to the drop in income
束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 opportunities - 1 growth of demand for highly-skilled professionals a chance to change specialties within boundaries of the profession improving the process of professional personnel selection flexibility and ability to adapt to market demands, and opportunity for professional self-fulfillment creation of a flexible system for further education and reorientation of translators throughout their professional lives
束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 opportunities - 2 need to preserve, process and use cumulative knowledge of translation studies in the profession of a translator will give rise to translator- researchers personality-centered education for future translators considering their skills and wishes achieving a greater role of research and scientific advances emergence of new educational institutions (smaller than classical universities) able to provide a large amount of knowledge in response to future translator demands synergistic dynamics in translator training process, emergence of many interdisciplinary translation specialties related to other areas
仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟束Steady decline in income損 minitrends A steady decline in freelance translator income due to the onset of translation companies A large number of ill-trained translators willing to work at low translation rates Growing dumping on the part of translators from neighboring countries Computer-based translation share growth Negative effect of CAT-tools on 束classical損 translation rates
SECONDARY TRENDS Decrease in textual content share (medium-term trend) Consumer mosaic thinking (short-term trend) Hybridization of communication formats and hybridization of translation activities as a result (medium-term trend) Return to analytical thinking (long-term trend)
FORMATS commercial translation 101 courses. state services portal for freelance translators. a portal to preserve and share translation research works. association of translation companies.
TECHNOLOGIES development of adaptive training courses. improving the means of communication with robots (voice input/output of data, a new level of software, etc.) development of criteria for expert evaluating of translator competence levels. expert systems to identify professional inclinations. creation of online learning platforms. development of new learning technologies: gamification, use of social media, etc. customized courses for professional advancement. building of networking cooperation to deter unscrupulous clients. a portal with a list of opportunities and possible ways to study various types of translation. project-based learning (PB-learning), Life Long Learning.
Statutory Acts a request to the Ministry of Labour to register professions of new translator qualifications. creation of a unified lobbying institution for language services industry. creation of accreditation centers for translators. creation of the occupational standard for translators, inclusion of translation profession in the unified register of professions. creation of educational standard for translators based on the occupational standard. creation of offices for expert evaluation of translations.
BLACK SWANS 束the black swan損 (Engl. TBS, The Black Swan) a term introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an American economist - a hard-to-predict and rare event which may have significant effects on the matter in hand.
束Black swans損 for translation industry 2017-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Return of the 束Iron Curtain損. Border closure Lifting of sanctions The loss of critical reading skills by younger generations Creation of a unified global translation market Sudden and erratic interference of state agencies in activities of the industry Internet censorship introduction Tightening of regulatory control of cash payments Internet shutdown Russias entry into the EU
Map of the future 束Translator 2030損
Website: www.gavrilenko-nn.ru E-mail: didactrad@gmail.com

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foresight session TRANSLATOR 2030

  • 2. Foresight Session: TRANSLATOR 2030 In Moscow on May 16, 2017, School of Translation Didactics held for the first time 束Foresight Session: Translator 2030損. Participants: representatives of professional associations, unions of translators, translation groups, professional translators and freelance translators; representatives of universities, tertiary schools and colleges for translators; executives of translation agencies, companies employing translation services; representatives of translation software companies.
  • 3. FORESIGHT Technology foresight the ability to see what will or might happen in the future is widely used to make long-term forecasts, and represents a way to create a consistent and reasonable vision of the future. FORESIGHT - 束the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits損 [B. Martin]. Result is 束a map of the future損.
  • 4. Session subject: translation profession. Thematic focus: translation (literary and sectoral), interpreting (consecutive/simultaneous) and audiovisual translation. Time map involved 3 periods: short-term (2017 - 2020); medium-term (2020 - 2025); long-term (2025 - 2030 亞仂亟). Session object to use foresight technology to organize a discussion which allows putting on the time map the most adequate, important and interesting proposals on the fate of translators.
  • 5. Key concepts of the foresight session 束Trends損 are processes which allow to improve and complement the content of the future translation profession. 束Technologies損 allow the specific trend to be implemented in the future. Inventions and technical innovations are considered as technologies. 束Format損 allows to present forms/formats of interaction. 束Opportunities and risks損 which may occur when implementing a specific trend. 束Statutory act損 allows to formalize results of the trend at official (legislative) level.
  • 8. 仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟 束TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT損 minitrends mainstreaming of translator robots and semi-machine translation systems constant refinement of automated translation algorithms Implementation and development of machine learning technology, launch of Big Data processing 束gamification損 of translation services a heavy increase in non-textual content to localize which translators should obtain new knowledge and skills
  • 9. 束TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT損 threats decrease in demand for human translation drop in income of classical translators translators unpreparedness for rapid software development machines start evaluating human translator skills, which leads to the risk of an inadequate assessment translators cant keep up with market demands for software use professional degradation: the more robots can do, the less human translators are capable of
  • 10. creation of new secondary/interdisciplinary professions or additional skills for translators return of demand for creativity and cognitive skills demand for highly professional translators to train robots 束TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT損 opportunities
  • 11. 仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 minitrends-1 Translator transition to related industries Further inability of training system to keep up with market realities Professional degradation, decline in prestige and internal skills Blurring of professional boundaries Emergence of new specialities in translation profession Expansion of translation capabilities cultural mediation
  • 12. 仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 minitrends -2 Growing gap between elite translators and the rest Absence of certification for translators, which allows for dumping by less competent specialists Temporary deterioration of teaching staff skills, slow process of professional training of new teachers Search function replaces analysis function Dissolution of large educational institutions
  • 13. 束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 threats translation quality deterioration at times of avalanche like growth of localization content further inability of training system to keep up with market realities translation industry 束stratification損 and widening gap between elite translators and other representatives of the profession expert translators leaving the industry due to the drop in income
  • 14. 束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 opportunities - 1 growth of demand for highly-skilled professionals a chance to change specialties within boundaries of the profession improving the process of professional personnel selection flexibility and ability to adapt to market demands, and opportunity for professional self-fulfillment creation of a flexible system for further education and reorientation of translators throughout their professional lives
  • 15. 束Decrease in demand for experts in translation industry損 opportunities - 2 need to preserve, process and use cumulative knowledge of translation studies in the profession of a translator will give rise to translator- researchers personality-centered education for future translators considering their skills and wishes achieving a greater role of research and scientific advances emergence of new educational institutions (smaller than classical universities) able to provide a large amount of knowledge in response to future translator demands synergistic dynamics in translator training process, emergence of many interdisciplinary translation specialties related to other areas
  • 16. 仆仂于仆亠 亠仆亟束Steady decline in income損 minitrends A steady decline in freelance translator income due to the onset of translation companies A large number of ill-trained translators willing to work at low translation rates Growing dumping on the part of translators from neighboring countries Computer-based translation share growth Negative effect of CAT-tools on 束classical損 translation rates
  • 17. SECONDARY TRENDS Decrease in textual content share (medium-term trend) Consumer mosaic thinking (short-term trend) Hybridization of communication formats and hybridization of translation activities as a result (medium-term trend) Return to analytical thinking (long-term trend)
  • 18. FORMATS commercial translation 101 courses. state services portal for freelance translators. a portal to preserve and share translation research works. association of translation companies.
  • 19. TECHNOLOGIES development of adaptive training courses. improving the means of communication with robots (voice input/output of data, a new level of software, etc.) development of criteria for expert evaluating of translator competence levels. expert systems to identify professional inclinations. creation of online learning platforms. development of new learning technologies: gamification, use of social media, etc. customized courses for professional advancement. building of networking cooperation to deter unscrupulous clients. a portal with a list of opportunities and possible ways to study various types of translation. project-based learning (PB-learning), Life Long Learning.
  • 20. Statutory Acts a request to the Ministry of Labour to register professions of new translator qualifications. creation of a unified lobbying institution for language services industry. creation of accreditation centers for translators. creation of the occupational standard for translators, inclusion of translation profession in the unified register of professions. creation of educational standard for translators based on the occupational standard. creation of offices for expert evaluation of translations.
  • 21. BLACK SWANS 束the black swan損 (Engl. TBS, The Black Swan) a term introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an American economist - a hard-to-predict and rare event which may have significant effects on the matter in hand.
  • 22. 束Black swans損 for translation industry 2017-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Return of the 束Iron Curtain損. Border closure Lifting of sanctions The loss of critical reading skills by younger generations Creation of a unified global translation market Sudden and erratic interference of state agencies in activities of the industry Internet censorship introduction Tightening of regulatory control of cash payments Internet shutdown Russias entry into the EU
  • 23. Map of the future 束Translator 2030損