This document summarizes an investment opportunity for a 60 MW geothermal power plant project in Indonesia. Key points include:
- The project requests $218 million USD for 65% equity stake and expects to generate 473,040 MWh annually.
- Financial analysis shows an IRR of 15.2% for 30% equity and 13.56% for 40% equity over the 30-year concession.
- The project has a positive NPV and is considered financially feasible given geothermal resources have been confirmed at the site.
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1. Investment Highlights
Investment of USD 218 million: in return for flexible Equity offering from
65% to 75% on the negotiated tariff prices from USD 7.66 c/kWh to USD 6.99
c/kWh, respectively.
Investment Payoff: According to the project development stages: Deal,
Preliminary Survey Assessment, Exploration, Steam-Field Development and
Power Plant Development. Operations and Maintenance costs will be paid
by the revenue generated.
Estimated Production: Net output of 60 MW (6 units of 10 MW).
Production per year of: 473,040 MW (60 MW x 24h x 365 days x 0.9 CF).
Estimated Revenue per Year: USD 36.23 million (at USD 7.66 c/kWh).
Duration of the Concession: 30 Years after the Commercial Operational
Date of the first unit of 10 MW starts producing.
Power Purchase Agreement (PPA): Guaranteed after the geothermal
resources confirmed by Feasibility Study. PPA will be signed with PLN (The
State-owned electricity company) with demand guaranteed.
Investor to Retain 100% of the Profits: until the payback period is
reached.
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE): The total LCOE is only USD 3.09 c/kWh.
Geothermal Resources: Confirmed from available raw data.
GHG Savings per Year: 458,576 tCO comparing with Coal.
Financial Highlights for the Investment
Equity funding level (between 30% - 40%) to be combined with Debt funding
which will be applied once 50% of Equity has been contributed.
IRR calculated at 15.2% for 30% Equity contribution with ROI of 276% and
Equity payback of 4.7 years. IRR calculated at 13.56% for 40% Equity
contribution with ROI of 226% and Equity payback of 6.02 years.
WACC is calculated at 9.85% (40% Equity) and 9.49% (30% Equity) (based on
an assumed cost of capital at 14%)
The NPV of the project is a positive USD 17.6 million for 30% Equity
contribution (WACC of 9.49%) and a positive USD 14.7 million for 40% Equity
contribution (WACC of 9.85%).
Over the 30-year concession the total project produces Revenue of USD
1,087 million and Total Operating Profit of USD 611 million before tax.
Conclusion: Financial Indices indicate a feasible project since in both
instances the IRR exceeds the WACC with a margin for safety and NPV is
positive.
Renewable Energy
Geothermal Power Plant 60 MW
In Indonesia
Investment Opportunity 2018 for the development and construction of 60 MW Power Plant with
an exceptional, well experienced management team, with over 30 years Industry Experience.
* Flash Indonesia: The country has about
130 active volcanoes. Due to its geological
nature, it has enormous geothermal
potential, estimated at 29 GW (40% of
worlds reserves). The country with the
worlds fourth-largest population (about 260
million) direly lacks sufficient power supplies
needed to boost a surging economy, a feat
that is compounded by its geographic
complexity. The countrys geothermal power
experience got its start in 1983.
* Indonesia: Geothermal Top Country in
added capacity in 2017 and Worlds 2nd
Largest Geothermal Producer in 2018:
Source: ThinkGeoEnergy (May 2018)
* Location of the Geothermal Prospect:
Lampung Indonesia
* Geothermal resources expectation:
2. Company History & Experience
PT IBE: was established in Jakarta at the end of 2015 with the purpose of
exploring opportunities in concession of geothermal power plants.
PT IBE Scope of Works: Project management, Technical expertise, Legal
support (contractual processes, permits, certification, etc.), Liaise with
Institutions & Government and Financial support on assisting the investor.
Shareholders & Experience: Experienced shareholders in geothermal
concession power plants in Indonesia. Management team with over 30-
years experience in managing field operation, studies and planning. At the
exploration stage with geothermal resources proven with success ratio
above 90% of the output expected.
Complete Solution: Management team with capacity of managing all the
stages of the geothermal power plant project: preliminary survey
assessment, exploration, steam-field development, power plant
development and operations & maintenance.
References: Management team has been working, among others with
Pertamina, Chevron International and Geo Dipa Energy. Has been involved in
the major geothermal projects: Darajat (270 MW), Salak (375 MW), Sarulla
(330 MW), Wayang Windu (227 MW), Ulubelu (110 MW).
Geothermal Critical Success Factors
Regulation & Legal Framework: Has been updated to address some
issues identified by international financial institutions and investors.
Management & Technical Team Experience: the proven experience and
connections of PT IBEs shareholders within geothermal industry in
Indonesia is a crucial CSF for the investment and all project success.
Geothermal Resource & Wells: The prospect has high enthalpy, which is
important to maximize the output per well drilled. Past track record of the
well success rate and output success rate has been very high which is crucial
to mitigate the risk of exploration.
Electricity Production and Capacity Factor: Very important for the
revenue, the electricity production is predictable for geothermal power
plants (theoretically 24/7). and its high capacity factor (CF) of 90% turns the
investment very attractive. Revenue = Electricity Production x CF x tariff
Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) & Tariff: The PPA will be signed with
PLN, with demand and transmission capability guaranteed. The payments
can be backed by Indonesia Government. The tariff will be negotiated with
PLN between the range of USD 7.66 cents/kWh to USD 6.99 cents/kWh,
national and regional prices, respectively.
Timeframe and Milestones
Conclusion
Asking price of $218 million for 65% equity within a secure, low risk
investment and stable income for 30 years concession.
* Indonesia Industry Trends: PPAs covering
over 600 MW of renewables were reported as
signed between March and August 2017.
Indonesias Ministry for Energy and Mineral
Resources estimates an overall investment of
USD 1.7 billion in geothermal projects for
2018.A five-year 35 GW Programme (2015-
2019) was announced by President Joko
Widodo in late 2014. The goal is to complete
35 GW of power generation projects by the
end of his first term. Asia Development Bank
and The World Bank, among others, are
heavily financing the geothermal projects.
Global Energy perspective of Indonesia
Government for coming years:
Source: 2014 NEP, BP Statistical Review of WE 2017
* Geothermal Energy: As a renewable
resource, geothermal energy is unaffected by
changes in hydrocarbon prices. It is also the
only renewable source with a potential
capacity factor above 90%.
* LCOE of Renewables: Geothermal energy
has a low power generation cost.
This investment has a very attractive LCOE of
$3.09 c/kWh, which is much lower than the
global average.
Contacts for this Investment Opportunity:
George Christelis
Partner
M: +27 84 333-6444
M: +44 7502 973-250
E: george.christelis@adancorporate.com
Carlos Leiria
Partner
M: +44 7880 992 123
E: carlos.leiria@adancorporate.com
E: life1enterprise@gmail.com
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