On February 2013, over 35 million Italian citizens voted to renew the national Parliament. For the first time in Italian history, Internet played an important and perhaps decisive role as place of political debating. In order to investigate the role that social media played in this electoral campaign, we collected social media mentions from Facebook and Twitter of the main political leaders during the month prior the election. This resulted in dataset composed by more than 2 millions Twitter messages and 25 millions Facebook interactions. Starting from critical multi-level approach, present paper will attempt both to deal with complexity of election predictive models based on online data and to highlight main determinants affecting vote and online mention. All these questions will be answered through the use of large-scale longitudinal data.
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Social Media in 2013 italian Elections
1. Social Media in the 2013 Italian
Election
Luca Rossi1, Fabio Giglietto2, Mario Orefice2, Giovanni Boccia Artieri2
3. Data construction
Every electoral system frame the individual
political opinion within a specific structure e.g.
parties, coalitions, etc.
Social Media
Italian Political system
Conversation based on an
individual level (Politicians)
Parties and coalitions are the
electoral unit.
@silvioberlusconi
@beppegrillo
CDX
@pbersani
IBC
@angealfano
M5S
10. Media presence: is there a significant
correlation between the presence on the
(online) media and the electoral results.
11. Mentions trend/coalition
-B a UnoMattina
-B a Radio2 annuncia lettera per
restituzione IMU
-Rinvio processo Ruby per legittimo imp.
-B su Sanremo rosso
-Bersani ad Agor
-Bersani su PD/MPS
-presentazione della squadra del csx
Berlusconi a ServizioPubblico
Berlusconi su Mussolini
e leggi razziali
80,00%
-Patto Monti/Bersani anti-Berlusconi
-Videomessaggio di Monti su Fb
-Monti a Skytg24 no a unioni gay
70,00%
-Monti a OttoeMezzo
e UnoMattina
-Monti svela il logo
di Scelta Civica
60,00%
-Puppato ad Agor
-Renzi/Bersani a Firenze
-Scontro Bersani/Grillo
-Scontro Bersani/Maroni
-Monti apre campagna.
riforme radicali
via gli incapaci
voto ad erasmus
50,00%
-IBC in piazza a Milano
-Scontro Bersani/Grillo
su Casa Pound e reddito citt.
-Bersani smacchiamo il giaguaro
-Tsunamitour a Genova e Savona
-Berl su Grillo pericolo per la democrazia
-Grillo annulla intervista a Sky
Proposta shock
su IMU
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
10,00%
CENTRODESTRA
SCMONTI
IBC
M5S
FD
ARANCIONI
/1
3
/1
3
/0
2
20
18
/0
2
/1
3
/1
3
16
/0
2
/1
3
/0
2
14
/0
2
/1
3
12
10
/0
2
/1
3
/1
3
08
/0
2
/1
3
/0
2
06
04
/0
2
/1
3
/1
3
02
/0
2
/1
3
/0
1
31
29
/0
1
/1
3
/1
3
27
/0
1
/1
3
/0
1
25
/0
1
/1
3
23
21
/0
1
/1
3
/1
3
19
/0
1
/1
3
/0
1
17
15
/0
1
/1
3
/1
3
13
/0
1
/1
3
/0
1
11
/0
1
/1
3
09
07
/0
1
/1
3
/1
3
/0
1
05
/0
1
03
01
/0
1
/1
3
0,00%
12. new spaces for politcal debates
avg comments per user
zerolikers: users who never liked any
content published on a specific page but
nevertheless commented on that page.
likers
zerolikers