Exam of June 2016, Mathematical Statistics 3rd yearChristian Robert
油
Ce document concerne un examen de statistiques incluant des exercices sur diff辿rentes lois de probabilit辿 comme la loi normale et la loi de Poisson. Il traite de l'estimation et du maximum de vraisemblance pour des 辿chantillons, ainsi que des concepts bay辿siens li辿s des distributions post辿rieures. Les questions portent sur divers types d'estimateurs et leurs propri辿t辿s, y compris leur biais et leur efficacit辿.
Zavod, the Institute of Public Health for Vara転din County in Croatia, was using a slow paper-based system to monitor water, food, and product safety. They implemented an electronic laboratory information management system called eQMS:LIMS from IBM to digitize their process. The new system allows Zavod to analyze more samples faster, identify risks more quickly, and meet new EU regulations by providing fully traceable data. It has increased the productivity and efficiency of Zavod's operations.
This document provides instructions and information for Selle SMP bicycle saddles. It summarizes the company's 60 year history of crafting saddles in Italy. It provides guidance on saddle fit and maintenance, and warns users of potential risks from improper saddle use. The document advises users to replace saddles after 15,000-20,000 kilometers of use.
Cheng Loong Corp is the largest integrated paperboard packaging manufacturer in Asia, excluding Japan. It has annual revenue of $1.1 billion and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan. Cheng Loong produces containerboard, corrugated containers, folding cartons, and retail packaging. It has 22 facilities and 7,000 employees throughout Taiwan and Southeast Asia. The company is focused on sustainable growth, innovation, and environmental protection.
Discussion of Persi Diaconis' lecture at ISBA 2016Christian Robert
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This document discusses Monte Carlo methods for numerical integration and estimating normalizing constants. It summarizes several approaches: estimating normalizing constants using samples; reverse logistic regression for estimating constants in mixtures; Xiao-Li's maximum likelihood formulation for Monte Carlo integration; and Persi's probabilistic numerics which provide uncertainties for numerical calculations. The document advocates first approximating the distribution of an integrand before estimating its expectation to incorporate non-parametric information and account for multiple estimators.
AFF Services provides digital portfolios and services. Their website www.affservices.com contains more information about their digital portfolios and the services they offer. Visitors to their website can learn more details about the digital portfolios and services from AFF Services.
The document presents a study on lossless Bayesian inference in infinite dimensions using 了-coalescents, highlighting the challenges of inferring unknown functions from samples. It discusses likelihood-informed subspaces and proposes methods to sample posterior moments with controlled residual uncertainty. Additionally, the paper introduces pseudo-marginal MCMC algorithms and includes simulation studies to evaluate the proposed methods.
This document discusses Bayesian hypothesis testing and some of the challenges associated with it. It makes three key points:
1) There is tension between using posterior probabilities from a loss function approach versus Bayes factors, which eliminate prior dependence but have no direct connection to the posterior.
2) Bayesian hypothesis testing relies on choosing prior probabilities for hypotheses and prior distributions for parameters, which can strongly impact results and are often arbitrary.
3) Common Bayesian testing procedures like using Bayes factors can produce paradoxical results in some cases, like Lindley's paradox where the Bayes factor favors the null hypothesis as sample size increases despite evidence against it.
Este documento presenta una introducci坦n a la psicolog鱈a. Explica que la psicolog鱈a es el estudio cient鱈fico de la mente humana y la conducta. Detalla el origen de la palabra psicolog鱈a y sus ramas principales como la psicolog鱈a experimental, psicolog鱈a cl鱈nica, psicolog鱈a evolutiva y m叩s. Tambi辿n explora brevemente la historia de la psicolog鱈a desde la antigua Grecia hasta Descartes.
The document discusses using k-nearest neighbors and KD-trees to create a computationally cheap approximation (a) of an expensive-to-evaluate target distribution . This approximation allows the use of delayed acceptance in a Metropolis-Hastings or pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to potentially reduce computation cost per iteration. Specifically, it describes:
1) Using a weighted average of the k nearest neighbor values to define the approximation a.
2) How delayed acceptance preserves the stationary distribution while mixing more slowly than standard MH.
3) Storing the evaluated values in a KD-tree to enable fast lookup of the k nearest neighbors.
random forests for ABC model choice and parameter estimationChristian Robert
油
The document discusses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). It begins by introducing ABC as a likelihood-free method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is unavailable or computationally intractable. ABC works by simulating data under different parameter values and accepting simulations that are close to the observed data based on a distance measure.
The document then discusses advances in ABC, including modifying the proposal distribution to increase efficiency, viewing it as a conditional density estimation problem, and including measurement error in the framework. It also discusses the consistency of ABC as the number of simulations increases and sample size grows large. Finally, it discusses applications of ABC to model selection by treating the model index as an additional parameter.
The document discusses intractable likelihoods and the application of noisy Monte Carlo algorithms to Ising models. It explicates various methods for estimating likelihoods, including exact and approximate methods, and the challenges posed by doubly intractable distributions. Additionally, it highlights the effectiveness of noisy methods compared to traditional Monte Carlo techniques and presents empirical results related to their use in Ising models.
William Cooper is seeking a management position in facilities. He has over 25 years of experience, including 15 years of management experience. He currently works as the Director of Buildings and Grounds for the Milford School District, where he is responsible for maintenance planning and scheduling, budget administration, and overseeing contractors. He has comprehensive experience in facilities management, project management, and staff supervision.
The document discusses the concept of the ratio of uniforms, detailing the mathematical framework for generating distributions proportional to a given function f using transformations and change of variables. It explains the process of simulating a uniform distribution and identifies applications to standard distributions, such as Student's t. The principles are generalized for monotone transformations and explore conditions for density adequacy.
The document outlines a 7-step process for sales planning: 1) Define a promotional calendar, 2) Analyze past sales records, 3) Project initial sales, 4) Project revenues and expenses to determine results, 5) Adjust projections to achieve desired results, 6) Detail the plan by section, store, day based on history and campaigns, 7) Continuously monitor and adjust the plan based on sales. The process aims to align campaigns with company strategy and forecast sales and expenses to ensure planned results are achieved.
This document discusses Bayesian hypothesis testing and some of the challenges associated with it. It makes three key points:
1) There is tension between using posterior probabilities from a loss function approach versus Bayes factors, which eliminate prior dependence but have no direct connection to the posterior.
2) Bayesian hypothesis testing relies on choosing prior probabilities for hypotheses and prior distributions for parameters, which can strongly impact results and are often arbitrary.
3) Common Bayesian testing procedures like using Bayes factors can produce paradoxical results in some cases, like Lindley's paradox where the Bayes factor favors the null hypothesis as sample size increases despite evidence against it.
Este documento presenta una introducci坦n a la psicolog鱈a. Explica que la psicolog鱈a es el estudio cient鱈fico de la mente humana y la conducta. Detalla el origen de la palabra psicolog鱈a y sus ramas principales como la psicolog鱈a experimental, psicolog鱈a cl鱈nica, psicolog鱈a evolutiva y m叩s. Tambi辿n explora brevemente la historia de la psicolog鱈a desde la antigua Grecia hasta Descartes.
The document discusses using k-nearest neighbors and KD-trees to create a computationally cheap approximation (a) of an expensive-to-evaluate target distribution . This approximation allows the use of delayed acceptance in a Metropolis-Hastings or pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to potentially reduce computation cost per iteration. Specifically, it describes:
1) Using a weighted average of the k nearest neighbor values to define the approximation a.
2) How delayed acceptance preserves the stationary distribution while mixing more slowly than standard MH.
3) Storing the evaluated values in a KD-tree to enable fast lookup of the k nearest neighbors.
random forests for ABC model choice and parameter estimationChristian Robert
油
The document discusses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). It begins by introducing ABC as a likelihood-free method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is unavailable or computationally intractable. ABC works by simulating data under different parameter values and accepting simulations that are close to the observed data based on a distance measure.
The document then discusses advances in ABC, including modifying the proposal distribution to increase efficiency, viewing it as a conditional density estimation problem, and including measurement error in the framework. It also discusses the consistency of ABC as the number of simulations increases and sample size grows large. Finally, it discusses applications of ABC to model selection by treating the model index as an additional parameter.
The document discusses intractable likelihoods and the application of noisy Monte Carlo algorithms to Ising models. It explicates various methods for estimating likelihoods, including exact and approximate methods, and the challenges posed by doubly intractable distributions. Additionally, it highlights the effectiveness of noisy methods compared to traditional Monte Carlo techniques and presents empirical results related to their use in Ising models.
William Cooper is seeking a management position in facilities. He has over 25 years of experience, including 15 years of management experience. He currently works as the Director of Buildings and Grounds for the Milford School District, where he is responsible for maintenance planning and scheduling, budget administration, and overseeing contractors. He has comprehensive experience in facilities management, project management, and staff supervision.
The document discusses the concept of the ratio of uniforms, detailing the mathematical framework for generating distributions proportional to a given function f using transformations and change of variables. It explains the process of simulating a uniform distribution and identifies applications to standard distributions, such as Student's t. The principles are generalized for monotone transformations and explore conditions for density adequacy.
The document outlines a 7-step process for sales planning: 1) Define a promotional calendar, 2) Analyze past sales records, 3) Project initial sales, 4) Project revenues and expenses to determine results, 5) Adjust projections to achieve desired results, 6) Detail the plan by section, store, day based on history and campaigns, 7) Continuously monitor and adjust the plan based on sales. The process aims to align campaigns with company strategy and forecast sales and expenses to ensure planned results are achieved.
3. Communicatiedoelstellingen Mensen wijzen op de onderschatte gevaren van siervuurwerk. Siervuurwerk is net zon krachtig explosief als knalvuurwerk. 20% Daling van het aantal slachtoffers dat wordt behandeld op de Spoedeisende Hulpafdeling van een ziekenhuis. Doelgroep: mannen tussen de 15 en de 40.
4. Het idee Serie virals rondom een groep ultieme explosieven-experts: the Liberation Army Against Freedom. Deze groep vrijheidstrijders oefent met siervuurwerk alsof het om zware explosieven gaat.
5. Het idee Serie virals rondom een groep ultieme explosieven-experts: the Liberation Army Against Freedom. Deze groep vrijheidstrijders oefent met siervuurwerk alsof het om zware explosieven gaat. Boodschap: ook siervuurwerk is en blijft een explosief. Aangevuld met concrete afsteektips.
6. Het idee Serie virals rondom een groep ultieme explosieven-experts: the Liberation Army Against Freedom. Deze groep vrijheidstrijders oefent met siervuurwerk alsof het om zware explosieven gaat. Boodschap: ook siervuurwerk is en blijft een explosief. Aangevuld met concrete afsteektips. Gecommuniceerd via laaf.info, seeding en verkorte teasers op MTV en TMF verwijzend naar de site.