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India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)

The Takshashila Institution
The Takshashila Institution

For millennia, the Himalayas constituted a strategic frontier between two dissimilar civilisations. In this presentation, Nitin Pai argues that nuclear weapons are the new Himalayas and the India-China contest has gone beyond the mountains, to the Oceans and beyond. Presented at Bangalore International Centre in June 2010.

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The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala Nitin Pai
India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)
Xuanzang in India 629-645 High Tide
649 AD The Year China first Invaded India
648 : Wang Xuances embassy to India 1200 Tibetan warriors 7000 Nepali horsemen 3000 Indians killed 10,000 thrown into river Thereupon, India was overawed.Standard Tang History
The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala
Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
Big differences at a fundamental level Why might this have happened?
World: Political World: Political Wang framework Ba framework The Middle Kingdom Mindset
From the earliest times, India lacked interest in the balance of power outside its own national frontiers. While China was continuously watchful of developments across its land frontiers and had developed a very ef鍖cient system of diplomatic relationship on a continental basis, the Indian idea of diplomacy was con鍖ned to states within the geographical limits of India K M Panikkar
Harshas death Succession struggle Buddhists v Brahmins Politics in Northern India 645 AD
Songsten Gyampo & Tang Taizong enter into an alliance (641-645)
648 : Wang Xuances embassy to India 1200 Tibetan warriors 7000 Nepali horsemen 3000 Indians killed 10,000 thrown into river This was a rare event
The Himalayan Barrier
20th century breaches the barrier Large scale troop movements by land and air become feasible
1940s 1970s Old barrier comes down New barrier goes up 1960s Clash The 20th Century
War is the failure of strategy Conventional deterrence Nuclear deterrence Risks of a India-US alliance Risks to its economic growth Kautilyan dynamic is still at work, but China is unlikely to want a border war Corollary?
The game is now globalThe New Raja Mandala
Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
Dependence on fuel imports Fuel supply cartelised (OPEC, NSG etc) So, diversi鍖cation, diversi鍖cation, diversi鍖cation Energy conundrum Net Oil Import Dependence World Energy Outlook 2009
67% 83% 100% 1981-82 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 Exports by Sea Imports by Sea Seaborne trade as % of total trade Most of Indias trade is seaborne Data: Indicus Analytics Markets & Maritime go together
Wishfulness Strategy Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline
Energy Security: Infrastructure & Markets
Singapore & Indonesia will be adversely affected India will sit astride the new route but increased presence of foreign navies An old idea: Chinas turn
Chinas trade from Europe, Africa and Middle East could bypass India Possibility that it will be available for shipping for several weeks a year Improves Chinas access, but under Russian in鍖uence The Northern Sea Route
Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
Absence Projection Sep 2007 Oct 2008
Absence Projection Balance of Power in SE Asia Balance of Power in NE Africa Post-tsunami credibility diluted India is a credible player Chinas bandwagon strengthens China wants to get in
Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime arms & trade human security Policy implications Outline
Human security Unconventional transnational security threats
Plausible scenarios Natural Disasters Pandemics Mass political violence/genocide Migration dynamics & global interests introduce political imperative to intervene
interposes the impact mechanisms of climate change against the ongoing con鍖ict dynamics in South Asia. Con鍖ict system/ Impact mechanism Glacial recession Rising sea levels Extreme weather Net assessment Jammu & Kashmir High - Medium Risk of war, motivated in part by the quest for water resources India-China border High - Medium Risk of natural disasters in India, worsening India-China relations Bangladesh !ethnic invasion" High High High Risk of mass migration into India Pakistani separatism High Medium Medium Risk of existential crisis in Pakistan, and of ethnic con鍖ict Sri Lankan civil war - High Medium Risk of mass migration, and of ethnic con鍖ict Nepal civil war High - High Risk of natural disasters and mass migration into India due to social unrest Table 1: Impact of climate change on ongoing con鍖icts in the Indian subcontinent Climate change can exacerbate con鍖ict systems
What it means for military preparedness? Expeditionary capability Strategic partnerships Military co-operation capital Interoperability India must remain a credible provider of human security across its shores
Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
New spaces Dealing with the asymmetric
Chinas asymmetric strategy Why PLAN has a submarine focused strategy? Why did China shoot down one of its own satellites? Google pulls out of China Why is China selling nuclear reactors to Pakistan? These capabilities can be used to target India too
Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
Broadly... The New Himalayas must be high Relative power dynamic suggests India must act as a geopolitical swing power India China US 2004 2009 balance
Power Projection Pax Indica in the immediate maritime neighbourhood Deep partnerships in the extended maritime domain (footholds, forward bases, supply depots)
Economic security Promotion of unhindered access to international markets: for fuel, goods & services An open but cautious approach towards IT imports from China is warranted: regulators need help from IT industry
Military capacity Heavy lift over long distances Amphibious capacity /CIMPCOR Policy review on overseas military deployments
A foreign policy orchestra Policy coordination: External Affairs + Finance + Commerce + Defence Ministry - eg Can India use G-20 to its advantage? Role of civil society - not just to in鍖uence govt, but to act on its own - eg Why are we unconcerned about Balochistan? Lastly, Why isnt there a Channel !ndia?
Think about it Thank you

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India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)

  • 1. The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala Nitin Pai
  • 3. Xuanzang in India 629-645 High Tide
  • 4. 649 AD The Year China first Invaded India
  • 5. 648 : Wang Xuances embassy to India 1200 Tibetan warriors 7000 Nepali horsemen 3000 Indians killed 10,000 thrown into river Thereupon, India was overawed.Standard Tang History
  • 6. The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala
  • 7. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
  • 8. Big differences at a fundamental level Why might this have happened?
  • 9. World: Political World: Political Wang framework Ba framework The Middle Kingdom Mindset
  • 10. From the earliest times, India lacked interest in the balance of power outside its own national frontiers. While China was continuously watchful of developments across its land frontiers and had developed a very ef鍖cient system of diplomatic relationship on a continental basis, the Indian idea of diplomacy was con鍖ned to states within the geographical limits of India K M Panikkar
  • 11. Harshas death Succession struggle Buddhists v Brahmins Politics in Northern India 645 AD
  • 12. Songsten Gyampo & Tang Taizong enter into an alliance (641-645)
  • 13. 648 : Wang Xuances embassy to India 1200 Tibetan warriors 7000 Nepali horsemen 3000 Indians killed 10,000 thrown into river This was a rare event
  • 15. 20th century breaches the barrier Large scale troop movements by land and air become feasible
  • 16. 1940s 1970s Old barrier comes down New barrier goes up 1960s Clash The 20th Century
  • 17. War is the failure of strategy Conventional deterrence Nuclear deterrence Risks of a India-US alliance Risks to its economic growth Kautilyan dynamic is still at work, but China is unlikely to want a border war Corollary?
  • 18. The game is now globalThe New Raja Mandala
  • 19. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
  • 20. Dependence on fuel imports Fuel supply cartelised (OPEC, NSG etc) So, diversi鍖cation, diversi鍖cation, diversi鍖cation Energy conundrum Net Oil Import Dependence World Energy Outlook 2009
  • 21. 67% 83% 100% 1981-82 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 Exports by Sea Imports by Sea Seaborne trade as % of total trade Most of Indias trade is seaborne Data: Indicus Analytics Markets & Maritime go together
  • 24. Singapore & Indonesia will be adversely affected India will sit astride the new route but increased presence of foreign navies An old idea: Chinas turn
  • 25. Chinas trade from Europe, Africa and Middle East could bypass India Possibility that it will be available for shipping for several weeks a year Improves Chinas access, but under Russian in鍖uence The Northern Sea Route
  • 26. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
  • 28. Absence Projection Balance of Power in SE Asia Balance of Power in NE Africa Post-tsunami credibility diluted India is a credible player Chinas bandwagon strengthens China wants to get in
  • 29. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime arms & trade human security Policy implications Outline
  • 30. Human security Unconventional transnational security threats
  • 31. Plausible scenarios Natural Disasters Pandemics Mass political violence/genocide Migration dynamics & global interests introduce political imperative to intervene
  • 32. interposes the impact mechanisms of climate change against the ongoing con鍖ict dynamics in South Asia. Con鍖ict system/ Impact mechanism Glacial recession Rising sea levels Extreme weather Net assessment Jammu & Kashmir High - Medium Risk of war, motivated in part by the quest for water resources India-China border High - Medium Risk of natural disasters in India, worsening India-China relations Bangladesh !ethnic invasion" High High High Risk of mass migration into India Pakistani separatism High Medium Medium Risk of existential crisis in Pakistan, and of ethnic con鍖ict Sri Lankan civil war - High Medium Risk of mass migration, and of ethnic con鍖ict Nepal civil war High - High Risk of natural disasters and mass migration into India due to social unrest Table 1: Impact of climate change on ongoing con鍖icts in the Indian subcontinent Climate change can exacerbate con鍖ict systems
  • 33. What it means for military preparedness? Expeditionary capability Strategic partnerships Military co-operation capital Interoperability India must remain a credible provider of human security across its shores
  • 34. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
  • 35. New spaces Dealing with the asymmetric
  • 36. Chinas asymmetric strategy Why PLAN has a submarine focused strategy? Why did China shoot down one of its own satellites? Google pulls out of China Why is China selling nuclear reactors to Pakistan? These capabilities can be used to target India too
  • 37. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
  • 38. Broadly... The New Himalayas must be high Relative power dynamic suggests India must act as a geopolitical swing power India China US 2004 2009 balance
  • 39. Power Projection Pax Indica in the immediate maritime neighbourhood Deep partnerships in the extended maritime domain (footholds, forward bases, supply depots)
  • 40. Economic security Promotion of unhindered access to international markets: for fuel, goods & services An open but cautious approach towards IT imports from China is warranted: regulators need help from IT industry
  • 41. Military capacity Heavy lift over long distances Amphibious capacity /CIMPCOR Policy review on overseas military deployments
  • 42. A foreign policy orchestra Policy coordination: External Affairs + Finance + Commerce + Defence Ministry - eg Can India use G-20 to its advantage? Role of civil society - not just to in鍖uence govt, but to act on its own - eg Why are we unconcerned about Balochistan? Lastly, Why isnt there a Channel !ndia?
  • 43. Think about it Thank you