![勳仆亳亶仆 Time Series 亳仆亢亳仍亞
丱勵仆亞2 ARIMA (2,1,4)
丱于舒亞亳亟 从仂亳亳亠仆 T 舒亳亳从 仄舒亞舒亟仍舒仍
c 0.0156 1,11 0,271
0.5977 5,82 0,000
-0.8123 -10,0 0,000
0.3422 1,94 0,058
0.9621 6,99 0,000
-0.2002 -1,34 0,187
0.2278 1,86 0,069
R2 0.35
R2ad 0.27
DW [durbin-watson] 1.92
Akaike info criterion -1.49
Schwarz criterion -1.23
1
2
3
1
2
4](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/guriliinzahzeeliinuniinshinjilgee-170609063120/85/Guriliin-zah-zeeliin-uniin-shinjilgee-6-320.jpg)
![勵仍亞 III: 丕乘 勳 丐丼
S = f (pt-1, z) 仆亳亶仍勵勵仍仍亳亶仆 仆从 (1)
D = g (p, pt-1, z) 仍亳亶仆 仆从 (2)
K = h (p, z) 仆唏唏亳亶仆 仆从 (3)
S - D - K = 0 仆于亳亶仆 仆唏唏仍 (4)
(5c) P= F(Rp, Pp, Hp, S, C, pt-1, z) [亞亳仍仆 勵仆亳亶亞 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒亞 亰舒亞于舒]
Labys-亳亶仆 1973 仂仆亟 亞舒亞舒舒仆 唏唏仍亟唏唏仆 亰舒 亰仍 亟
仆于亳亶仆 亰舒亞于舒舒舒 舒仆 舒仆舒舒亞 仆 舒于舒仆.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/guriliinzahzeeliinuniinshinjilgee-170609063120/85/Guriliin-zah-zeeliin-uniin-shinjilgee-7-320.jpg)
![弌亟于亳亶仆 亟仍舒亞亟舒仆 弍舒亶亟舒仍
亅亟亳亶仆 亰舒舒亞 Sanna-Helena Rantala, Jukka Kola, Jyrki Niemi [2009] 仆舒仆
仍亳亶仆 亞亳仍, 弍亟舒舒仆 勵仆仆亟 仆唏仍唏唏仍唏亞 勵亳仆 亰勵亶仍勵勵亟: 从仂仆仂仄亠亳从
亟舒仍亞舒舒, Helsinki-亳亶仆 亳 亞仍, 亠仆亠亢仄亠仆 弍仂仍仂仆 亅从仂仆仂仄亳从亳亶仆
仆亳仄, 个亳仆仍礌亟
亅亟亳亶仆 亰舒舒亞, 亟仍舒舒 Bita Rahimi Badr, Reza Moghaddasi [2009] 仆舒仆
舒仆 仍舒舒仆弍亟舒亶仆 亰舒 亰仍 亟 勵仆亳亶仆 舒舒仄舒亞仍舒仍, Islamic Azad-仆 亳
亞仍, 舒仆
亅亟亳亶仆 亰舒舒亞 Dean T Chen, Gerard S. Dharmaratne [1996] 仆舒仆, 勵勵亳亶仆
勵仆亳亶亞 仂亟仂仂亶仍仂 于 仍亳亶仆 亰舒亞于舒, Review of Agricultural
Economics, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Jan., 1996), pp. 137-146](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/guriliinzahzeeliinuniinshinjilgee-170609063120/85/Guriliin-zah-zeeliin-uniin-shinjilgee-8-320.jpg)
![勳仆仍亞仆亳亶 勵 亟勵仆
DLFP= -8.81- 0.5*DLHP(-2)+ 0.32*DLPP(-1) + 1.6*DLRP - 0.003*DLS + 0.68*DLFP(-1)
T stat: [-2.14] [-2.11] [1.9] [2.18] [-0.035] [5.01]
R2 = 0.88 R2ad = 0.86 n = 32 dw = 2.16
勳 亟勵仆亞 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒于舒仍:
∃仆勵勵 勵仆仍亞仆亳亶 勵 亟勵仆亞 舒舒舒亟 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒亞 于舒亞亟仆 丐 亳仆亢勵勵 仆, 从仂亳亳亠仆勵勵亟亳亶亞 舒亳亳从亳亶仆
于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶仆舒 亞亟亞亳亶亞 舒仍亢 弍舒亶亞舒舒 弍唏亞唏唏亟 亞 亰舒亞于舒 仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亳亶亞 88 于舒亶 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒亢 弍舒亶仆舒.
∃Ｐ姉夷夷出英亟舒亶仆 勵仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 唏唏亞 仆唏仍唏唏亶 亞仆 勵 亟勵仆 亞舒舒仆 弍唏亞唏唏亟 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶仆舒.
亅仆 仆 仍舒舒仆弍亟舒亶亞 仆亞 仆亞亢 唏唏仍唏唏亟 0.5 于亳舒 唏唏仍唏亞亟唏仆唏 亞亟亞亳亶亞 舒仍亢 弍舒亶仆舒.
∃亠仆亰亳仆 勵仆亳亶仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 勵亰勵勵仍 仆唏仍唏唏 丐 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶亞舒舒 弍唏亞唏唏亟 亠亞 仆唏仍唏唏亶 亞亢
亞舒舒仆 仆 舒舒仄舒亞仍舒亢 弍舒亶舒仆舒亶 舒舒 弍舒亶仆舒. 亠仆亰亳仆亳亶 勵仆亳亶亞 仆亞 仆亞亢 仆仄亞亟勵勵仍亟 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亳亶亞 0,32 于亳舒
仆仄亞亟仆.
∃亟舒舒仆 勵仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 亠亞 仆唏仍唏唏亶 弍唏亞唏唏亟 弍亟舒舒仆 勵仆亳亶亞 仆亞 仆亞亢 唏唏仍唏唏亟 亞亳仍仆 勵仆 1,6 于亳舒
唏唏仍唏亞亟唏仆唏 亞仆 勵 亟勵仆 亞舒舒仆 弍舒亶仆舒. 亅仆 仆 丐 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶仆舒.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/guriliinzahzeeliinuniinshinjilgee-170609063120/85/Guriliin-zah-zeeliin-uniin-shinjilgee-10-320.jpg)
![耽狸叩単多丹箪鱈., 尊鱈探単樽存谷., 耽鱈達., 箪但箪谷狸., 鱈探旦箪旦箪達., 淡歎坦谷坦坦鱈.,
ﾃ消鈎叩嘆丹., (2007), 樽鱈達樽谷 坦谷単短鱈 巽探 巽箪箪谷竪辿鱈 尊丹単尊谷辰尊尊鱈竪辿 尊鱈尊尊達竪辿鱈 叩辿辰谷, 旦淡辰短鱈
嘆尊谷尊但, 辰竪辿鱈 巽単達竪辿鱈 箪丹探 歎尊谷尊尊鱈竪辿 嘆樽辿狸-2007
ﾃ消鈎旦箪旦箪達., 箪丹谷箪鱈歎竪狸箪達., 樽達嘆達箪丹箪谷.,(2007) 亳仍 弍仂仍仂仆 亞亳仍舒仆
叩勵亞亟勵勵仆亳亶 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 勵仆亳亶仆 唏唏仍亳亶仆 舒仍舒舒 亳亶仆 単坦辰谷達, 坦辰丹達
叩坦単 尊丹単尊谷辰尊尊鱈竪辿達 探耽鱈鱈 巽樽探竪旦坦坦谷探 達巽丹.
Sanna-Helena Rantala, Jukka Kola, Jyrki Niemi [2009], Factors affecting world
cereal prices: an econometric study, University of Helsinki, Department of
Economics and Management, Finland
Bita Rahimi Badr & Reza Moghaddasi, [2009], IRAN WHEAT PRICE
FORECASTING PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC, Islamic Azad
University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran
Dean T Chen & Gerard S. Dharmaratne, [1996] , FARM PRICE RESPONSE TO
SUPPLY SHOCKS: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE INVERSE DEMAND
STRUCTURAL MODELS, Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Jan.,
1996), pp. 137-146
www.ursulduun.mn
www.nso.mn
www.mongolbank.mn
www.mofa.gov.mn/mn/
亳亞仍舒舒仆 仄舒亠亳舒仍仆 亢舒亞舒舒仍](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/guriliinzahzeeliinuniinshinjilgee-170609063120/85/Guriliin-zah-zeeliin-uniin-shinjilgee-12-320.jpg)
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- 1. 亳仍仆 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 勵仆亳亶仆 亳仆亢亳仍亞 仂仆亞仂仍 丕仍仆 弌亞仍 亅亟亳亶仆 舒亞亳亶仆 弌亞仍 亅从仂仆仂仄亳从亳亶仆 仆亳仄 丕亟亳亟舒亞 弍舒亞: 丱. 丶于仍仄舒舒 /h.D 亟仂从仂/ 丿勵勵仄亢仍亞 弍舒亞: 勵亶亞仆: . 仆仆亟仂亢 /亅-4/ 丕仍舒舒仆弍舒舒舒 仂 2011 仂仆
- 2. 丕丕 丱丕丕 勵仍亞 I: 丕乘 丱 亅亅 弌丕 勵仍亞 II: 丕乘 勳 丿亅亅 勵仍亞 III: 丕乘 勳 丐丼 勳亅丐 亳亞仍舒舒仆 仄舒亠亳舒仍仆 亢舒亞舒舒仍
- 3. 丱丕丕 亅仆勵勵 亟舒仍亞舒舒仆 舒亢仍舒舒 唏唏亳亶仆 仂仆 亞亳仍仆 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 勵仆仆亟 仆唏仍唏唏仍唏亞 勵亳仆 亰勵亶仍亳亶亞 亟亳亶仆 亰舒亞亳亶仆 亰舒亞于舒 仍舒仆 仂亟仂仂亶仍亢, 亟亞亳亶亞 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶亞舒舒 仆唏仍唏唏仍亢 弍舒亶亞舒舒 亳亶亞 仆 舒仍亞舒亞 亰仂亳仍仂仂. Labys-仆 (1973) 仆仍亶 亟亳亶仆 亰舒舒亞 亟舒 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亳亶仆 亠唏仆亳亶 亰舒亞于舒 亳仍舒仆 亟舒仍亞舒舒仆 勵仆亟仆 亰舒亞于舒亞 仂亟仂仂亶仍仍仂仂. 弌亟舒仍亞舒舒仆 勵 亟勵仆亟 仍舒舒仆弍亟舒亶 弍仂仍仂仆 弍亟舒舒仆 勵仆勵勵亟 仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 勵亶 仆唏仍唏唏亶 亞舒舒仆.
- 4. 勵仍亞 I: 丕乘 丱 亅亅 弌丕 勳亶仍亟于仍亞亟亳亶仆 仂仂, 仄亢 130 亞舒亶 仗勵勵勵勵亟, 亟仂仂仂亟仆 勵亶仍亟于仍仍 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 25-30% 仄仗仂仆 90%-亞 仂仂仆 仂仍弍仂仂仆 仍舒舒 仂仍亢 亳亟亞 勵亞亟勵勵仆亳亶 唏唏仍 丿亳亞亳亶仆 于亟 磿亞舒舒舒亶 唏仍亳亶仆 弍勵亞亟勵勵仆 勵亶仍亟于仍亞亟亟亞 弌亟舒仍亞舒舒仆亟舒舒 仆亞仆 唏仍亳亶仆 弍勵亞亟勵勵仆 弍仂仍亞仂仂仆 舒 亰仍亳亶仆 唏于仍唏唏仍 丱丱/2009 仂仆/ = 1794.94 丱丱/2010 仂仆/ = 1908.64 丱丱<1000 唏于仍唏唏仍 弍舒亞舒 1000<丱丱<1800 亟仆亟 丱丱>1800 唏仆亟唏 舒 亰仍 勵勵 仆于 弍仂仍仂仄亢 丱仍 亰勵亶仆 仂仆 舒仍舒舒 礆舒 仆亞仆 舒舒亟 弍舒亶亞勵亶 丕亞 亰舒 亰仍 勵勵 仆于亳亶仆 仍亟 仂仄, 勵亳仆 舒亟仍仆 于亟 唏仆亟唏 弍舒亶, 仆唏唏 弍仂仍仂仄亢 亳, 仂亟仂仂亶 舒亞 亞舒舒舒仆亟 舒亢亳仍仍舒亟舒舒 舒仍亟舒亞亟舒仍 勵仍
- 5. 勵仍亞 II: 丕乘 勳 丿亅亅 舒 亰仍亳亶仆 勵仆, 勵勵仆亟 仆唏仍唏唏仍唏亞 勵亳仆 亰勵亶仍 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 2006 2007 2008 price of flour wheat 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 inf price of flour 0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 2006 2007 2008 2009 price of petrol price of flour 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
- 6. 勳仆亳亶仆 Time Series 亳仆亢亳仍亞 丱勵仆亞2 ARIMA (2,1,4) 丱于舒亞亳亟 从仂亳亳亠仆 T 舒亳亳从 仄舒亞舒亟仍舒仍 c 0.0156 1,11 0,271 0.5977 5,82 0,000 -0.8123 -10,0 0,000 0.3422 1,94 0,058 0.9621 6,99 0,000 -0.2002 -1,34 0,187 0.2278 1,86 0,069 R2 0.35 R2ad 0.27 DW [durbin-watson] 1.92 Akaike info criterion -1.49 Schwarz criterion -1.23 1 2 3 1 2 4
- 7. 勵仍亞 III: 丕乘 勳 丐丼 S = f (pt-1, z) 仆亳亶仍勵勵仍仍亳亶仆 仆从 (1) D = g (p, pt-1, z) 仍亳亶仆 仆从 (2) K = h (p, z) 仆唏唏亳亶仆 仆从 (3) S - D - K = 0 仆于亳亶仆 仆唏唏仍 (4) (5c) P= F(Rp, Pp, Hp, S, C, pt-1, z) [亞亳仍仆 勵仆亳亶亞 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒亞 亰舒亞于舒] Labys-亳亶仆 1973 仂仆亟 亞舒亞舒舒仆 唏唏仍亟唏唏仆 亰舒 亰仍 亟 仆于亳亶仆 亰舒亞于舒舒舒 舒仆 舒仆舒舒亞 仆 舒于舒仆.
- 8. 弌亟于亳亶仆 亟仍舒亞亟舒仆 弍舒亶亟舒仍 亅亟亳亶仆 亰舒舒亞 Sanna-Helena Rantala, Jukka Kola, Jyrki Niemi [2009] 仆舒仆 仍亳亶仆 亞亳仍, 弍亟舒舒仆 勵仆仆亟 仆唏仍唏唏仍唏亞 勵亳仆 亰勵亶仍勵勵亟: 从仂仆仂仄亠亳从 亟舒仍亞舒舒, Helsinki-亳亶仆 亳 亞仍, 亠仆亠亢仄亠仆 弍仂仍仂仆 亅从仂仆仂仄亳从亳亶仆 仆亳仄, 个亳仆仍礌亟 亅亟亳亶仆 亰舒舒亞, 亟仍舒舒 Bita Rahimi Badr, Reza Moghaddasi [2009] 仆舒仆 舒仆 仍舒舒仆弍亟舒亶仆 亰舒 亰仍 亟 勵仆亳亶仆 舒舒仄舒亞仍舒仍, Islamic Azad-仆 亳 亞仍, 舒仆 亅亟亳亶仆 亰舒舒亞 Dean T Chen, Gerard S. Dharmaratne [1996] 仆舒仆, 勵勵亳亶仆 勵仆亳亶亞 仂亟仂仂亶仍仂 于 仍亳亶仆 亰舒亞于舒, Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Jan., 1996), pp. 137-146
- 9. 勳仆仍亞亟仆 亰舒亞于舒 DLFP=c + 留1*DLHP(-2) + 留2*DLPP(-1) + 留3*DLRP + 留4*DLS + 留5*DLFP(-1) (5d) 丱于舒亞亟亳亶仆 舒亶仍弍舒 丱于舒亞亟亳亶仆 仆 丐舒亶仍弍舒 (D - 亞亟亞 仆 亟亳亠亠仆, L-仍仂亞舒亳仄 ) DLFP 亳仍仆 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 亟仆亟舒亢 勵仆 (log, difference) DLHP 丕仍舒舒仆弍亟舒亶仆 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 勵仆 (log, difference) DLPP 亳仆亰亠仆亳亶 勵仆 (log, difference) DLRP 亟舒舒仆 亟仆亟舒亢 勵仆 (log, difference) DLS 亳仍仆 仆亳亶仍勵勵仍仍, 弍勵仆 亢亳仍, 亳仄仗仂 弍舒亞舒仆 (log, difference)
- 10. 勳仆仍亞仆亳亶 勵 亟勵仆 DLFP= -8.81- 0.5*DLHP(-2)+ 0.32*DLPP(-1) + 1.6*DLRP - 0.003*DLS + 0.68*DLFP(-1) T stat: [-2.14] [-2.11] [1.9] [2.18] [-0.035] [5.01] R2 = 0.88 R2ad = 0.86 n = 32 dw = 2.16 勳 亟勵仆亞 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒于舒仍: ∃仆勵勵 勵仆仍亞仆亳亶 勵 亟勵仆亞 舒舒舒亟 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒亞 于舒亞亟仆 丐 亳仆亢勵勵 仆, 从仂亳亳亠仆勵勵亟亳亶亞 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶仆舒 亞亟亞亳亶亞 舒仍亢 弍舒亶亞舒舒 弍唏亞唏唏亟 亞 亰舒亞于舒 仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亳亶亞 88 于舒亶 舒亶仍弍舒仍舒亢 弍舒亶仆舒. ∃Ｐ姉夷夷出英亟舒亶仆 勵仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 唏唏亞 仆唏仍唏唏亶 亞仆 勵 亟勵仆 亞舒舒仆 弍唏亞唏唏亟 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶仆舒. 亅仆 仆 仍舒舒仆弍亟舒亶亞 仆亞 仆亞亢 唏唏仍唏唏亟 0.5 于亳舒 唏唏仍唏亞亟唏仆唏 亞亟亞亳亶亞 舒仍亢 弍舒亶仆舒. ∃亠仆亰亳仆 勵仆亳亶仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 勵亰勵勵仍 仆唏仍唏唏 丐 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶亞舒舒 弍唏亞唏唏亟 亠亞 仆唏仍唏唏亶 亞亢 亞舒舒仆 仆 舒舒仄舒亞仍舒亢 弍舒亶舒仆舒亶 舒舒 弍舒亶仆舒. 亠仆亰亳仆亳亶 勵仆亳亶亞 仆亞 仆亞亢 仆仄亞亟勵勵仍亟 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亳亶亞 0,32 于亳舒 仆仄亞亟仆. ∃亟舒舒仆 勵仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 亠亞 仆唏仍唏唏亶 弍唏亞唏唏亟 弍亟舒舒仆 勵仆亳亶亞 仆亞 仆亞亢 唏唏仍唏唏亟 亞亳仍仆 勵仆 1,6 于亳舒 唏唏仍唏亞亟唏仆唏 亞仆 勵 亟勵仆 亞舒舒仆 弍舒亶仆舒. 亅仆 仆 丐 舒亳亳从亳亶仆 于亟 仆舒亶亟于舒舒亶 弍舒亶仆舒.
- 11. 勳亅丐 弌亟舒仍亞舒舒仆 勵 亟勵仆亟 仍亞仍舒仆 亟舒舒舒 亟勵亞仆仍亳亶亞 亳亶亢 弍舒亶仆舒. 亳仍仆 亰舒 亰仍 亟 舒舒仆亞亶 仂仍仂仆 仂仂仆 仗勵勵勵勵亟 勵亶仍 舒亢亳仍仍舒亞舒舒 磦仍亟舒亞 弍仂仍仂于 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 唏于仍唏唏仍 唏仆亟唏 弍仂仍仂仆亞 丱亠亳仆亟舒仍-丱亠仄舒仆 亳仆亟亠从 舒仍亢 弍舒亶仆舒. 亳仍仆 勵仆亟 仆唏仍唏唏仍唏亞 勵亳仆 亰勵亶仍亳亶亞 仂亟仂仂亶仍仂仂亟 仍舒舒仆弍亟舒亶 弍仂仍仂仆 弍亟舒舒仆 勵仆 亞亳仍仆 勵仆亟 舒仍 仆唏仍唏唏亶 弍舒亶仆舒. 丱舒亳仆 亞亳仍仆 仆亳亶仍勵勵仍仍 舒 仂仍弍仂亞亟仂仍 弍舒亞舒 弍舒亶仆舒 亞仆 勵 亟勵仆亟 勵仍. 勳仆亳亶仆 唏仆亞唏唏仆 勵亠亳亶仆 亞舒 仆 亟舒舒舒 勵亠亟 仆亞 仍舒亞亳亶仆 仂仂亞亟仂仍仂亶亞仂仂 勵亶 仆唏仍唏唏仍亢 弍舒亶亞舒舒 仆 亞舒舒舒仆 于舒舒仆 亳仆亢亳仍亞亶 舒舒 弍舒亶仆舒.
- 12. 耽狸叩単多丹箪鱈., 尊鱈探単樽存谷., 耽鱈達., 箪但箪谷狸., 鱈探旦箪旦箪達., 淡歎坦谷坦坦鱈., ﾃ消鈎叩嘆丹., (2007), 樽鱈達樽谷 坦谷単短鱈 巽探 巽箪箪谷竪辿鱈 尊丹単尊谷辰尊尊鱈竪辿 尊鱈尊尊達竪辿鱈 叩辿辰谷, 旦淡辰短鱈 嘆尊谷尊但, 辰竪辿鱈 巽単達竪辿鱈 箪丹探 歎尊谷尊尊鱈竪辿 嘆樽辿狸-2007 ﾃ消鈎旦箪旦箪達., 箪丹谷箪鱈歎竪狸箪達., 樽達嘆達箪丹箪谷.,(2007) 亳仍 弍仂仍仂仆 亞亳仍舒仆 叩勵亞亟勵勵仆亳亶 亰舒 亰仍亳亶仆 勵仆亳亶仆 唏唏仍亳亶仆 舒仍舒舒 亳亶仆 単坦辰谷達, 坦辰丹達 叩坦単 尊丹単尊谷辰尊尊鱈竪辿達 探耽鱈鱈 巽樽探竪旦坦坦谷探 達巽丹. Sanna-Helena Rantala, Jukka Kola, Jyrki Niemi [2009], Factors affecting world cereal prices: an econometric study, University of Helsinki, Department of Economics and Management, Finland Bita Rahimi Badr & Reza Moghaddasi, [2009], IRAN WHEAT PRICE FORECASTING PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran Dean T Chen & Gerard S. Dharmaratne, [1996] , FARM PRICE RESPONSE TO SUPPLY SHOCKS: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE INVERSE DEMAND STRUCTURAL MODELS, Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Jan., 1996), pp. 137-146 www.ursulduun.mn www.nso.mn www.mongolbank.mn www.mofa.gov.mn/mn/ 亳亞仍舒舒仆 仄舒亠亳舒仍仆 亢舒亞舒舒仍