�ݺ�ߣ

8th Kingsman EU Sugar Seminar
a trader’s perspective
“EU sugar and its role on the
world stage”
EU seminar 24-04-2018 Julian Price - ASSUC 1

Last year …
• Last year, ASSUC was asked to give an assessment
of the EU’s future role on the world stage:
– We were asked, “are you ready?”:
– We forecast that EU exports will certainly
double, possibly triple;
– and preferential imports will certainly halve,
maybe reduce even further.
• Last year, we quoted Karl Marx:
– To redress the balance, this year I’d like to
quote Adam Smith:
– By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls,
very good grapes can be raised in Scotland,
and very good wine too can be made of them
at about thirty times the expense for which at
least equally good can be brought from foreign
countries. Would it be a reasonable law to
prohibit the importation of all foreign wines,
merely to encourage the making of claret and
burgundy in Scotland?
• The Wealth Of Nations, Book IV, Chapter
II, p. 458, para. 15.
EU seminar 24-04-2018 Julian Price - ASSUC2

EU: from net importer to net exporter
Source: Eurostat
Forecast
basis 3m
trend

European ports of export
Julian Price - ASSUC
Port Further information
Gdansk http://www.portgdansk.pl/events/new-sugar-terminal-to-be-constructed-at-the-port-of-gdansk
Dunkirk https://www.bollore-ports.com/reseau-mondial/france/port-de-dunkerque.html
Calais https://www.portboulognecalais.fr/fr/terminal-de-commerce
Rouen http://www.haropaports.com/fr/le-terminal-sucrier-robust-reprend-du-service-rouen
Antwerp https://www.euroports.com/terminal/sugar-terminal-ta518-antwerp-belgium/
Le Havre http://www.shgt.fr/sucre-oceane-en/
Hamburg http://hamburg.steinweg.com/uploads/steinweg/documents/brochure_sugar_1.2.pdf
Magdeburg https://www.magdeburg-hafen.de/de/transport-logistik/bahndienstleistungen.html
Eemshaven https://www.verkoopav.nl/projecten/eemshaven-sugar-terminal-suiker-unie/
Terneuzen https://www.investinzeeland.com/en/news/business-park-axelse-vlakte-near-terneuzen-demand
EU seminar 24-04-2018 4

How far will EU exports go?

Principal EU export flows
Source: Eurostat
EU seminar 24-04-2018 6

Q4 2017 principal EU export flows
Source: Eurostat

White premium < $60 pmt
WTO EU export limit
applies
Source:

Model preferential imports?

EU raw sugar for refining import flows
Source: Eurostat

EU white sugar imports ar sharply lower
Source: Eurostat

Steady direct consumption raws trade

IPR imports seem surprisingly resilient so far

Principal intra-EU trade flows

Intra-EU surplus and deficit states
Source: Eurostat

EU stocks seem high but not exceptionally so
Source: European Commission

Voluntary Coupled Support
Source: Wageningen Economic Research
Source: ProSunergy Ltd.Source: European Commission

Bio-ethanol
No correlation?
Source:

The weather: 2018/19 spring sowings are delayed

#5 market structure is encouraging EU export delay?
Source: European Commission

The EU sugar “playing field”
369 €/t
Source:
European
Commission

Historical EU sugar import prices as reported to
Customs or VAT authorities in each MS

Summary
• Factors to watch and
analyse:
– The weather
– The world market and the
markets for cereals
– EU consumption trends
– Bio-ethanol production
– Voluntary Coupled Support
– External trade
• ACP/CA imports and
alternative, regional markets
• Exports to MENA and further
afield
– All other things being equal,
EU exports in 2018/19 may
be only ≈2¼ million tonnes??

ASSUC aisbl
European Association of Sugar Traders
Rue de Trêves 49-51, Box 14
B - 1040 Brussels
Tel +32(0) 27 366 873
Fax +32(0) 27 326 766
http://www.assuc.eu/
Follow us on Twitter at
@sugartraders
Follow us on LinkedIn at
http://bit.ly/assuc
EU seminar 24-04-2018 24

�ݺ�ߣ

Julian Price ... a blizzard of EU sugar statistics for the Platts Kingsman EU sugar conference

More Related Content

Julian Price ... a blizzard of EU sugar statistics for the Platts Kingsman EU sugar conference