HRF Centre Hunter Economic Update May 2017
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The Hunter Economic Indicators report for March 2017 highlights a moderately growing economy with softening household income and higher unemployment. While there are signs of a resilient real estate market and positive export trends, caution is warranted due to declining business confidence and a stagnant labor market. Innovation among businesses is at its best, but risks remain in the regional economy outlook.
HRF Centre Hunter Economic Update May 2017
- 1. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Hunter Economic Indicators March Quarter 2017 Dr Anthea Bill, Lead Economist Hunter Research Foundation Centre Presentation – Friday 26 May 2017
- 2. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Presentation outline ? International return to normal ? National mixed results ? Hunter economy optimism continues but softening ? Innovation results
- 3. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc World economy: Back to normal? International GDP Growth Actuals and Forecasts
- 4. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc 0 2 4 6 1999-00 2003-04 2007-08 2011-12 2015-16 2019-20 Real GDP Wages % Predicted increase in revenue Source: Treasury Budget Papers, ABS 5206.0 % Annual Change, GDP and Wages Federal Budget Forward Estimates
- 5. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Sign of soft labour market? Source: ABS Labour Force Survey. 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Feb 94 Feb 97 Feb 00 Feb 03 Feb 06 Feb 09 Feb 12 Feb 15 Under-utilisation Rate (trend), Percent%
- 6. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Summary macro trends ? Moderate growth: signs that household disposable income has softened further ? Unemployment rate slightly higher but part-time job growth ? Indications of non-mining recovery soft, but export story a positive ? Resurgence in property prices continues in Sydney and Melbourne ? Global growth returns to average, however uncertainty persists
- 7. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Hunter Economy
- 8. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Part-time job losses Employment (3-month moving average), Hunter and NSW
- 9. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Unemployment back in line with NSW Unemployment Rates (3-month moving average), Hunter and NSW
- 10. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Residential market, LGA level variation Median House Prices
- 11. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Approvals new houses, plateaued Hunter Annualised New Housing Approvals (number and value) 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-10 Mar-13 Mar-16 Millions Series1 Series2 Number Approvals Value Approvals ($) No’s Source: ABS, Building Approvals
- 12. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Pipeline of construction - robust 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jun Dec Jun Dec Millions Non-residential Residential 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162011 Source: ABS, Building Approvals
- 13. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc NSW and national, end of construction boom? 700 1,200 1,700 2,200 2,700 3,200 5,000 8,000 11,000 14,000 17,000 20,000 23,000 Australia Housing Approvals (3 month moving average) NSW Housing Approvals (3 Month Moving Average) Source: ABS, Building Approvals
- 14. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc HRF Centre’s unique research program for the Hunter economy is based on Hunter Pulse Surveys Last quarter we talked to 300 businesses and 300 consumers across the Hunter and this is what they told us.
- 15. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Consumer sentiment, holding steady Consumer Spending and Confidence
- 16. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Business confidence, above average Business Confidence and Employment
- 17. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Hunter innovation, best result yet 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 % Hunter Businesses Introducing New or Improved Products or Services Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Survey
- 18. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc New offerings stay close to home.. % Innovating Firms
- 19. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Innovating firms, smart futures 18% 45% 35% 7% 30% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Exporting Overseas Improved Profitability (last 3 months) Hiring Next 12 Months Innovators Non-Innovators Source: HRF Centre Hunter Pulse Business Survey
- 20. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Regional outlook … optimistic 12-month Economic and Financial Outlook
- 21. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Summary: Optimism continues but softening in March – Business and household confidence in regional economy above long-term averages – Business confidence softened but remains above average – Growing innovation and new-to-industry offerings Softening of trend and downside risks... – Softness in labour market – Household LT personal finances steady – House price growth continues, but has cooled in some areas – Housing approvals plateaued
- 22. Hunter Research Foundation Centre www.newcastle.edu.au/hrfc Thank you Our latest Hunter Region Economic Indicators publication is available as you leave today