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Ipm12cressmanfaolocust 120402071009-phpapp02

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The Commission for Controlling the Desert locust in the Central Region
The Commission for Controlling the Desert locust in the Central Region

An outbreak of Desert Locust developed in February in southwest Libya and adjacent areas of southeast Algeria due to good rains in October 2011. Monitoring and control operations were limited by insecurity in both countries. Additional breeding is expected during March and April which could cause locust numbers to increase dramatically and form hopper bands, requiring careful monitoring and control operations to prevent a further escalation of the situation.

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Desert Locust vs. IPM
Recession area 16 million km2 Invasion area 20% Earth’s land
countries with swarms non plague plague 50 40 30 20 10 0 1860 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10 irregular recessions and plagues (1860 - 2011)
2003-05 regional plague 23 countries $400 million 130k km2 sprayed
Combination of best possible practices Strategic 13 0.4 management not eradication 2003-05 2006-12 preventive before curative millions ha sprayed Operational 24/7 monitoring & forecasting GIS & remote sensing (find more infestations faster) targeted & timely control use biopesticides & barrier treatments
front-line secondary invasion warning level: CAUTION DESERT LOCUST BULLETIN FAO Emergency Centre for Locust Operations No. 401 General Situation during February 2012 (2 Mar 2012) Forecast until mid-April 2012 A Desert Locust outbreak developed in early near Djanet. National ground teams treated 2,365 February in southwest Libya. Some adults moved ha in Libya and 230 ha in Algeria during February. into adjacent areas of southeast Algeria where Good rains fell over a large area at mid-month and local infestations were already present. Survey high-density adult groups were seen copulating. and control operations were limited due to Consequently, a second generation of breeding will insecurity in both areas. Good rains that fell in occur with hatching and hopper band formation during both countries will allow a second generation of March and April. This is expected to cause locust breeding to occur during March and April. This numbers to increase dramatically in Libya and, to a is expected to cause locust numbers to increase lesser extent, in Algeria. The situation is not entirely dramatically and hopper bands to form. Scattered adults arriving from northern Niger may augment on both sides of the border that hamper survey and local populations. All efforts are required to control operations. In northern Niger, scattered adults monitor the situation carefully and undertake the that are likely to be present in the Air Mountains may necessary control operations to avoid a further move into southern Algeria during March. No locusts escalation in the situation. Elsewhere, there was were reported elsewhere in the region. very little locust activity in the winter breeding data collection • analysis • inform areas along both sides of the Red Sea due to Central Region. Vegetation continued to dry out poor rainfall and dry conditions. In South-West in the winter breeding areas along both sides of www.fao.org/ag/locusts Asia, small-scale breeding is expected to occur the Red Sea due to a lack of rain during February. during the forecast period in western Pakistan and Nevertheless, breeding conditions were favourable on southeastern Iran but locust numbers will remain the southern coast in Sudan where scattered adults below threatening levels. were present and laying eggs, and on the central Red Sea coast in Yemen. Isolated adults were present in Western Region. An outbreak developed in early northern Oman. No locusts were seen during surveys February in southwest Libya near the Algerian in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. During the forecast border as a result of good rains in October 2011 and period, limited hatching will occur in Sudan but no
0.25 degree daily, decadal, monthly daily averages of 3-hourly CMORPH (NOAA/CPC) source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 mm Rainfall estimates
rainfall & temperature forecasts 6 months in advance, updated monthly ECMWF anomaly 1981-2012 source: Prescient Weather (PA, USA) 20 50 100 180 300% normal rainfall Seasonal predictions
250m every 16 days NDVI (green vegetation) source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA) MODIS imagery
MODIS imagery (NW Mauritania, Oct 2010)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 onset of green vegetation (weeks)
rainfall estimate greenness map locust survey & control data reference (Landsat & TPC)
Key to success use appropriate products available on time beware of RS limitations open source / module architecture GIS provide sufficient training & support Keith Cressman Senior Locust Forecasting Officer UN FAO, Rome keith.cressman@fao.org www.fao.org/ag/locusts

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Ipm12cressmanfaolocust 120402071009-phpapp02

  • 2. Recession area 16 million km2 Invasion area 20% Earth’s land
  • 3. countries with swarms non plague plague 50 40 30 20 10 0 1860 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10 irregular recessions and plagues (1860 - 2011)
  • 4. 2003-05 regional plague 23 countries $400 million 130k km2 sprayed
  • 5. Combination of best possible practices Strategic 13 0.4 management not eradication 2003-05 2006-12 preventive before curative millions ha sprayed Operational 24/7 monitoring & forecasting GIS & remote sensing (find more infestations faster) targeted & timely control use biopesticides & barrier treatments
  • 6. front-line secondary invasion warning level: CAUTION DESERT LOCUST BULLETIN FAO Emergency Centre for Locust Operations No. 401 General Situation during February 2012 (2 Mar 2012) Forecast until mid-April 2012 A Desert Locust outbreak developed in early near Djanet. National ground teams treated 2,365 February in southwest Libya. Some adults moved ha in Libya and 230 ha in Algeria during February. into adjacent areas of southeast Algeria where Good rains fell over a large area at mid-month and local infestations were already present. Survey high-density adult groups were seen copulating. and control operations were limited due to Consequently, a second generation of breeding will insecurity in both areas. Good rains that fell in occur with hatching and hopper band formation during both countries will allow a second generation of March and April. This is expected to cause locust breeding to occur during March and April. This numbers to increase dramatically in Libya and, to a is expected to cause locust numbers to increase lesser extent, in Algeria. The situation is not entirely dramatically and hopper bands to form. Scattered adults arriving from northern Niger may augment on both sides of the border that hamper survey and local populations. All efforts are required to control operations. In northern Niger, scattered adults monitor the situation carefully and undertake the that are likely to be present in the Air Mountains may necessary control operations to avoid a further move into southern Algeria during March. No locusts escalation in the situation. Elsewhere, there was were reported elsewhere in the region. very little locust activity in the winter breeding data collection • analysis • inform areas along both sides of the Red Sea due to Central Region. Vegetation continued to dry out poor rainfall and dry conditions. In South-West in the winter breeding areas along both sides of www.fao.org/ag/locusts Asia, small-scale breeding is expected to occur the Red Sea due to a lack of rain during February. during the forecast period in western Pakistan and Nevertheless, breeding conditions were favourable on southeastern Iran but locust numbers will remain the southern coast in Sudan where scattered adults below threatening levels. were present and laying eggs, and on the central Red Sea coast in Yemen. Isolated adults were present in Western Region. An outbreak developed in early northern Oman. No locusts were seen during surveys February in southwest Libya near the Algerian in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. During the forecast border as a result of good rains in October 2011 and period, limited hatching will occur in Sudan but no
  • 7. 0.25 degree daily, decadal, monthly daily averages of 3-hourly CMORPH (NOAA/CPC) source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 mm Rainfall estimates
  • 8. rainfall & temperature forecasts 6 months in advance, updated monthly ECMWF anomaly 1981-2012 source: Prescient Weather (PA, USA) 20 50 100 180 300% normal rainfall Seasonal predictions
  • 9. 250m every 16 days NDVI (green vegetation) source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA) MODIS imagery
  • 10. MODIS imagery (NW Mauritania, Oct 2010)
  • 11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 onset of green vegetation (weeks)
  • 12. rainfall estimate greenness map locust survey & control data reference (Landsat & TPC)
  • 13. Key to success use appropriate products available on time beware of RS limitations open source / module architecture GIS provide sufficient training & support Keith Cressman Senior Locust Forecasting Officer UN FAO, Rome keith.cressman@fao.org www.fao.org/ag/locusts