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Social Media in the 2013 Italian
Election
Luca Rossi1, Fabio Giglietto2, Mario Orefice2, Giovanni Boccia Artieri2
dataset

Data source: www.blogmeter.eu
Data construction
Every electoral system frame the individual
political opinion within a specific structure e.g.
parties, coalitions, etc.
Social Media

Italian Political system

Conversation based on an
individual level (Politicians)

Parties and coalitions are the
electoral unit.

@silvioberlusconi
@beppegrillo

CDX

@pbersani

IBC

@angealfano

M5S
IBC
Centrodestra
ARANCIONI
SCMONTI

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

-0
1

M5S

702

502

302

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

13

13

13

13

13

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

-2
0

102

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

801

601

401

201

Polls trend/coalition

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
12

3-

01
1- 3
20
51
1- 3
2
7- 01
1- 3
2
9- 01
1- 3
11 20
- 1 13
1/ 20
13 13
/
1/ 20
15 13
/
1/ 20
17 13
/
1/ 20
19 13
/
1/ 20
21 13
/
1/ 20
23 13
/
1/ 20
25 13
/
1/ 20
27 13
/
1/ 20
29 13
/
1/ 20
31 13
/2
2- 01
2- 3
2
4- 01
2- 3
2
6- 01
2- 3
2
8- 01
2- 3
10 20
- 2 13
12 20
-2 13
2/ 20
14 13
/
2/ 20
16 13
/
2/ 20
18 13
/
2/ 20
20 13
/
2/ 20
22 13
/
2/ 20
24 13
/2
01
3

1-

1120
1
31- 3
2
5- 013
12
7- 013
12
9- 013
111 201
3
-1
-2
0
1/
13 13
/
1/ 201
15
3
/
1/ 201
17
3
/
1/ 201
19
3
/
1/ 201
21
3
/2
0
1/
23 13
/
1/ 201
25
3
/
1/ 201
27
3
/
1/ 201
29
3
/2
0
1/
31 13
/2
01
22- 3
20
1
42- 3
20
1
62- 3
20
1
82- 3
20
10
13
-2
12 201
3
-2
2/ 201
14
3
/
2/ 201
16
3
/
2/ 201
18
3
/2
01
2/
20
3
/
2/ 201
22
3
/
2/ 201
24
3
/2
01
3

Twitter mentions trend

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000
5000

0

CENTRODESTRA

CENTRODESTRA

ARANCIONI

ARANCIONI

IBC

IBC

M5S

M5S

FD

FD

SCMONTI

People Talking About on Facebook

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

SCMONTI
Errors FB/TW/Polls

Single day of Data, Feb. 7th 2013
Evolution of the mean average error
Political surveys and Facebook PTA
Political surveys and Twitter Mentions
Media presence: is there a significant
correlation between the presence on the
(online) media and the electoral results.
Mentions trend/coalition

-B a UnoMattina
-B a Radio2 annuncia lettera per
restituzione IMU
-Rinvio processo Ruby per legittimo imp.
-B su Sanremo rosso

-Bersani ad Agor
-Bersani su PD/MPS
-presentazione della squadra del csx
Berlusconi a ServizioPubblico
Berlusconi su Mussolini
e leggi razziali

80,00%
-Patto Monti/Bersani anti-Berlusconi
-Videomessaggio di Monti su Fb
-Monti a Skytg24 no a unioni gay

70,00%
-Monti a OttoeMezzo
e UnoMattina
-Monti svela il logo
di Scelta Civica

60,00%

-Puppato ad Agor
-Renzi/Bersani a Firenze
-Scontro Bersani/Grillo
-Scontro Bersani/Maroni

-Monti apre campagna.
riforme radicali
via gli incapaci
voto ad erasmus

50,00%

-IBC in piazza a Milano
-Scontro Bersani/Grillo
su Casa Pound e reddito citt.
-Bersani smacchiamo il giaguaro

-Tsunamitour a Genova e Savona
-Berl su Grillo pericolo per la democrazia
-Grillo annulla intervista a Sky

Proposta shock
su IMU

40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
10,00%

CENTRODESTRA

SCMONTI

IBC

M5S

FD

ARANCIONI

/1
3

/1
3

/0
2

20

18

/0
2

/1
3

/1
3
16

/0
2

/1
3

/0
2

14

/0
2

/1
3
12

10

/0
2

/1
3

/1
3
08

/0
2

/1
3

/0
2

06

04

/0
2

/1
3

/1
3
02

/0
2

/1
3

/0
1

31

29

/0
1

/1
3

/1
3
27

/0
1

/1
3

/0
1

25

/0
1

/1
3
23

21

/0
1

/1
3

/1
3
19

/0
1

/1
3

/0
1

17

15

/0
1

/1
3

/1
3
13

/0
1

/1
3

/0
1

11

/0
1

/1
3
09

07

/0
1

/1
3

/1
3

/0
1

05

/0
1

03

01

/0
1

/1
3

0,00%
new spaces for politcal debates

avg comments per user

zerolikers: users who never liked any
content published on a specific page but
nevertheless commented on that page.

likers

zerolikers
4

Giannino

Grillo

Monti

Vendola

0

% zerolikers over total
users

0.35

avg comments by
zerolikers
0

Berlusconi Bersani

Berlusconi Bersani

Giannino

Grillo

Monti

Vendola
0.60
% comments by
zerolikers

0

Berlusconi Bersani

Giannino

Grillo

Monti

Vendola

More Related Content

Social Media in 2013 italian Elections

  • 1. Social Media in the 2013 Italian Election Luca Rossi1, Fabio Giglietto2, Mario Orefice2, Giovanni Boccia Artieri2
  • 3. Data construction Every electoral system frame the individual political opinion within a specific structure e.g. parties, coalitions, etc. Social Media Italian Political system Conversation based on an individual level (Politicians) Parties and coalitions are the electoral unit. @silvioberlusconi @beppegrillo CDX @pbersani IBC @angealfano M5S
  • 5. 12 3- 01 1- 3 20 51 1- 3 2 7- 01 1- 3 2 9- 01 1- 3 11 20 - 1 13 1/ 20 13 13 / 1/ 20 15 13 / 1/ 20 17 13 / 1/ 20 19 13 / 1/ 20 21 13 / 1/ 20 23 13 / 1/ 20 25 13 / 1/ 20 27 13 / 1/ 20 29 13 / 1/ 20 31 13 /2 2- 01 2- 3 2 4- 01 2- 3 2 6- 01 2- 3 2 8- 01 2- 3 10 20 - 2 13 12 20 -2 13 2/ 20 14 13 / 2/ 20 16 13 / 2/ 20 18 13 / 2/ 20 20 13 / 2/ 20 22 13 / 2/ 20 24 13 /2 01 3 1- 1120 1 31- 3 2 5- 013 12 7- 013 12 9- 013 111 201 3 -1 -2 0 1/ 13 13 / 1/ 201 15 3 / 1/ 201 17 3 / 1/ 201 19 3 / 1/ 201 21 3 /2 0 1/ 23 13 / 1/ 201 25 3 / 1/ 201 27 3 / 1/ 201 29 3 /2 0 1/ 31 13 /2 01 22- 3 20 1 42- 3 20 1 62- 3 20 1 82- 3 20 10 13 -2 12 201 3 -2 2/ 201 14 3 / 2/ 201 16 3 / 2/ 201 18 3 /2 01 2/ 20 3 / 2/ 201 22 3 / 2/ 201 24 3 /2 01 3 Twitter mentions trend 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 CENTRODESTRA CENTRODESTRA ARANCIONI ARANCIONI IBC IBC M5S M5S FD FD SCMONTI People Talking About on Facebook 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 SCMONTI
  • 6. Errors FB/TW/Polls Single day of Data, Feb. 7th 2013
  • 7. Evolution of the mean average error
  • 8. Political surveys and Facebook PTA
  • 9. Political surveys and Twitter Mentions
  • 10. Media presence: is there a significant correlation between the presence on the (online) media and the electoral results.
  • 11. Mentions trend/coalition -B a UnoMattina -B a Radio2 annuncia lettera per restituzione IMU -Rinvio processo Ruby per legittimo imp. -B su Sanremo rosso -Bersani ad Agor -Bersani su PD/MPS -presentazione della squadra del csx Berlusconi a ServizioPubblico Berlusconi su Mussolini e leggi razziali 80,00% -Patto Monti/Bersani anti-Berlusconi -Videomessaggio di Monti su Fb -Monti a Skytg24 no a unioni gay 70,00% -Monti a OttoeMezzo e UnoMattina -Monti svela il logo di Scelta Civica 60,00% -Puppato ad Agor -Renzi/Bersani a Firenze -Scontro Bersani/Grillo -Scontro Bersani/Maroni -Monti apre campagna. riforme radicali via gli incapaci voto ad erasmus 50,00% -IBC in piazza a Milano -Scontro Bersani/Grillo su Casa Pound e reddito citt. -Bersani smacchiamo il giaguaro -Tsunamitour a Genova e Savona -Berl su Grillo pericolo per la democrazia -Grillo annulla intervista a Sky Proposta shock su IMU 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% CENTRODESTRA SCMONTI IBC M5S FD ARANCIONI /1 3 /1 3 /0 2 20 18 /0 2 /1 3 /1 3 16 /0 2 /1 3 /0 2 14 /0 2 /1 3 12 10 /0 2 /1 3 /1 3 08 /0 2 /1 3 /0 2 06 04 /0 2 /1 3 /1 3 02 /0 2 /1 3 /0 1 31 29 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 27 /0 1 /1 3 /0 1 25 /0 1 /1 3 23 21 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 19 /0 1 /1 3 /0 1 17 15 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 13 /0 1 /1 3 /0 1 11 /0 1 /1 3 09 07 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 /0 1 05 /0 1 03 01 /0 1 /1 3 0,00%
  • 12. new spaces for politcal debates avg comments per user zerolikers: users who never liked any content published on a specific page but nevertheless commented on that page. likers zerolikers
  • 13. 4 Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola 0 % zerolikers over total users 0.35 avg comments by zerolikers 0 Berlusconi Bersani Berlusconi Bersani Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola
  • 14. 0.60 % comments by zerolikers 0 Berlusconi Bersani Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola