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GAME PLAN FOR 2017 GENERAL ELECTION MARCH-2015

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samuel mutemi
samuel mutemi

The document provides population and voter registration projections for several counties in Kenya between 2009 and 2017. It summarizes voter turnout data from 2013 and uses the figures to project numbers of eligible voters, registered voters, projected voter turnout, and total lost votes for each county in 2017. Counties included are Nairobi, Machakos, Kiambu, Mombasa, Kisumu, Bungoma and others. Assumptions are made about population growth rates, death rates, percentages of populations that will register to vote and turnout rates.

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GAME PLAN FOR 2017 GENERAL ELECTION MARCH-2015
OVERVIEW The population will have grown to 48,370,051 In the year 2017 from 38,610,097 in year 2009. The information is based on a growth rate of 2.9% and death rate estimated at 7/1000 people. The analysis focused on only ten counties namely; Nairobi, Machakos, Kiambu, Mombasa, Kisumu, Bungoma, Embu, Kakamega, Makueni and Kitui
Nairobi County Nairobi population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 3,249,300 in year 2017 from 3,138,369 in year 2009 The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 2,139,419. Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Nairobi Contd¡­. NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 1,728,801 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 82% VOTER TURN OUT 1,417,617 82% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 311,184 18% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 410,618 17% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 2,139,419 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 721,802 30%
Nairobi County 2013 voting trend REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 82% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 1,728,801 1,417,617 311,184 410,618 2,139,419 721,802
Projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 2,373,087 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 16,612 people will be dead by year 2017, based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Nairobi contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 2,356,475 Percentage ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 400,601 17% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 1,955,875 ASSUMING 82% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WIIL VOTE 1,603,817 82% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 352,057 18% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 752,658 32%
Nairobi 2017 projections. - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 82% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WIIL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 2,356,475 400,601 1,955,875 1,603,817 352,057 752,658
Machakos County Machakos population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,125,388 in year 2017 from 1,098,584 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 751,176. Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Machakos Contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 445,096 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84% VOTER TURN OUT 373,881 50% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 71,215 50% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 306,080 39% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 751,176 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 377,295 49%
Machakos County 2013 voting trend REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 445,096.00 373,881 71,215 196,194 641,290 267,409
Machakos Projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 763,514 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 13,599 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Machakos contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 763,514 ASSUMING 39% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 297,770 39% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 465,743 ASSUMING 84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 391,224 84% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 74,519 16% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 372,289 49%
Machakos projection 2017 ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 39% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 763,514 297,770 465,743 391,224 74,519 372,289
Kiambu County Kiambu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,680,660 in year 2017 from 1,623,282 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 1,034,036 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Kiambu contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 861,829 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 91% VOTER TURN OUT 784,264 76% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 77,565 24% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 172,207 17% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 1,034,036 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 249,772 24%
Kiambu County 2013 voting trend 861,829 784,264 77,565 172,207 1,034,036 249,772 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 91% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Kiambu Projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 1,174,808 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 20,925 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kiambu contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 1,174,808 ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 199,717 17% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 975,090 ASSUMING 91% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 887,332 91% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 87,758 9% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 287,475 24%
Kiambu Projection for 2017. ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 91% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 1,174,808 199,717 975,090 887,332 87,758 287,475
Mombasa County Mombasa population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be in year 2017 from 939,370 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 612,655 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Mombasa contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGE S REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 408,747 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 67% VOTER TURN OUT 273,860 45% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 134,887 55% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 203,908 29% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 612,655 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 338,795 49%
Mombasa voting trend 2013 408,747 273,860 134,887 203,908 612,655 338,795 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 67% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Mombasa projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 692,537 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 12,119 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Mombasa Contd¡­ 680,418 197,321 29% 483,096 323,675 67% 159,422 33% 356,743 52%TOTALVOTESLOST(BASEDONABOVEASSUMPTIONS) ELIGIBLEVOTERSIN2017 ASSUMING29%OFPOPULATIONWILLNOTREGISTER REGISTEREDVOTERS2017 ASSUMING67%(VOTERTURNOUTIN2013)WILLVOTE THEREFOREREGISTEREDVOTERSUNWILLINGTOVOTE
Mombasa Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 680,418 197,321 483,096 323,675 159,422 356,743
Kisumu County Kisumu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 968,909 in year 2017 from 939,370 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 612,655 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Kisumu contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 385,820 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 90.45% TURNOUT 348,974 67% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 36,846 33% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 137,689 21% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 523,509 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 174,535 27%
Kisumu voting trend 2013 385,820 348,974 36,846 137,689 523,509 174,535 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 90.45% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Kisumu projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 692,537 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 33,934 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kisumu Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 658,603 ASSUMING 21% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 138,307 21% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 520,296 ASSUMING 90.45% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 470,607 90% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 49,688 10% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 187,995 29%
Kisumu Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 21% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 90.45% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 658,603 138,307 520,296 470,607.84 49,688 187,995
Bungoma County Bungoma population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,700,486 in year 2017 from 1,630,934 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 801,630 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Bungoma contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 410,462 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT 350,986 44% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 59,476 56% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 391,168 38% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 801,630 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 450,644 44%
Bungoma voting trend 2013 410,462 350,986 59,476 391,168 801,630 450,644 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Bungoma projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 967,706 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 49,861 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Bungoma Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 967,706 ASSUMING 38% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 367,728 38% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 599,978 ASSUMING 85.51% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 513,041 86% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 86,937 14% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 454,665 47%
Bungoma Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 38% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 85.51% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 967,706 367,728 599,978 513,041 86,937 454,665
Kitui County Kitui population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,055,896 in year 2017 from 1,012,709 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 511,991 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Kitui contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 324,673 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT 276,134 54% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 48,539 46% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 187,318 29% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 511,991 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 235,857 36%
Kitui voting trend 2013 324,673 276,134 48,539 187,318 511,991 235,857 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
kitui projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 623,497 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 32,125 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kitui Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 623,497 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 180,814 29% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 442,683 ASSUMING 85.1% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 376,324 85% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 66,358 15% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 247,172 40%
Kitui Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 85.1% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 623,497 180,814 442,683 376,324 66,358 247,172
Makueni County Makueni population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 922,248 in year 2017 from 884,527 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 473,340 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Makueni contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 298,221 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84.6% TURNOUT 252,235 53% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 45,986 47% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 175,119 29% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 473,340 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 221,105 37%
Makueni voting trend 2013 298,221 252,235 45,986 175,119 473,340 221,105 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84.6% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Makueni projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 568,282 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 29,281 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Makueni Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 568,282 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 164,802 29% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 403,481 ASSUMING 84.6% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 341,345 85% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 62,136 15% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 226,938 40%
Makueni Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 84.6% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 568,282 164,802 403,481 341,345 62,136 226,938
Kakamega County Kakamega population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,731,470 in year 2017 from 1,660,651 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 844,752 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Kakamega contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 567,460 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 83.67% TURNOUT 474,794 56% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 92,666 44% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 277,292 26% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 844,752 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 369,958 35%
Kakamega voting trend 2013 567,460 474,794 92,666 277,292 844,752 369,958 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 83.67% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Kakamega projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 1,006,453 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 51,857 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Kakamega Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 1,006,453 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 261,678 26% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 744,775 ASSUMING 83.67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 623,153 84% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 121,622 16% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 383,300 38%
Kakamega Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 83.67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 1,006,453 261,678 744,775 623,153 121,622 383,300
Embu County Embu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 538,226 in year 2017 from 516,212 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 311,321 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
Embu contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 227,286 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 87.84% TURNOUT 199,648 64% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 27,638 36% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 84,035 23% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 311,321 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 111,673 30%
Embu voting trend 2013 227,286 199,648 27,638 84,035 311,321 111,673 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 87.84% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
Embu projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 352,552 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 18,165 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
Embu Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 352,552 ASSUMING 23% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 81,087 23% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 271,465 ASSUMING 87.84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 227,135 84% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 44,330 16% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 125,417 36%
Embu Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 23% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 87.84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 352,552 81,087 271,465 227,135 44,330 125,417
SCENARIOS ? Cord with only 8 counties amassing a 75% voter turn out they can accumulate a total of 5,146,839. ? If they can achieve a 90% voter registration in the 8 counties, total people eligible to vote in 2017 will be 6,862,452
CONCLUSION A better strategy has to be developed and the following will be areas of focus 1. Issuance of IDS to 18 years and above citizens 2. Ensure the party attains a National outlook in its top officials 3. Build Trust worth coalitions, partnerships and networks with other like minded political parties. E.g. the current coalition 4. Develop a deliberate strategy for 3M Kenyans living in the diaspora 5. Reduce the internal conflicts amongst current crop of elected leaders.

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GAME PLAN FOR 2017 GENERAL ELECTION MARCH-2015

  • 2. OVERVIEW The population will have grown to 48,370,051 In the year 2017 from 38,610,097 in year 2009. The information is based on a growth rate of 2.9% and death rate estimated at 7/1000 people. The analysis focused on only ten counties namely; Nairobi, Machakos, Kiambu, Mombasa, Kisumu, Bungoma, Embu, Kakamega, Makueni and Kitui
  • 3. Nairobi County Nairobi population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 3,249,300 in year 2017 from 3,138,369 in year 2009 The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 2,139,419. Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 4. Nairobi Contd¡­. NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 1,728,801 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 82% VOTER TURN OUT 1,417,617 82% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 311,184 18% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 410,618 17% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 2,139,419 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 721,802 30%
  • 5. Nairobi County 2013 voting trend REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 82% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 1,728,801 1,417,617 311,184 410,618 2,139,419 721,802
  • 6. Projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 2,373,087 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 16,612 people will be dead by year 2017, based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 7. Nairobi contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 2,356,475 Percentage ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 400,601 17% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 1,955,875 ASSUMING 82% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WIIL VOTE 1,603,817 82% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 352,057 18% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 752,658 32%
  • 8. Nairobi 2017 projections. - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 82% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WIIL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 2,356,475 400,601 1,955,875 1,603,817 352,057 752,658
  • 9. Machakos County Machakos population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,125,388 in year 2017 from 1,098,584 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 751,176. Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 10. Machakos Contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 445,096 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84% VOTER TURN OUT 373,881 50% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 71,215 50% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 306,080 39% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 751,176 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 377,295 49%
  • 11. Machakos County 2013 voting trend REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 445,096.00 373,881 71,215 196,194 641,290 267,409
  • 12. Machakos Projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 763,514 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 13,599 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 13. Machakos contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 763,514 ASSUMING 39% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 297,770 39% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 465,743 ASSUMING 84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 391,224 84% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 74,519 16% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 372,289 49%
  • 14. Machakos projection 2017 ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 39% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 763,514 297,770 465,743 391,224 74,519 372,289
  • 15. Kiambu County Kiambu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,680,660 in year 2017 from 1,623,282 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 1,034,036 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 16. Kiambu contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 861,829 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 91% VOTER TURN OUT 784,264 76% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 77,565 24% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 172,207 17% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 1,034,036 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 249,772 24%
  • 17. Kiambu County 2013 voting trend 861,829 784,264 77,565 172,207 1,034,036 249,772 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 91% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 18. Kiambu Projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 1,174,808 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 20,925 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 19. Kiambu contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 1,174,808 ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 199,717 17% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 975,090 ASSUMING 91% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 887,332 91% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 87,758 9% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 287,475 24%
  • 20. Kiambu Projection for 2017. ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 17% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 91% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 1,174,808 199,717 975,090 887,332 87,758 287,475
  • 21. Mombasa County Mombasa population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be in year 2017 from 939,370 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 612,655 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 22. Mombasa contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGE S REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 408,747 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 67% VOTER TURN OUT 273,860 45% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 134,887 55% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 203,908 29% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 612,655 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 338,795 49%
  • 23. Mombasa voting trend 2013 408,747 273,860 134,887 203,908 612,655 338,795 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 67% VOTER TURN OUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 24. Mombasa projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 692,537 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 12,119 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 25. Mombasa Contd¡­ 680,418 197,321 29% 483,096 323,675 67% 159,422 33% 356,743 52%TOTALVOTESLOST(BASEDONABOVEASSUMPTIONS) ELIGIBLEVOTERSIN2017 ASSUMING29%OFPOPULATIONWILLNOTREGISTER REGISTEREDVOTERS2017 ASSUMING67%(VOTERTURNOUTIN2013)WILLVOTE THEREFOREREGISTEREDVOTERSUNWILLINGTOVOTE
  • 26. Mombasa Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 680,418 197,321 483,096 323,675 159,422 356,743
  • 27. Kisumu County Kisumu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 968,909 in year 2017 from 939,370 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 612,655 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 28. Kisumu contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 385,820 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 90.45% TURNOUT 348,974 67% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 36,846 33% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 137,689 21% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 523,509 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 174,535 27%
  • 29. Kisumu voting trend 2013 385,820 348,974 36,846 137,689 523,509 174,535 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 90.45% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 30. Kisumu projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 692,537 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 33,934 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 31. Kisumu Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 658,603 ASSUMING 21% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 138,307 21% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 520,296 ASSUMING 90.45% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 470,607 90% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 49,688 10% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 187,995 29%
  • 32. Kisumu Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 21% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 90.45% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 658,603 138,307 520,296 470,607.84 49,688 187,995
  • 33. Bungoma County Bungoma population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,700,486 in year 2017 from 1,630,934 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 801,630 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 34. Bungoma contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 410,462 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT 350,986 44% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 59,476 56% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 391,168 38% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 801,630 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 450,644 44%
  • 35. Bungoma voting trend 2013 410,462 350,986 59,476 391,168 801,630 450,644 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 36. Bungoma projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 967,706 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 49,861 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 37. Bungoma Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 967,706 ASSUMING 38% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 367,728 38% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 599,978 ASSUMING 85.51% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 513,041 86% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 86,937 14% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 454,665 47%
  • 38. Bungoma Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 38% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 85.51% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 967,706 367,728 599,978 513,041 86,937 454,665
  • 39. Kitui County Kitui population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,055,896 in year 2017 from 1,012,709 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 511,991 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 40. Kitui contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 324,673 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT 276,134 54% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 48,539 46% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 187,318 29% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 511,991 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 235,857 36%
  • 41. Kitui voting trend 2013 324,673 276,134 48,539 187,318 511,991 235,857 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 85.51% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 42. kitui projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 623,497 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 32,125 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 43. Kitui Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 623,497 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 180,814 29% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 442,683 ASSUMING 85.1% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 376,324 85% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 66,358 15% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 247,172 40%
  • 44. Kitui Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 85.1% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 623,497 180,814 442,683 376,324 66,358 247,172
  • 45. Makueni County Makueni population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 922,248 in year 2017 from 884,527 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 473,340 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 46. Makueni contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 298,221 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84.6% TURNOUT 252,235 53% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 45,986 47% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 175,119 29% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 473,340 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 221,105 37%
  • 47. Makueni voting trend 2013 298,221 252,235 45,986 175,119 473,340 221,105 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 84.6% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 48. Makueni projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 568,282 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 29,281 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 49. Makueni Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 568,282 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 164,802 29% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 403,481 ASSUMING 84.6% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 341,345 85% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 62,136 15% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 226,938 40%
  • 50. Makueni Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 84.6% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 568,282 164,802 403,481 341,345 62,136 226,938
  • 51. Kakamega County Kakamega population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 1,731,470 in year 2017 from 1,660,651 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 844,752 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 52. Kakamega contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 567,460 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 83.67% TURNOUT 474,794 56% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 92,666 44% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 277,292 26% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 844,752 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 369,958 35%
  • 53. Kakamega voting trend 2013 567,460 474,794 92,666 277,292 844,752 369,958 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 83.67% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 54. Kakamega projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 1,006,453 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 51,857 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 55. Kakamega Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 1,006,453 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 261,678 26% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 744,775 ASSUMING 83.67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 623,153 84% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 121,622 16% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 383,300 38%
  • 56. Kakamega Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 29% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 83.67% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 1,006,453 261,678 744,775 623,153 121,622 383,300
  • 57. Embu County Embu population based on the 2009 census and projected to 2017, taking into account death rate of 7/1000 people. The population will be 538,226 in year 2017 from 516,212 in year 2009. The number of eligible voters in 2013 was 311,321 Based on those who were 16 years and above in the year 2009.
  • 58. Embu contd¡­ NUMBERS PERCENTAGES REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 227,286 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 87.84% TURNOUT 199,648 64% REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE 27,638 36% ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED 84,035 23% ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 311,321 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013 111,673 30%
  • 59. Embu voting trend 2013 227,286 199,648 27,638 84,035 311,321 111,673 REGISTERED VOTERS 2013 ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO VOTED BASED ON 87.84% TURNOUT REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DIDN'T VOTE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED ELIGIBLE VOTERS 2013 TOTAL VOTES LOST IN 2013
  • 60. Embu projection for 2017 The number of eligible voters will be 352,552 based on those who were 11 years in the year 2009. They will have attained 18 years by 2017. There is a possibility that 18,165 people will be dead by year 2017, this is based on death rate criteria of 7/1000 (7 deaths per 1000 people).
  • 61. Embu Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 352,552 ASSUMING 23% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER 81,087 23% REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 271,465 ASSUMING 87.84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE 227,135 84% THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE 44,330 16% TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 125,417 36%
  • 62. Embu Projection 2017 Contd¡­ ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN 2017 ASSUMING 23% OF POPULATION WILL NOT REGISTER REGISTERED VOTERS 2017 ASSUMING 87.84% (VOTER TURN OUT IN 2013) WILL VOTE THEREFORE REGISTERED VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE TOTAL VOTES LOST(BASED ON ABOVE ASSUMPTIONS) 352,552 81,087 271,465 227,135 44,330 125,417
  • 63. SCENARIOS ? Cord with only 8 counties amassing a 75% voter turn out they can accumulate a total of 5,146,839. ? If they can achieve a 90% voter registration in the 8 counties, total people eligible to vote in 2017 will be 6,862,452
  • 64. CONCLUSION A better strategy has to be developed and the following will be areas of focus 1. Issuance of IDS to 18 years and above citizens 2. Ensure the party attains a National outlook in its top officials 3. Build Trust worth coalitions, partnerships and networks with other like minded political parties. E.g. the current coalition 4. Develop a deliberate strategy for 3M Kenyans living in the diaspora 5. Reduce the internal conflicts amongst current crop of elected leaders.