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Calling BS on Social Media Gurus

B
berkun

In the world of Web 2.0, anyone can claim to be a social media guru. How do you differentiate between a scam artist and a sage? How do you separate the snake oil from the substance?

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Calling BS on (Social Media) Gurus Scott Berkun @berkun Scottberkun.com
Hi. Im Scott. Microsoft 94-2003, IE 1.0 to 5.0 (not 6) Now writer and speaker BusinessWeek, Harvard Business, The Economist, Wired, NYT, WSJ, NPR, CNBC Bestsellers: Making things happen, (OReilly 2005) The myths of Innovation, (OReilly, 2007) Confessions of a Public Speaker, (OReilly, 2009) www.scottberkun.com Blog, essays, videos & more
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
Agenda Snake Oil Sales / marketing vs. truth Questions for Gurus and Experts Occam and Social Media An inquiry into hype: by example
SNAKE OIL
We will always have get rick quick schemes
From 72ave.com
Words you should be poked in the eye for saying Fundamental change Transformative Revolutionary Breakthrough Radical Paradigm-shift Game changing
GURU 爐爛 GU - darkness RU - light
The syllable gu means shadows. The syllable ru, he who disperses them, because of the power to disperse darkness the guru is thus named. Advayataraka Upanishad 1418, verse 5
Believe nothing, No matter where you read it, Or who has said it, Not even if I have said it, Unless it agrees with your own reason, And your own common sense. -buddha (This is what a real guru sounds like)
Tools for the wise Whitepaper on Cognitive Bias http://bit.ly/cognitivebias
Sales & Marketing vs. The truth
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
Sales, (viral) marketing, advertising and PR are value indifferent disciplines Few say: I wont let you hire me unless you make this product better
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
The truth is in danger when 1. Folks with PR & Marketing talent 2. Are doing PR and Marketing 3. About their PR & Marketing services
Caveat Emptor Let the buyer beware Caveat Venditor Let the seller beware
Questions for Gurus
Credibility Its harder to ascertain credibility in new fields How long have you been doing this? Why are you more credible than the other guy? Who are your clients? Can I talk to them? What are your examples? Samples? Are the promises you are making realistic?
How do you know? Phrases not to trust: Studies say which studies? Are there equally reputable studies that say the opposite? Experts say which ones? When and where did they say it? The data shows Ashton Kutcher / Gary Vaynerchuck did
Questions for experts Have you done this yourself? How do you know what you know? When have you or your theory been wrong? Why do so many people fail at this? What are you selling? Does anything you say not suggest I should buy? (SM) Why arent you more popular?
Challenges to Social Media claims
CHRONOCENTRISM Wed rather hear how amazing now is, rather than how better it was or will be Its an easy way to make what youre selling sound exciting
Many claims we make about the present, could be made about the rise of the telegraph According to the book, besides news reporting, telegraphy, as the first true global network, message routing, social networks with gossip and even marriages among operators ...instant messaging, cryptography, text coding, abbreviated language slang, network security experts, hackers, wire fraud, mailing lists, spamming, e-commerce, stock exchange (via Wikipedia)
Cited research is decades old
Dunbars number (1992) http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html
Challenges for Social Media Yes, we have better, more popular tools But we have always had social networks - its biological word of mouth, back-channel, authentic media New media does not destroy the old Signal to Noise is always the real problem If your product sucks, not much else matters ask What problem am I trying to solve?
An inquiry into hype: by example
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
Video: Social Media Revolution (Refresh) Erik Qualman, Author of Socialnomics This is a Hobsons choice http://socialnomics.net/2010/05/05/social-media-revolution-2-refresh/
Industrial Revolution Inventions From 1780 to 1899: Electric light Steam power Stethoscope Sewing Machine Indoor Plumbing / Toilet paper Elevators / Skyscrapers Telephone Coca-Cola
This has been true for years
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
U.S. Population (not world) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Age_structure
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.html http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,766584,00.html
62 mil http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.html
ANECDOTAL VS. EMPERICAL
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
Most reach claims are inflated Magazine subscriptions, TV watchers, RSS subs, etc. How many (twitter) followers : Are an individual, living person Are online when you happen to tweet reads the tweet Click on your link Reads what they see when they get there Who RTs or forwards Who buys what you are selling
http://techcrunch.com/2009/10/05/twitter-data-analysis-an-investors-perspective/ http://mashable.com/2010/03/10/twitter-follow-stats/
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
My lame hypothesis: It is easier to get dumb people to click on dumb things
One definition of science Hypothesis - What leads to Y? Research Create experiment w/reduced bias Collect and study data Conclusion We think X leads to Y Publish results so others can try to reproduce
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
Any real expert or guru should be asking other experts and gurus to: Reference their claims Share methods so data can be reproduced Scrutinize the sources they RT / forward / link Bring more light, not darkness
?
Calling BS on Social Media Gurus
In Response to my questions, Dan added more details on his research. Which is super cool. By why arent we asking more experts to do the same before accepting it, linking to it or letting it be called science?
Conclusions The burden is on you (Cognitive Bias) PR about PR has inherent credibility issues Ask experts for clients and samples Let others call you a guru You are responsible for facts you use You are responsible for facts you believe
Photo Credits & Thanks Campfire - http://www.sxc.hu/photo/681449 Thanks: Joe McCarthy, Rayna, Divya, Karl Sakas, Dorian Taylor, Bryan Zug, SMCSeattle Christopher Allen: www.lifewithalacrity.com/2004/03/the_dunbar_numb.html Dunbars actual paper: watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html
QUESTIONS? Scott Berkun info@scottberkun.com scottberkun.com @berkun

More Related Content

Calling BS on Social Media Gurus

  • 1. Calling BS on (Social Media) Gurus Scott Berkun @berkun Scottberkun.com
  • 2. Hi. Im Scott. Microsoft 94-2003, IE 1.0 to 5.0 (not 6) Now writer and speaker BusinessWeek, Harvard Business, The Economist, Wired, NYT, WSJ, NPR, CNBC Bestsellers: Making things happen, (OReilly 2005) The myths of Innovation, (OReilly, 2007) Confessions of a Public Speaker, (OReilly, 2009) www.scottberkun.com Blog, essays, videos & more
  • 4. Agenda Snake Oil Sales / marketing vs. truth Questions for Gurus and Experts Occam and Social Media An inquiry into hype: by example
  • 6. We will always have get rick quick schemes
  • 8. Words you should be poked in the eye for saying Fundamental change Transformative Revolutionary Breakthrough Radical Paradigm-shift Game changing
  • 9. GURU 爐爛 GU - darkness RU - light
  • 10. The syllable gu means shadows. The syllable ru, he who disperses them, because of the power to disperse darkness the guru is thus named. Advayataraka Upanishad 1418, verse 5
  • 11. Believe nothing, No matter where you read it, Or who has said it, Not even if I have said it, Unless it agrees with your own reason, And your own common sense. -buddha (This is what a real guru sounds like)
  • 12. Tools for the wise Whitepaper on Cognitive Bias http://bit.ly/cognitivebias
  • 13. Sales & Marketing vs. The truth
  • 15. Sales, (viral) marketing, advertising and PR are value indifferent disciplines Few say: I wont let you hire me unless you make this product better
  • 17. The truth is in danger when 1. Folks with PR & Marketing talent 2. Are doing PR and Marketing 3. About their PR & Marketing services
  • 18. Caveat Emptor Let the buyer beware Caveat Venditor Let the seller beware
  • 20. Credibility Its harder to ascertain credibility in new fields How long have you been doing this? Why are you more credible than the other guy? Who are your clients? Can I talk to them? What are your examples? Samples? Are the promises you are making realistic?
  • 21. How do you know? Phrases not to trust: Studies say which studies? Are there equally reputable studies that say the opposite? Experts say which ones? When and where did they say it? The data shows Ashton Kutcher / Gary Vaynerchuck did
  • 22. Questions for experts Have you done this yourself? How do you know what you know? When have you or your theory been wrong? Why do so many people fail at this? What are you selling? Does anything you say not suggest I should buy? (SM) Why arent you more popular?
  • 24. CHRONOCENTRISM Wed rather hear how amazing now is, rather than how better it was or will be Its an easy way to make what youre selling sound exciting
  • 25. Many claims we make about the present, could be made about the rise of the telegraph According to the book, besides news reporting, telegraphy, as the first true global network, message routing, social networks with gossip and even marriages among operators ...instant messaging, cryptography, text coding, abbreviated language slang, network security experts, hackers, wire fraud, mailing lists, spamming, e-commerce, stock exchange (via Wikipedia)
  • 26. Cited research is decades old
  • 27. Dunbars number (1992) http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html
  • 28. Challenges for Social Media Yes, we have better, more popular tools But we have always had social networks - its biological word of mouth, back-channel, authentic media New media does not destroy the old Signal to Noise is always the real problem If your product sucks, not much else matters ask What problem am I trying to solve?
  • 29. An inquiry into hype: by example
  • 31. Video: Social Media Revolution (Refresh) Erik Qualman, Author of Socialnomics This is a Hobsons choice http://socialnomics.net/2010/05/05/social-media-revolution-2-refresh/
  • 32. Industrial Revolution Inventions From 1780 to 1899: Electric light Steam power Stethoscope Sewing Machine Indoor Plumbing / Toilet paper Elevators / Skyscrapers Telephone Coca-Cola
  • 33. This has been true for years
  • 35. U.S. Population (not world) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Age_structure
  • 39. ANECDOTAL VS. EMPERICAL
  • 42. Most reach claims are inflated Magazine subscriptions, TV watchers, RSS subs, etc. How many (twitter) followers : Are an individual, living person Are online when you happen to tweet reads the tweet Click on your link Reads what they see when they get there Who RTs or forwards Who buys what you are selling
  • 45. My lame hypothesis: It is easier to get dumb people to click on dumb things
  • 46. One definition of science Hypothesis - What leads to Y? Research Create experiment w/reduced bias Collect and study data Conclusion We think X leads to Y Publish results so others can try to reproduce
  • 48. Any real expert or guru should be asking other experts and gurus to: Reference their claims Share methods so data can be reproduced Scrutinize the sources they RT / forward / link Bring more light, not darkness
  • 49. ?
  • 51. In Response to my questions, Dan added more details on his research. Which is super cool. By why arent we asking more experts to do the same before accepting it, linking to it or letting it be called science?
  • 52. Conclusions The burden is on you (Cognitive Bias) PR about PR has inherent credibility issues Ask experts for clients and samples Let others call you a guru You are responsible for facts you use You are responsible for facts you believe
  • 53. Photo Credits & Thanks Campfire - http://www.sxc.hu/photo/681449 Thanks: Joe McCarthy, Rayna, Divya, Karl Sakas, Dorian Taylor, Bryan Zug, SMCSeattle Christopher Allen: www.lifewithalacrity.com/2004/03/the_dunbar_numb.html Dunbars actual paper: watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html
  • 54. QUESTIONS? Scott Berkun info@scottberkun.com scottberkun.com @berkun