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Helena chari esvep - 26.2.14

Helena Chari
Helena Chari

The document discusses the economic situation in Greece based on data from surveys and statistics organizations. It notes that GDP growth has been negative for 6 consecutive years, with a 7.1% decline in GDP in 2012. Unemployment is at 28% overall and 61.4% for youth. Consumer spending and retail sales have declined year-over-year. Consumer confidence and business confidence are low. Trust in institutions has declined significantly. The majority of Greeks have a negative outlook on the future of the economy and their personal financial situation. Consumers are spending less by buying fewer items, shopping less frequently, and switching to cheaper private label and discounted options. The key takeaways provided at the end emphasize understanding consumers and shoppers

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Helena Chari | TNS @helena_chari 裡僚劉隆旅凌 裡 26.2.2014 息TNS 2014 1
Living in a half-built house 息TNS 2014 2
息TNS 2014 3
The press coverage 息TNS 2014 4
GDP growth turns negativefor 6th consecutive year % change vs previous year 5.5 3.5 -0.2 -3.1 -3.8 -4.9 -7.1 2006 2007 息TNS 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 -6.4 2012 2013e 5
gross disposable income -40% Source: ELSTAT 息TNS 2014 6
Consumer spending 息TNS 2014 7
No one believes the economy is doing well (only 2% agree) Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 8
unemployment 28% Source: ELSTAT 息TNS 2014 9
youth unemployment 61.4% Source: ELSTAT 息TNS 2014 10
No one believes the employment situation is good (only 1% agrees) Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 11
Levels of trust have hit the floor (except for the Internet) tend to trust - % Political parties Government Parliament Television 17 4 34 10 49 12 28 15 The UN The EU 39 20 21 Regional/Local public authorities 23 The press 59 23 Radio Internet 2008 2013 30 35 48 32 33 38 Source: Eurobarometer 69 & 80 息TNS 2014 12
息TNS 2014 13
How we currently see things 46 Satisfaction with life (total 'satisfied') 37 Spring '11 26 Autumn '11 32 Autumn '12 36 38 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Personal job situation (total 'good') 19 Spring '11 36 18 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 21 22 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Financial situation of h/h (total 'good') 29 24 Spring '11 22 22 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 14
What we expect in 12 months Your life in general (total 'worse') 46 Spring '11 61 Autumn '11 57 Autumn '12 46 42 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Personal job situation (total 'worse') 42 30 Spring '11 Autumn '11 36 35 Autumn '12 Spring '13 30 Autumn '13 Financial situation of h/h (total 'worse') 59 Spring '11 67 Autumn '11 62 Autumn '12 57 Spring '13 52 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 15
We also expect things to be less worse for the economy & unemployment Employment situation in Greece (total 'worse') 79 82 81 68 Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 70 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Situation of Greek economy (total 'worse') 75 78 76 62 Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 63 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 16
Retail sales year on year 息TNS 2014 17
Retail sales year on year 息TNS 2014 18
Consumer confidence 息TNS 2014 19
Consumer confidence 息TNS 2014 20
Business confidence 息TNS 2014 21
New orders 息TNS 2014 22
Manufacturing PMI 息TNS 2014 23
息TNS 2014 24
息TNS 2014 25
What has been the consumer reaction? 息TNS 2014 26
Need to have > Nice to have Growing trend of categories decreasing in penetration Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
Consumers have spent less (vs 2012) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 28
Consumers have bought less (vs 2012) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 29
The 2013 shopping trip vs 2012: Basket size (volume) Same volume Basket value Frequency Paying less Less often Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 30
The evolution of shopping missions: Smaller baskets are becoming more important Occasions % Spend % 13.9 6.4 13.7 6.2 13.4 27.4 25.9 25.1 37.5 37.8 37.7 25.3 25.4 25.5 33.3 34.1 34.4 13.9 14.6 15.0 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 7.0 stock up mainstream top up proximity 41.6 MAT Nov 11 42.1 MAT Nov 12 42.7 MAT Nov 13 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
Smaller baskets 1. are the only shopping mission maintaining frequency 2. have significant growth in packs/trip 3. are flat in spend/trip Frequency Packs/trip Spend/trip MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 38.7 39.4 39.5 3.69 3.7 3.81 6.24 6.19 6.18 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
Shift to cheaper options Promotions Prices Downtrading Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
The steady march of private labels 息TNS 2014
You will find in every 6 out of ten baskets at least one private label product. And its a growing trend 64.4 63.5 61.3 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 35
Private Label volume share (in units) 38.1% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 36
Private Label - value share 27.4% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 37
Private Label value share differs widely category by category 76 54 53 52 39 38 30 25 14 paper products edible oils RTE canned food frozen food alcoholic beverages dairy products snacks detergents personal care Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 38
the Price is an issue 息TNS 2014 39
息TNS 2014
息TNS 2014 2,500 Spend (000) 24-Nov-13 27-Oct-13 29-Sep-13 25-Aug-13 28-Jul-13 30-Jun-13 26-May-13 28-Apr-13 31-Mar-13 24-Feb-13 27-Jan-13 30-Dec-12 25-Nov-12 28-Oct-12 30-Sep-12 26-Aug-12 29-Jul-12 01-Jul-12 27-May-12 29-Apr-12 01-Apr-12 26-Feb-12 29-Jan-12 Rolling 里 4,000 800 700 3,500 600 3,000 500 Volume (000 litres) - Actual 01-Jan-12 4,500 27-Nov-11 Spend (000) - Actual Syoss has grown share of spend by 59% and share of volume by 92% 900 400 Volume (000 litres) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
and the single biggest contributor to its growth in spend has been penetration Average price has declined by 14% Volume per trip grew by 14% Penetration grew by 43% Frequency grew by 11% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
留粒粒竜了亮留旅虜流 凌旅侶留 竜 凌旅流 里旅亮流 Average price/volume Shampoo total 6.63 Head&Shoulders Ultrex Pantene Fructis Timotei Johnsons Syoss Private Labels 8.70 8.22 8.16 7.94 5.78 5.58 4.61 2.87 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
息TNS 2014 44
How can a brand grow? 息TNS 2014 45
Loyalty is very hard to come by (for brands) even for market leaders Loyalty in spend - % 43 57 45 55 Coca-Cola Colgate 52 48 Nescafe 52 48 Ariel 56 63 67 69 72 73 44 37 33 31 28 27 Amita Pantene Soupline Fitness Papagalos Misko Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 46
What makes less of a difference is avg. weight of purchase ie, loyalty, or how many times/how much buyers of a brand will buy in a year 息TNS 2014
What makes more of a difference is appeal ie, penetration, or the number of buyers a brand has 息TNS 2014
So, does that mean that making shoppers more loyal to my brand isnt that important? Surely the most loyal shoppers are the most important? 息TNS 2014
Welllets take Coca-Cola as an example, the leading brand in terms of penetration 6% and only 16% of them are heavy buyers 15.8% of brand shoppers are 100% loyal Heavy Buyers Medium Buyers Light Buyers Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
Coca-Cola buyers are also buying: Fanta 53 Ivi 46 Private Labels 46 Lux 43 Sprite Pepsi Epsa 39 30 27 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
and lets look at another popular brandPantene - with lower penetration than Coca-Cola - of 37% 9% and only 20% of them are heavy buyers of brand shoppers are 100% loyal Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
Pantene buyers are also buying: Syoss 31 Head&Shoulders 24 Ultrex 21 Sunsilk 20 Fructis 20 Elvive 19 Timotei 18 Private Labels 18 Beer 16 Wash&Go 14 Johnson's 13 Herbal Essences Gliss 13 11 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
Even when overall brand sales/penetration levels are static the consumers underneath are moving 息TNS 2014
息TNS 2014 55
Loyalty is very hard to come by (for retailers as well) with, on average, 5 retailers in their repertoire Loyalty in spend - % 66 34 Masoutis 69 31 Sklavenitis 77 80 85 85 86 88 23 20 15 15 14 12 Grp CRF AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos My Market Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 56
Retailer frequency 91 35 22 Total Masoutis Sklavenitis 18 15 14 14 13 Grp Carrefour AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 57
Your consumers are just somebody elses consumer who occasionally buy you (this applies equally to light or to heavy buyers) 息TNS 2014
息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
Greece 息TNS 2014 69

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Helena chari esvep - 26.2.14

  • 1. Helena Chari | TNS @helena_chari 裡僚劉隆旅凌 裡 26.2.2014 息TNS 2014 1
  • 2. Living in a half-built house 息TNS 2014 2
  • 5. GDP growth turns negativefor 6th consecutive year % change vs previous year 5.5 3.5 -0.2 -3.1 -3.8 -4.9 -7.1 2006 2007 息TNS 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 -6.4 2012 2013e 5
  • 8. No one believes the economy is doing well (only 2% agree) Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 8
  • 11. No one believes the employment situation is good (only 1% agrees) Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 11
  • 12. Levels of trust have hit the floor (except for the Internet) tend to trust - % Political parties Government Parliament Television 17 4 34 10 49 12 28 15 The UN The EU 39 20 21 Regional/Local public authorities 23 The press 59 23 Radio Internet 2008 2013 30 35 48 32 33 38 Source: Eurobarometer 69 & 80 息TNS 2014 12
  • 14. How we currently see things 46 Satisfaction with life (total 'satisfied') 37 Spring '11 26 Autumn '11 32 Autumn '12 36 38 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Personal job situation (total 'good') 19 Spring '11 36 18 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 21 22 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Financial situation of h/h (total 'good') 29 24 Spring '11 22 22 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 14
  • 15. What we expect in 12 months Your life in general (total 'worse') 46 Spring '11 61 Autumn '11 57 Autumn '12 46 42 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Personal job situation (total 'worse') 42 30 Spring '11 Autumn '11 36 35 Autumn '12 Spring '13 30 Autumn '13 Financial situation of h/h (total 'worse') 59 Spring '11 67 Autumn '11 62 Autumn '12 57 Spring '13 52 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 15
  • 16. We also expect things to be less worse for the economy & unemployment Employment situation in Greece (total 'worse') 79 82 81 68 Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 70 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Situation of Greek economy (total 'worse') 75 78 76 62 Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 63 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer 息TNS 2014 16
  • 17. Retail sales year on year 息TNS 2014 17
  • 18. Retail sales year on year 息TNS 2014 18
  • 26. What has been the consumer reaction? 息TNS 2014 26
  • 27. Need to have > Nice to have Growing trend of categories decreasing in penetration Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 28. Consumers have spent less (vs 2012) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 28
  • 29. Consumers have bought less (vs 2012) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 29
  • 30. The 2013 shopping trip vs 2012: Basket size (volume) Same volume Basket value Frequency Paying less Less often Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 30
  • 31. The evolution of shopping missions: Smaller baskets are becoming more important Occasions % Spend % 13.9 6.4 13.7 6.2 13.4 27.4 25.9 25.1 37.5 37.8 37.7 25.3 25.4 25.5 33.3 34.1 34.4 13.9 14.6 15.0 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 7.0 stock up mainstream top up proximity 41.6 MAT Nov 11 42.1 MAT Nov 12 42.7 MAT Nov 13 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 32. Smaller baskets 1. are the only shopping mission maintaining frequency 2. have significant growth in packs/trip 3. are flat in spend/trip Frequency Packs/trip Spend/trip MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 38.7 39.4 39.5 3.69 3.7 3.81 6.24 6.19 6.18 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 33. Shift to cheaper options Promotions Prices Downtrading Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 34. The steady march of private labels 息TNS 2014
  • 35. You will find in every 6 out of ten baskets at least one private label product. And its a growing trend 64.4 63.5 61.3 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 35
  • 36. Private Label volume share (in units) 38.1% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 36
  • 37. Private Label - value share 27.4% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 37
  • 38. Private Label value share differs widely category by category 76 54 53 52 39 38 30 25 14 paper products edible oils RTE canned food frozen food alcoholic beverages dairy products snacks detergents personal care Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 38
  • 39. the Price is an issue 息TNS 2014 39
  • 41. 息TNS 2014 2,500 Spend (000) 24-Nov-13 27-Oct-13 29-Sep-13 25-Aug-13 28-Jul-13 30-Jun-13 26-May-13 28-Apr-13 31-Mar-13 24-Feb-13 27-Jan-13 30-Dec-12 25-Nov-12 28-Oct-12 30-Sep-12 26-Aug-12 29-Jul-12 01-Jul-12 27-May-12 29-Apr-12 01-Apr-12 26-Feb-12 29-Jan-12 Rolling 里 4,000 800 700 3,500 600 3,000 500 Volume (000 litres) - Actual 01-Jan-12 4,500 27-Nov-11 Spend (000) - Actual Syoss has grown share of spend by 59% and share of volume by 92% 900 400 Volume (000 litres) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
  • 42. and the single biggest contributor to its growth in spend has been penetration Average price has declined by 14% Volume per trip grew by 14% Penetration grew by 43% Frequency grew by 11% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 43. 留粒粒竜了亮留旅虜流 凌旅侶留 竜 凌旅流 里旅亮流 Average price/volume Shampoo total 6.63 Head&Shoulders Ultrex Pantene Fructis Timotei Johnsons Syoss Private Labels 8.70 8.22 8.16 7.94 5.78 5.58 4.61 2.87 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 45. How can a brand grow? 息TNS 2014 45
  • 46. Loyalty is very hard to come by (for brands) even for market leaders Loyalty in spend - % 43 57 45 55 Coca-Cola Colgate 52 48 Nescafe 52 48 Ariel 56 63 67 69 72 73 44 37 33 31 28 27 Amita Pantene Soupline Fitness Papagalos Misko Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 46
  • 47. What makes less of a difference is avg. weight of purchase ie, loyalty, or how many times/how much buyers of a brand will buy in a year 息TNS 2014
  • 48. What makes more of a difference is appeal ie, penetration, or the number of buyers a brand has 息TNS 2014
  • 49. So, does that mean that making shoppers more loyal to my brand isnt that important? Surely the most loyal shoppers are the most important? 息TNS 2014
  • 50. Welllets take Coca-Cola as an example, the leading brand in terms of penetration 6% and only 16% of them are heavy buyers 15.8% of brand shoppers are 100% loyal Heavy Buyers Medium Buyers Light Buyers Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 51. Coca-Cola buyers are also buying: Fanta 53 Ivi 46 Private Labels 46 Lux 43 Sprite Pepsi Epsa 39 30 27 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 52. and lets look at another popular brandPantene - with lower penetration than Coca-Cola - of 37% 9% and only 20% of them are heavy buyers of brand shoppers are 100% loyal Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 53. Pantene buyers are also buying: Syoss 31 Head&Shoulders 24 Ultrex 21 Sunsilk 20 Fructis 20 Elvive 19 Timotei 18 Private Labels 18 Beer 16 Wash&Go 14 Johnson's 13 Herbal Essences Gliss 13 11 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014
  • 54. Even when overall brand sales/penetration levels are static the consumers underneath are moving 息TNS 2014
  • 56. Loyalty is very hard to come by (for retailers as well) with, on average, 5 retailers in their repertoire Loyalty in spend - % 66 34 Masoutis 69 31 Sklavenitis 77 80 85 85 86 88 23 20 15 15 14 12 Grp CRF AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos My Market Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel 息TNS 2014 56
  • 58. Your consumers are just somebody elses consumer who occasionally buy you (this applies equally to light or to heavy buyers) 息TNS 2014
  • 60. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 61. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 62. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 63. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 64. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 65. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 66. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 67. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014
  • 68. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology 息TNS 2014