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INDIA
 A perspective on Growth

          Harpal Singh
            8th March 2012
                 Miami
A TRANSFORMING ELEPHANT
A MICROCOSM OF THE WORLD




            And OTHER S
BREATHTAKING DIVERSITY



                              People
                   Cuisine



                             Culture
Religion &
Festivals
PREVAILING WINDS  WARM & INSPIRING
   TOTAL GDP (PPP, $ TRILLION)
   GDP PER CAPITA (PPP, $)
   CAGR 8.9%
                                      4.46                     Hope &
                                              3,616
   CAGR 7.4%
                    4.11                                       Positivity
                             3,419
                                                      Growth
  3.76


            3,134

 FY2009             FY2010           FY2011




                                                                            Innovation
                                                        Aspirations
                                              Youth
PREVAILING WINDS  COLD & DISPARING
                                   Coalition Politics



             Parliamentary
             Lethargy
Corruption
                                  Health & Malnutrition




                    Bureaucracy
A (potentially) BREWING STORM ?



     Human Rights - Ignored
Aspirations - Unsustainable
THE ONSET OF GOOD WEATHER
INDIA
 Future
          3 scenarios
               1. Bolly-World
               2. Atakta (Stuck) India
               3. Pahale (First) India
SCENARIO 1


                  BOLLYWORLD
    INDIA CHARACTERIZED BY EXCLUSION
                                            Integration with the
                                            world

   BIRDS SCRAMBLING   WOLVES PROWLING




    Exclusive                                              Inclusive
    growth and                                             growth and
    development                                            development



                                        Isolation from
                                        the world
                                                                     - 10 -
SCENARIO 2


                  ATAKTA BHARAT
                         INDIA STUCK
                                          Integration with the
                                          world
   Exclusive growth
   and development

                                                     Inclusive growth
              BUFFALOES WALLOWING                    and development




                                    Isolation from
                                    the world

                                                                        - 11 -
SCENARIO 3


                  PAHALE BHARAT
                              INDIA FIRST
               Integration                   FIREFLIES
               with the                      ARISING
               world




 Exclusive                                               Inclusive
 growth and                                              growth and
 development                                             development


                         Isolation for the
                         world
                                                                       - 12 -
CHOICE IMPLICATIONS
                       Integration with
                       the world

                   I                  II



Exclusive growth
and development
                                                      Inclusive growth and
             IV                                 III   development




                                   Isolation from
                                   the world
                                                                         - 13 -
CHOICE IMPLICATIONS


                                                                    2012




Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India)


                                                                                               - 14 -
CHOICE IMPLICATIONS



                                                                     In the balance of
                                                                   poverty- 120 million
                                                                               citizens




Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India)


                                                                                               - 15 -
THE BIG QUESTION
CAN (WILL) INDIA TRANSFORM 1.5 BILLION LIVES ?
TO MAKE IT HAPPEN, INDIA MUST

 Reform

 Build Infrastructure

 Educate its young population

 Meet Health needs

 Provide Livelihoods

 ENSURE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH !
INDIA
 Reasons to be POSITIVE
              - Inherent Resilience
RESILIENCE THROUGH ENTREPRENEURSHIP



Confident, yet aware
of Situational Reality




                          Flexible & ready to
                          change
RESILIENCE THROUGH INNOVATION
RESILIENCE THROUGH CONSERVATION
RESILIENCE THROUGH VALUE MAXIMIZATION
RESILIENCE THROUGH INSTITUTIONS
Democracy
Law & Order
Free Press
Civil Society
Hence, RESILIENT THROUGH CRISIS
India successfully weathered the Financial Crisis !




Over the past decade, Returns for Investors in
India - 400% - 500%
LSE  100%
NASDAQ/ DJX  10% - 20%
RESILIENT THROUGH STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
 GDP Composition                                                                              Labour Force

                                                                                Services
                     Agriculture             GDP/ Workforce = $9,100
                                                                                  34%
                        18%                  34% of services workforce                       Agriculture
     Services                 Industry        driving 56% of the economy                         52%
       56%                      26%          GDP/ Service Sector              Industry
                                              Workforce = $26,800                14%




   TOTAL GDP (PPP, $ TRILLION)     GDP PER CAPITA (PPP, $)
   CAGR 8.9%                       CAGR 7.4%


                                               4.46
                                              3,616
                           4.11
                               3,419
     3.76

                3,134
                                                                    Declining Rate of Population
                                                                    growth, Rising per Capita Incomes
   FY2009                 FY2010              FY2011
     I have travelled across the
    length and breadth of India
    and I have not seen one
    person who is a beggar, who is
    a thief. Such wealth I have
    seen in this country, such high
    moral values, people of such
    caliber. 

                      - Lord Macaulay
      Address to the British Parliament
                    2nd February, 1835
FUNDAMENTALS STRONG FOR LONG TERM
     INVESTMENTS & GROWTH
                                        FIREFLIES ARISING
           Integration with
           the world




                                                            Inclusive growth
Exclusive growth                                            and development
and development
                        Isolation for
                        the world
INDIA
      GROWING




AND READY FOR THE WORLD !!
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India @miami 05.03.2012 (without comments)

  • 1. INDIA A perspective on Growth Harpal Singh 8th March 2012 Miami
  • 3. A MICROCOSM OF THE WORLD And OTHER S
  • 4. BREATHTAKING DIVERSITY People Cuisine Culture Religion & Festivals
  • 5. PREVAILING WINDS WARM & INSPIRING TOTAL GDP (PPP, $ TRILLION) GDP PER CAPITA (PPP, $) CAGR 8.9% 4.46 Hope & 3,616 CAGR 7.4% 4.11 Positivity 3,419 Growth 3.76 3,134 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 Innovation Aspirations Youth
  • 6. PREVAILING WINDS COLD & DISPARING Coalition Politics Parliamentary Lethargy Corruption Health & Malnutrition Bureaucracy
  • 7. A (potentially) BREWING STORM ? Human Rights - Ignored Aspirations - Unsustainable
  • 8. THE ONSET OF GOOD WEATHER
  • 9. INDIA Future 3 scenarios 1. Bolly-World 2. Atakta (Stuck) India 3. Pahale (First) India
  • 10. SCENARIO 1 BOLLYWORLD INDIA CHARACTERIZED BY EXCLUSION Integration with the world BIRDS SCRAMBLING WOLVES PROWLING Exclusive Inclusive growth and growth and development development Isolation from the world - 10 -
  • 11. SCENARIO 2 ATAKTA BHARAT INDIA STUCK Integration with the world Exclusive growth and development Inclusive growth BUFFALOES WALLOWING and development Isolation from the world - 11 -
  • 12. SCENARIO 3 PAHALE BHARAT INDIA FIRST Integration FIREFLIES with the ARISING world Exclusive Inclusive growth and growth and development development Isolation for the world - 12 -
  • 13. CHOICE IMPLICATIONS Integration with the world I II Exclusive growth and development Inclusive growth and IV III development Isolation from the world - 13 -
  • 14. CHOICE IMPLICATIONS 2012 Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India) - 14 -
  • 15. CHOICE IMPLICATIONS In the balance of poverty- 120 million citizens Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India) - 15 -
  • 16. THE BIG QUESTION CAN (WILL) INDIA TRANSFORM 1.5 BILLION LIVES ?
  • 17. TO MAKE IT HAPPEN, INDIA MUST Reform Build Infrastructure Educate its young population Meet Health needs Provide Livelihoods ENSURE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH !
  • 18. INDIA Reasons to be POSITIVE - Inherent Resilience
  • 19. RESILIENCE THROUGH ENTREPRENEURSHIP Confident, yet aware of Situational Reality Flexible & ready to change
  • 22. RESILIENCE THROUGH VALUE MAXIMIZATION
  • 23. RESILIENCE THROUGH INSTITUTIONS Democracy Law & Order Free Press Civil Society
  • 24. Hence, RESILIENT THROUGH CRISIS India successfully weathered the Financial Crisis ! Over the past decade, Returns for Investors in India - 400% - 500% LSE 100% NASDAQ/ DJX 10% - 20%
  • 25. RESILIENT THROUGH STRONG FUNDAMENTALS GDP Composition Labour Force Services Agriculture GDP/ Workforce = $9,100 34% 18% 34% of services workforce Agriculture Services Industry driving 56% of the economy 52% 56% 26% GDP/ Service Sector Industry Workforce = $26,800 14% TOTAL GDP (PPP, $ TRILLION) GDP PER CAPITA (PPP, $) CAGR 8.9% CAGR 7.4% 4.46 3,616 4.11 3,419 3.76 3,134 Declining Rate of Population growth, Rising per Capita Incomes FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
  • 26. I have travelled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such caliber. - Lord Macaulay Address to the British Parliament 2nd February, 1835
  • 27. FUNDAMENTALS STRONG FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS & GROWTH FIREFLIES ARISING Integration with the world Inclusive growth Exclusive growth and development and development Isolation for the world
  • 28. INDIA GROWING AND READY FOR THE WORLD !!