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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report March January – February 09

January Numbers - Updated 1953 New Listings 370 Sold Listings 588 Listings Pending Average 106 Days on Market for Sold Listings

January Numbers - Final *Listings Pending may have closed in January, may have closed in February, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

February Numbers - Preliminary 1491 New Listings 290 Sold Listings 566 Listings Pending Average 100 Days on Market for Sold Listings

February Numbers - Preliminary *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 450 closed sales for February. I was quite off, predicting 475 for January and only having 370 successfully close.

Conclusions Final for January is 106. I was looking for the under 100… preliminary was 101 days. For February, preliminary is 100. I would really like to see numbers get under 90 in February. I don’t expect it.

January Absorption Rates 7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Dec, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 13.1 months inventory 6 month average: 14.6 months inventory 3 month average: 18.5 months inventory

February Absorption Rates 7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Jan., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 13.5 months inventory 6 month average: 16.6 months inventory 3 month average: 20.0 months inventory

Conclusions Jan. final numbers showed sales down 10% from 2008. Also important, 28.8% more homes went under contract in Dec. that closed in January. This means that 3 in 10 contracts may have failed. There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.

New/Sold Ratio This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

New/Sold Ratio In Jan., 19% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 10 homes that were put up for sale, 2 sold. I thought we would get to 30%. In Feb., early numbers point to 19% (1:5), and I only expect to see that upgrade to 30% for the final numbers.

Conclusion The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. This number tops around 67% Anything under 33% is very weak. I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.

Average Sales Price Jan. - $181,501 Down 18.9% from January 2008 Feb. - $181,937 Down 25.5% from February 2008 The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back… until January. We’ll have to see the finals.

Average Sales Price Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

List Price/Sales Price Ratio January – 94.01% February – 93.51% Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08. Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”

Conclusion List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. The indications are also very general.

Overall Conclusion Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago (except December). Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might just skip along the bottom for a few months.

Overall Conclusions September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was against a weak month last year. I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until later in the spring. There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

Overall Conclusions I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis. I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table. March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season. I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.

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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 3 09

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