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From Theory to Practice: Modeling Biomass Supply and Carbon Dioxide Removal for Climate Goals

IEA-ETSAP
IEA-ETSAP

From Theory to Practice: Modeling Biomass Supply and Carbon Dioxide Removal for Climate Goals Ms. Sophie CHLELA, Mines Paris-PSL, Centre for Applied Mathematics 24th-25th June 2024, etsap meeting, etsap summer workshop, semi-annual meeting, june 2024, Bonn, Germany, IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre, Thomas-Dehler-Haus, Willy-Brandt-Allee 20

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From Theory to Practice: Modeling Biomass Supply and Carbon Dioxide Removal for Climate Goals Sophie CHLELA PhD student Sandrine SELOSSE PhD, Research supervisor Summer 2024 Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting Online 24/06/2024
2 Net zero emissions pathways Synergies between energy and land Implementation of GLOBIOM results in TIAM-FR Scenarios Results Conclusion and future work OUTLINE
3 NET ZERO PATHWAYS What does it entail? Paris Agreement article 4.1. Strict carbon budget remaining. Incompressible emissions. Implementation of carbon dioxide removal Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Uses to first provide negative emissions. Riahi et al, 2021, Nature Climate Change
4 Main issues are desertification, land degradation and food security. Land-based mitigation for carbon sequestration and ecosystem restoration. Balancing how much NETs are used and which type. LANDS ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE Land as challenge and solution Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, IPCC.
5 Energy system EXPLORING SYNERGIES BETWEEN ENERGY AND LAND Key figures: AFOLU is a net source (+5.9賊4.1 GtCO2eq/yr between 2010 and 2019). Deforestation: 45% of total AFOLU emissions. Source: UNFCCC Energy system services Biomass 1 Biomass 2 Biomass 3 AFOLU GHG emissions Mitigation
6 TIMES INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL (TIAM-FR) The French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model representing the world energy model in 15 regions, with a time horizon until 2100. Reference Energy System (RES) of TIAM-FR model TIAM-FR regions
7 GLOBIOM-G4M GLOBIOM is a partial equilibrium land use model, which can assess competition for land- use between agriculture, bioenergy, and forestry. Main sectors are agriculture and forestry, production of crops and energy crops and are represented according to their profitability, and finally animal production. The model is solved recursively dynamic and can provide projections up to 2100. International trade. GLOBIOM G4M Cultivated area Land prices Forest biomass demand & prices Increments of biomass stocks Forest areas LAND USE Population
8 Biogenic nature of biomass and its value in decarbonization (ex Biomass supply curves with BIOx price method. Processing of the data for TIAM-FR: 1.Biomass as maximum potential. 2.GHG pricing based on Frank et al. 2021. 3. Carbon dioxide removal options. 4.CH4 and N2O mitigation. TIAM-FR X GLOBIOM: WHAT IS NEEDED? Biomass and GHG emissions MESSAGEix documentation, IIASA
9 COST CURVE FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF BIOMASS Energy crops in GLOBIOM: Second generation like short rotation tree plantations (SRP). Highest potential with increasing Biomass price.
10 BIOMASS REPRESENTATION IN TIAM-FR Crops are modelled on land-based approach. Allowed exploitable land based on GAEZ (FAO). No deforestation for the purpose of bioenergy. Land for feed and food is accounted. Energy crops quantities and costs are endogenously determined. Source: Kang, 2017 Agriculture & harvest residues (PJ) costs Potential Energy crops (kt) Forest biomass (PJ) Land occupation Residues costs < Forest biomass costs <= Energy crops costs Forest processing (PJ) 1st and 2nd generation (PJ)
11 BIOMASS MAPPING AND IDENTIFICATION Biomass supply curves from GLOBIOM used as limiting potential in TIAM-FR: 4 trajectories are chosen from GLOBIOM emulation. Biomass costs in TIAM-FR are covered by the BIO price trajectory i.e BIO13. Regional correspondence is feasible. Commodity correlation. Processing data to obtain the primary energy for the mapped BIOxx. Primary bioenergy is allocated for each BIOxx as a share of the highest.
12 SCENARIOS A successful scenario including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with net zero emissions around 2070. Similar scenario with GLOBIOM bioenergy potential. Scenarios Demand Drivers (GDP, growth of sectoral energy demand) Narrative Climate policy assumptions BIO-HIGH SSP2-1.9 Limitation on temperature to keep warming below 1.5属C. Overshoot is allowed. GHG/Carbon emissions constraints as declared in NDC registry. Global temperature increase by 2100 is limited to 1.5属C. BIO-GLOBIOM SSP2-1.9 Limitation on temperature to keep warming below 1.5属C. Overshoot is allowed. Same. New potential for bioenergy as per the integration of data from GLOBIOM.
13 RESULTS BIOENERGY CROPS A shift towards second generation crops. Biomass quantities are found through the disaggregation provided by TIAM-FR.
14 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK The enhancement in representing abatement technologies, including CDR, would provide a solution for decarbonizing the hard-to-abate sectors. Assumptions need to be aligned. The energy model provides the optimized use of bioenergy crops. Including the rest of the AFOLU sector in TIAM-FR. Other questions are related to the impact of some CDR solutions to adaptation to climate change i.e talking about co-benefits and SDGs.
Thank you for your attention! Sophie Chlela sophie.chlela@minesparis.psl.eu
16 ANNEX: BIOMASS ROLE AND THE RESOURCES IN EUROPE 1. Energy Security and Sustainable development 2. Bioenergy represents around 60% of the total renewable energy in the EU in 2019 3. Stabilization of carbon in the forests and soils Energy Crops Agriculture Forestry Waste Primary Dry and wet manure coming from cattle and that can be gasified Roundwood: Logging residues, pre- commercial thinnings Residues from landscape care management, roadside verges and abandoned lands Secondary Olive pits Covers woodchips and pellets, sawdust and black liquor Waste sector (solid/tertiary) The waste obtained from pruning of permanent crops (namely orchards, vineyards, olives, citrus, nuts) and the straw and stubbles residues. Biomass residues from different industries and municipal solid waste. Source: ENSPRESO - an open, EU-28 wide, transparent and coherent database of wind, solar and biomass energy potentials
17 Enhanced Weathering Direct Air Capture (DAC) (and storage, DACS) Ocean Alkalinity enhancement CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL APPROACHES Natural solutions Technologies Combined Afforestation/Reforestation [0.5-3.6 GtCO2/year] Biochar [0.52 GtCO2/year] Soil Carbon Sequestration (SCS) [up to 5GtCO2/year] Coastal blue carbon Enhanced Weathering [24 GtCO2 /year] Direct Air Capture (DAC) (and storage, DACS) [0.55 GtCO2/year] Ocean Alkalinity enhancement Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) [0.55GtCO2/year] 束 Anthropogenic activities removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products (IPCC, 2021) 1 & 3 use photosynthesis to capture CO2 2 uses a chemical reaction for carbon capture Potentials are in brackets for an assessment of sustainable global NET potential in 2050 by Sabine Fuss et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 063002
18 ENERGY-LAND: TIAM-FR X GLOBIOM Soft-Link with GLOBIOM emulation: Understand the Reference Land System Determine the input parameters for TIAM-FR GHG mitigation Prices of GHG (12 prices in USD/tCO2eq) Bioenergy prices : seven prices in USD/GJ SSP2 Regional linkages Constraints on land for forestry and agriculture Emissions and removals Land use evolution by type of cover with GHG00 and BIO13 (Base scenario)

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From Theory to Practice: Modeling Biomass Supply and Carbon Dioxide Removal for Climate Goals

  • 1. From Theory to Practice: Modeling Biomass Supply and Carbon Dioxide Removal for Climate Goals Sophie CHLELA PhD student Sandrine SELOSSE PhD, Research supervisor Summer 2024 Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting Online 24/06/2024
  • 2. 2 Net zero emissions pathways Synergies between energy and land Implementation of GLOBIOM results in TIAM-FR Scenarios Results Conclusion and future work OUTLINE
  • 3. 3 NET ZERO PATHWAYS What does it entail? Paris Agreement article 4.1. Strict carbon budget remaining. Incompressible emissions. Implementation of carbon dioxide removal Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Uses to first provide negative emissions. Riahi et al, 2021, Nature Climate Change
  • 4. 4 Main issues are desertification, land degradation and food security. Land-based mitigation for carbon sequestration and ecosystem restoration. Balancing how much NETs are used and which type. LANDS ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE Land as challenge and solution Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, IPCC.
  • 5. 5 Energy system EXPLORING SYNERGIES BETWEEN ENERGY AND LAND Key figures: AFOLU is a net source (+5.9賊4.1 GtCO2eq/yr between 2010 and 2019). Deforestation: 45% of total AFOLU emissions. Source: UNFCCC Energy system services Biomass 1 Biomass 2 Biomass 3 AFOLU GHG emissions Mitigation
  • 6. 6 TIMES INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL (TIAM-FR) The French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model representing the world energy model in 15 regions, with a time horizon until 2100. Reference Energy System (RES) of TIAM-FR model TIAM-FR regions
  • 7. 7 GLOBIOM-G4M GLOBIOM is a partial equilibrium land use model, which can assess competition for land- use between agriculture, bioenergy, and forestry. Main sectors are agriculture and forestry, production of crops and energy crops and are represented according to their profitability, and finally animal production. The model is solved recursively dynamic and can provide projections up to 2100. International trade. GLOBIOM G4M Cultivated area Land prices Forest biomass demand & prices Increments of biomass stocks Forest areas LAND USE Population
  • 8. 8 Biogenic nature of biomass and its value in decarbonization (ex Biomass supply curves with BIOx price method. Processing of the data for TIAM-FR: 1.Biomass as maximum potential. 2.GHG pricing based on Frank et al. 2021. 3. Carbon dioxide removal options. 4.CH4 and N2O mitigation. TIAM-FR X GLOBIOM: WHAT IS NEEDED? Biomass and GHG emissions MESSAGEix documentation, IIASA
  • 9. 9 COST CURVE FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF BIOMASS Energy crops in GLOBIOM: Second generation like short rotation tree plantations (SRP). Highest potential with increasing Biomass price.
  • 10. 10 BIOMASS REPRESENTATION IN TIAM-FR Crops are modelled on land-based approach. Allowed exploitable land based on GAEZ (FAO). No deforestation for the purpose of bioenergy. Land for feed and food is accounted. Energy crops quantities and costs are endogenously determined. Source: Kang, 2017 Agriculture & harvest residues (PJ) costs Potential Energy crops (kt) Forest biomass (PJ) Land occupation Residues costs < Forest biomass costs <= Energy crops costs Forest processing (PJ) 1st and 2nd generation (PJ)
  • 11. 11 BIOMASS MAPPING AND IDENTIFICATION Biomass supply curves from GLOBIOM used as limiting potential in TIAM-FR: 4 trajectories are chosen from GLOBIOM emulation. Biomass costs in TIAM-FR are covered by the BIO price trajectory i.e BIO13. Regional correspondence is feasible. Commodity correlation. Processing data to obtain the primary energy for the mapped BIOxx. Primary bioenergy is allocated for each BIOxx as a share of the highest.
  • 12. 12 SCENARIOS A successful scenario including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with net zero emissions around 2070. Similar scenario with GLOBIOM bioenergy potential. Scenarios Demand Drivers (GDP, growth of sectoral energy demand) Narrative Climate policy assumptions BIO-HIGH SSP2-1.9 Limitation on temperature to keep warming below 1.5属C. Overshoot is allowed. GHG/Carbon emissions constraints as declared in NDC registry. Global temperature increase by 2100 is limited to 1.5属C. BIO-GLOBIOM SSP2-1.9 Limitation on temperature to keep warming below 1.5属C. Overshoot is allowed. Same. New potential for bioenergy as per the integration of data from GLOBIOM.
  • 13. 13 RESULTS BIOENERGY CROPS A shift towards second generation crops. Biomass quantities are found through the disaggregation provided by TIAM-FR.
  • 14. 14 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK The enhancement in representing abatement technologies, including CDR, would provide a solution for decarbonizing the hard-to-abate sectors. Assumptions need to be aligned. The energy model provides the optimized use of bioenergy crops. Including the rest of the AFOLU sector in TIAM-FR. Other questions are related to the impact of some CDR solutions to adaptation to climate change i.e talking about co-benefits and SDGs.
  • 15. Thank you for your attention! Sophie Chlela sophie.chlela@minesparis.psl.eu
  • 16. 16 ANNEX: BIOMASS ROLE AND THE RESOURCES IN EUROPE 1. Energy Security and Sustainable development 2. Bioenergy represents around 60% of the total renewable energy in the EU in 2019 3. Stabilization of carbon in the forests and soils Energy Crops Agriculture Forestry Waste Primary Dry and wet manure coming from cattle and that can be gasified Roundwood: Logging residues, pre- commercial thinnings Residues from landscape care management, roadside verges and abandoned lands Secondary Olive pits Covers woodchips and pellets, sawdust and black liquor Waste sector (solid/tertiary) The waste obtained from pruning of permanent crops (namely orchards, vineyards, olives, citrus, nuts) and the straw and stubbles residues. Biomass residues from different industries and municipal solid waste. Source: ENSPRESO - an open, EU-28 wide, transparent and coherent database of wind, solar and biomass energy potentials
  • 17. 17 Enhanced Weathering Direct Air Capture (DAC) (and storage, DACS) Ocean Alkalinity enhancement CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL APPROACHES Natural solutions Technologies Combined Afforestation/Reforestation [0.5-3.6 GtCO2/year] Biochar [0.52 GtCO2/year] Soil Carbon Sequestration (SCS) [up to 5GtCO2/year] Coastal blue carbon Enhanced Weathering [24 GtCO2 /year] Direct Air Capture (DAC) (and storage, DACS) [0.55 GtCO2/year] Ocean Alkalinity enhancement Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) [0.55GtCO2/year] 束 Anthropogenic activities removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products (IPCC, 2021) 1 & 3 use photosynthesis to capture CO2 2 uses a chemical reaction for carbon capture Potentials are in brackets for an assessment of sustainable global NET potential in 2050 by Sabine Fuss et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 063002
  • 18. 18 ENERGY-LAND: TIAM-FR X GLOBIOM Soft-Link with GLOBIOM emulation: Understand the Reference Land System Determine the input parameters for TIAM-FR GHG mitigation Prices of GHG (12 prices in USD/tCO2eq) Bioenergy prices : seven prices in USD/GJ SSP2 Regional linkages Constraints on land for forestry and agriculture Emissions and removals Land use evolution by type of cover with GHG00 and BIO13 (Base scenario)