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Leadership In The 4th Wave

Story Jacket Consultants
Story Jacket Consultants

The future of leadership is anything but predictable. We know for sure that it will be different from the way leadership is know and applied today. A different type of leader is going to emerge in the 4th wave.

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Leadership in the 4th Wave Guy Dumas Story Jacket Consultants August 10, 2012 http://www.storyjacket.com
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 2 Introduction By 2022, the concept of leadership, in whatever spirit, identity, and behavior it takes, will be immersed in the generation of network intelligence (TEDGlobal, 2012) as a result of exponential technologies, creativity, adaptability, openness and particularly, innovation and entrepreneurial practices (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012; Sirois, 2000; Anderson, 2006; Li, 2010; Drucker, 1985). It is safe to say; the age of network intelligence will require different values to revolutionize kindness, redefine happiness and success, and rekindle community bonds powerful enough to change your life and the lives of everyone around you (Kielburgers, 2006, p. iv). Drucker (1985) stated, entrepreneurs, create something new, something different; they change or transmute values (p.22). It will most likely be entrepreneurs or the business community to solidify the age of network intelligence with the guidance of the physicist community. The world is in the second decade of the 21st century where there is no obvious shelf life. When Bennis (2001, pp. 3-13), wrote about the future having no shelf life, I wonder how many readers believed what he was saying would become amazingly accurate? There is no obvious shelf life for leadership concepts; however leadership will certainly be an essential part of societal change with the underpinning of technology. Having gone through or still going through the three revolutionary forces information technology, communications and biotechnology has brought about the demise of one way of living and given birth to another, which is evolving at breakneck speed (Sirois, 2000, p.2). Things are moving so fast that the innovations of a single decade will soon equal those of the entire previous century (Sirois, 2000, p.29). Moores Law is exponential growth, where it states that every eighteen months, the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles, which essentially means that every eighteen months computers get twice as fast for the same price (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012, p. 53). The Chinese curse about living in fascinating times is upon us. Of course, every generation would say that. However, those words of wisdom seem to be more pronounced today than any other time in history.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 3 The waves of change The last three waves of change are well known as the agriculture, industrial and knowledge/information waves (Toffler, 1980). However, the identity of the 4th wave is still open for a vote. The physicist, Dr. Michio Kaku, refers to these waves as steam power, electricity, high technology and advanced technology for the fourth wave, of which he speaks of as perfect capitalism (Situfla, 2012). Exhibit 1 summarizes the characteristics of the four waves. Exhibit 1 Knowledge/information wave Fourth (Network Intelligence) wave Worker ownership Perfect capitalism Balance and sustainability Servant Crested 2008 Stewardship We are connected and must We are one and choose to co- cooperate create Do we understand the need? Openness Are we creating value? Communitarian High technology Advanced technology Industrial wave Agriculture wave Stockholder business owner Started 8000 BC Materialism Ended 1650 1750 Supremacy of man Steam power Crested 1955 We are separate, and we must compete Are we making money? Are we beating the competition? Electricity Sources: Toffler (1980); Maynard (1996); Kaku (2012); Li (2010)
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 4 No one can predict the future with complete accuracy because of multiple uncertainties. All the best predictive instruments can never fully explain what tomorrow will look, act and be like, however, Kurzweil used his exponential growth charts to make a handful of predictions about the future. Now, certainly inventors and intellectuals are always making predictions, but his turned out to be uncannily accurate: foretelling the demise of the Soviet Union, a computers winning the chess championship, the rise of intelligent, computerized weapons in warfare, autonomous cars, and, perhaps most famously, the World Wide Web (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012, p. 55). Knowles (1980, p.41) describes a famous philosopher by the name of Alfred North Whitehead, who said, today this time span is considerably shorter than that of human life, and accordingly our training must prepare individuals to face a novelty of conditions. The following is an attempt to portray Whiteheads theory graphically. Exhibit 2 Years if individual longevity 25 30 40 50 70 Ancient Rome Renaissance 18th-19thCentury 20th Century At the time, Knowles (1980) described cultural change as massive inputs of new knowledge, technological innovation, vocational displacement, population mobility, and change in political and economic systems (p.41). Major cultural change occurred three to four times faster in the 20th century than in the previous periods. Cultural change in the 21st century will be just as fast or faster because the world is now more global and exponential. Gates (1999) shared, If the 1980s were about quality and the 1990s were about reengineering, then the 2000s will be about velocity (p. xiii). Today, velocity is given.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 5 21st century innovation opportunity Joseph Schumpeter discussed economic dynamics as having expansion and contraction properties; therefore the 21st century will also see recovery and prosperity occur several times during the period. Forstater (2007), found Schumpeter concluded that the principal driving force disrupting the stationary state of the economy was technological progress (or innovation) (p.120). In Druckers (1985, pp. 37 - 127) book, Innovation and entrepreneurship, he presents systemic innovation, meaning innovation opportunity. Drucker discusses seven sources of innovation opportunity of which the first four are internal, while the remaining three are external aspects. The four internal source areas are: The unexpected the unexpected success, failure and outside event; The incongruity between reality as it actually is and reality as it is assumed to be; Innovation based on process need; Changes in industry structure. The three external source areas are: Demographics (population changes); Changes in perception, mood, and meaning; New knowledge, both scientific and non-scientific. Evolving theories of leadership In order to deal effectively with the four internal aspects of innovation opportunity, an appropriate leadership approach is required. There are six basic approaches as suggested by Daft (2008, pp. 19-20) and they include the great man, trait, behavior, contingency, influence and relational theories. Other leadership concepts and the six basic approaches are found in the waves of change:
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 6 Exhibit 3 Knowledge/information wave Network Intelligence wave Influence theories Relational theories (Daft, 2008) Level five leadership (Maxwell, 2010) Open leadership (Li, 2010) Industrial wave Agricultural wave Behavior theories Great man theories Contingency theories Trait theories Source: adapted from Daft (2008) If specific competencies are a requirement in the 4th wave, then the most common ones are the ability to learn, business technical knowledge, communication skills, cosmopolitan world view, entrepreneurial, ethics, initiative, interpersonal skills, negotiation, organizational, problem solving, stamina, teaching, teamwork, and vision (Dantzer, 2000). These are remarkably similar to the behaviors described by the youth as discussed by Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 157). Demographics Labour force change Foot (1998) insists that demographics describe two thirds of everything. He also says Demography, the study of human populations, is the most powerful and most underutilized - tool we have to understand the past and foretell the future (p.8). Demographics help in the planning process. Leaders, in the next ten years, will be engaging a specific labour force with preferred leadership expectations. The Canadian population grew by 5.9% during 2006 to 2011 (Statistics Canada). It can be expected to grow at relatively the same rate in the next ten years.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 7 Exhibit 4 Canada Age characteristics Total Male Female Total population by age groups 4 33,476,685 16,414,225 17,062,460 0 to 4 years 1,877,095 961,150 915,945 5 to 9 years 1,809,895 925,965 883,935 10 to 14 years 1,920,355 983,995 936,360 15 to 19 years 2,178,135 1,115,845 1,062,295 20 to 24 years 2,187,450 1,108,775 1,078,670 25 to 29 years 2,169,590 1,077,275 1,092,315 30 to 34 years 2,162,905 1,058,810 1,104,095 35 to 39 years 2,173,930 1,064,200 1,109,735 40 to 44 years 2,324,875 1,141,720 1,183,155 45 to 49 years 2,675,130 1,318,715 1,356,420 50 to 54 years 2,658,965 1,309,030 1,349,940 55 to 59 years 2,340,635 1,147,300 1,193,335 60 to 64 years 2,052,670 1,002,690 1,049,985 65 to 69 years 1,521,715 738,010 783,705 70 to 74 years 1,153,065 543,435 609,630 75 to 79 years 922,700 417,945 504,755 80 to 84 years 702,070 291,085 410,985 85 years and over 645,515 208,300 437,215 Median age of the population 5 40.6 39.6 41.5 % of the population aged 15 and over 83.2 82.5 84.0 Source: Statistics Canada Based on the 2011 Canadian census there are 22,924,285 people in the workforce. By 2021, the scheduled Canadian census will identify approximately 23,881,865 people in the workforce. There is certainly going to be a change in the composition of the labour force by 2050. According to Mitra (2002, May) there were 18.4 million women in the workforce in 1950, and it jumped to 65.6 million in 2000. By the year 2050, there will be 91.5 million women in the workforce compared to 100.2 million men. In other word, there will be over 191.8 million people in the workforce with men accounting for approximately 52% and woman 48%.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 8 The percentage change amongst women between 1950 and 2000 is an incredible 256.8 percent change, while in the same time men changed 71.7%. Change amongst women in the workforce will slow down and grow and the same rate as men between 2000 and 2050. If the four components of slowdown in the growth of the labour force, changes in the gender structure of the labour force, changes in the age structure of the labour force and changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the labour force, leadership will need to adapt to these changes. The perception of plenty during the 4th wave The previous waves are easier to interpret because they already happened, unlike the future. Hindsight is 20/20. Toffler (1980) claims he was not the first one to use the analogy of waves to show civilizational shifts from one era to the next. Toffler mentions Norbert Elias describing it as a wave of advancing integration over several centuries (p.5). Toffler (1980) goes on to say, In 1837, a writer described the settlement of the American West in terms of successive waves first the pioneers, then the farmers, then the business interests, the third wave of migration (p.5). If we use the well reported and thoroughly documented period of 2008 as the ending point of the third wave, we can say we are in the infancy stage of the 4th wave. The 4th wave has no agreed name yet. However, there are a few suggestions. Dr. Kaku describes the 4th wave as perfect capitalism to include advanced technology such as artificial intelligence, robotics, infinite computing, ubiquitous broadband networks, digital manufacturing, nanomaterials, synthetic biology, while Diamandis and Kotler (2012) describe this period as Abundance. Diamandis and Kotler (2012) describe abundance (TheSasss1, 2011) as creating a world of possibility: a world where everyones days are spent dreaming and doing, not scrapping and scraping (p.13). Diamandis and Kotler have developed an abundance pyramid similar to the well known Maslows hierarchy of human needs. They present three levels, while Maslows model has five levels. There is more similarity than differences in the models.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 9 Exhibit 5 Health and Freedom Energy, education and information/communication Sufficient water, food and shelter Source: Diamandis and Kotler 2012 As Diamandis and Kotler (2012) explain, Over the past 150,000 years, Homo sapiens evolved in a world that was local and linear, but todays environment is global and exponential (p.34). The first three waves were local and linear, and the 4th wave is clearly global and exponential! Yunus (2008) publicly supports the concept of Globalization; however he appears cautious when he says, Globalization, as a general business principle, can bring more benefits to the poor than any alternative. But, without proper oversight and guidelines, globalization has the potential to be highly destructive (p.5). Globalization is here to stay. A project by the SUNY Levin Institute called Globalization 101 provides a learning web platform on numerous challenges and concerns around: Trade Environment Media Development Women Investment Technology
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 10 Culture Migration Human rights IMF/World bank Energy Education Health International law Teachers can access the learning material for various purposes. There are many online resources that promote and support the idea of globalization. Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 157) identify what youth think successful leaders must develop in the expanding global workplace: Communicate a global vision Be technologically savvy Embrace an open minded leadership style Champion diversity (style, culture, and leadership) Display flexibility and respect towards employees Foster a corporate culture of teamwork Strengthen charisma Be ethical New knowledge Advanced technology The following information reflects my notes of new knowledge from viewing the Youtube video of Dr. Kaku (CUNYQueensborough ,2009, October 28). In 2030, a chip will cost .01. Where there is internet, there is prosperity. People will access the internet through a pair of glasses or contact lenses, which is augmented reality. The internet is the virtual library where anyone with internet access can read
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 11 anything they want. Of course, by this time, the credibility of the internet has ascended. Cell phones will be a complete PC. Wall paper will be intelligent. People will engage their wall. The internet is female. During war times, the internet was to dominate the enemy. Today, the internet is female. They want to connect. To touch people. The internet began as a war fighting machine to a tool that connects. The computer constructs the office environment. The files are more valuable than computers because the computer will only cost pennies. The car will have no driver. GPS is the secret to driving the car. Traffic accidents, traffic jams can disappear. Health issues will disappear. The toilet will display everything about your health. The toilet will analyze proteins. Chips scattered throughout the bathroom. Complete medical examination. Genes can be read. Genes are equivalent owners manual. Organs can be reproduced. Today bone, skin, blood vessels can be grown in the lab. Shortly, other organs can be grown. Computer power can augment human life. Azimo is the first advanced Artificial intelligence. It takes six hours to walk across the room. Robots need to be programmed. Japan is the fastest aging population on earth. That is why Japan is building these robots to serve as nursing aids. Invisibility is possible with a microwave invisibility cloth. Meta-materials let things to be bent. Quantum teleportation is possible. Telepathy is coming faster than people think. A chip in the human brain will provide access and connection to the internet. Dreams may be photographed by a computer. In 50 years, there will be a star ship. Time and space may be bent. Dust clouds cover the raging black hole. Time travel is possible. There are four types of civilizations. Type 0 is present civilization. Type 1 controls the planets. Type 2 controls the entire stars. Type 3 controls the entire galaxy.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 12 Conclusion The idea of predictability is controversial. However, as Heijden (2005) indicated, If everything was predictable, there would be no room for strategizing. If nothing was predictable, strategizing would make no sense (p. 92). Society is in the early stages of the 4th wave. Leadership based on such concepts as open leadership (Li, 2010), and primal leadership (Goleman, 2002) are going to succeed. Exponential growth is responsible for advanced Technology. Exponential growth is just doubling numbers, where 1 becomes 2, 2 becomes 4 and 4 becomes 8 and so forth. Diamandis and Kotler (2012) stated, This astounding increase in computer power, speed, and memory, coupled with a concurrent drop in both price and size, is exponential change at work (p. 54). Technology enables an abundant life. People will now choose between reality and augmented reality in an infinite world.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 13 References Anderson, C. (2006). The long tail: Why the future of business is selling less of more. New York, NY: Hyperion Bennis, W. Spreitzer, G, and Cummings, T. (2001). The future of leadership. Todays top leadership thinkers speak to tomorrows leaders. San Francisco, CA: Jossey Bass. CUNYQueensborough (2009, October 28). The world in 2030 by Dr. Michio Kaku. Retrieved on August 8 from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=219YybX66MY Daft, R. (2008). The leadership experience. Mason, OH: South Western Cengage Learning. Dantzer, M. Ruth (2000). Leadership requirements in the 21st century: The perceptions of Canadian public sector leaders. Ph.D. Dissertation, Andrews University, United States -- Michigan. Retrieved July 31, 2012, from ABI/INFORM Global.(Publication No. AAT 9979881). Diamandis, P. & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York, NY: Free Press Drucker. P. (1985). Innovation and entrepreneurship. New York, NY: HarperCollins Publishers, Inc. Drucker, P. (1993). Post capitalist society. New York, NY: HarperCollins Publishers, Inc. Foot, D. (1998). Boom, bust and echo 2000. Toronto, Ontario: Macfarlane Walter & Ross.
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 14 Forstater, M. (2007). Little book of big ideas: Economics. London, UK: Elwin Street Limited. Gates, W. (1999). Business at the speed of thought: Using a digital nervous system. New York, NY: Warner Books, Inc. Situfla, (2012), Michio Kaku The Fourth Wave @ Telefonica Leadership Conference 2012 in Miami FL. Retrieved on August 8, 2012 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OWLwXnhlFo Kielburger, C. and Kielburger, M. (2006). Me to We: Finding meaning in a material world. Mississauga, ON: John Wiley and Sons. Knowles, Malcolm. (1980). The Modern Practice of Adult Education: From Pedagogy to Andragogy. New York, NY: Cambridge Li, C. (2010). Open Leadership: How social technology can transform the way you lead. San Francisco, CA: Jossey - Bass Maynard, H., Jr, and Mehrtens, S. (1996). The Fourth Wave. San Francisco, CA: Berrett Koehler Publishers. Mitra Toossi. (2002, May). A century of change: The U.S. labor force, 1950-2050. Monthly Labor Review, 125(5), 15-28. Retrieved July 31, 2012, from ABI/INFORM Global. (Document ID: 162050391). Sirois, C. (2000). Organic management: Creating a culture of innovation. Toronto, Ontario: HarperCollins Canada. SUNY Levin Institute. (n.d) Globalization. Retrieved on August 8, 2012 from http://www.globalization101.org/teaching-tools/
LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 15 Statistics Canada (n.d.) Retrieved on August 08, 2012 from http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp- pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=PR&Code1=01&Geo2=PR&Code2=0 &Data=Count&SearchText=canada&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All &Custom=&TABID=1 TEDGlobal. (2012, June). Don Tapscott: Four principles for the open world. Retrieved on August 9, 2012 from http://www.ted.com/talks/don_tapscott_four_principles_for_the_open_world_1.html Toffler, A. (1980). The third wave. New York, NY: Bantam Books. TheSasss1. (2011, June 27). Are We Ready For the Coming 'Age of Abundance?' - Dr. Michio Kaku (Full). Retrieved on August 8, 2012 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceEog1XS5OI&feature=related Yunus, M. (2007). Creating a world without poverty: Social business and the future of capitalism. New York, NY: Public Affairs.

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Leadership In The 4th Wave

  • 1. Leadership in the 4th Wave Guy Dumas Story Jacket Consultants August 10, 2012 http://www.storyjacket.com
  • 2. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 2 Introduction By 2022, the concept of leadership, in whatever spirit, identity, and behavior it takes, will be immersed in the generation of network intelligence (TEDGlobal, 2012) as a result of exponential technologies, creativity, adaptability, openness and particularly, innovation and entrepreneurial practices (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012; Sirois, 2000; Anderson, 2006; Li, 2010; Drucker, 1985). It is safe to say; the age of network intelligence will require different values to revolutionize kindness, redefine happiness and success, and rekindle community bonds powerful enough to change your life and the lives of everyone around you (Kielburgers, 2006, p. iv). Drucker (1985) stated, entrepreneurs, create something new, something different; they change or transmute values (p.22). It will most likely be entrepreneurs or the business community to solidify the age of network intelligence with the guidance of the physicist community. The world is in the second decade of the 21st century where there is no obvious shelf life. When Bennis (2001, pp. 3-13), wrote about the future having no shelf life, I wonder how many readers believed what he was saying would become amazingly accurate? There is no obvious shelf life for leadership concepts; however leadership will certainly be an essential part of societal change with the underpinning of technology. Having gone through or still going through the three revolutionary forces information technology, communications and biotechnology has brought about the demise of one way of living and given birth to another, which is evolving at breakneck speed (Sirois, 2000, p.2). Things are moving so fast that the innovations of a single decade will soon equal those of the entire previous century (Sirois, 2000, p.29). Moores Law is exponential growth, where it states that every eighteen months, the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles, which essentially means that every eighteen months computers get twice as fast for the same price (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012, p. 53). The Chinese curse about living in fascinating times is upon us. Of course, every generation would say that. However, those words of wisdom seem to be more pronounced today than any other time in history.
  • 3. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 3 The waves of change The last three waves of change are well known as the agriculture, industrial and knowledge/information waves (Toffler, 1980). However, the identity of the 4th wave is still open for a vote. The physicist, Dr. Michio Kaku, refers to these waves as steam power, electricity, high technology and advanced technology for the fourth wave, of which he speaks of as perfect capitalism (Situfla, 2012). Exhibit 1 summarizes the characteristics of the four waves. Exhibit 1 Knowledge/information wave Fourth (Network Intelligence) wave Worker ownership Perfect capitalism Balance and sustainability Servant Crested 2008 Stewardship We are connected and must We are one and choose to co- cooperate create Do we understand the need? Openness Are we creating value? Communitarian High technology Advanced technology Industrial wave Agriculture wave Stockholder business owner Started 8000 BC Materialism Ended 1650 1750 Supremacy of man Steam power Crested 1955 We are separate, and we must compete Are we making money? Are we beating the competition? Electricity Sources: Toffler (1980); Maynard (1996); Kaku (2012); Li (2010)
  • 4. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 4 No one can predict the future with complete accuracy because of multiple uncertainties. All the best predictive instruments can never fully explain what tomorrow will look, act and be like, however, Kurzweil used his exponential growth charts to make a handful of predictions about the future. Now, certainly inventors and intellectuals are always making predictions, but his turned out to be uncannily accurate: foretelling the demise of the Soviet Union, a computers winning the chess championship, the rise of intelligent, computerized weapons in warfare, autonomous cars, and, perhaps most famously, the World Wide Web (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012, p. 55). Knowles (1980, p.41) describes a famous philosopher by the name of Alfred North Whitehead, who said, today this time span is considerably shorter than that of human life, and accordingly our training must prepare individuals to face a novelty of conditions. The following is an attempt to portray Whiteheads theory graphically. Exhibit 2 Years if individual longevity 25 30 40 50 70 Ancient Rome Renaissance 18th-19thCentury 20th Century At the time, Knowles (1980) described cultural change as massive inputs of new knowledge, technological innovation, vocational displacement, population mobility, and change in political and economic systems (p.41). Major cultural change occurred three to four times faster in the 20th century than in the previous periods. Cultural change in the 21st century will be just as fast or faster because the world is now more global and exponential. Gates (1999) shared, If the 1980s were about quality and the 1990s were about reengineering, then the 2000s will be about velocity (p. xiii). Today, velocity is given.
  • 5. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 5 21st century innovation opportunity Joseph Schumpeter discussed economic dynamics as having expansion and contraction properties; therefore the 21st century will also see recovery and prosperity occur several times during the period. Forstater (2007), found Schumpeter concluded that the principal driving force disrupting the stationary state of the economy was technological progress (or innovation) (p.120). In Druckers (1985, pp. 37 - 127) book, Innovation and entrepreneurship, he presents systemic innovation, meaning innovation opportunity. Drucker discusses seven sources of innovation opportunity of which the first four are internal, while the remaining three are external aspects. The four internal source areas are: The unexpected the unexpected success, failure and outside event; The incongruity between reality as it actually is and reality as it is assumed to be; Innovation based on process need; Changes in industry structure. The three external source areas are: Demographics (population changes); Changes in perception, mood, and meaning; New knowledge, both scientific and non-scientific. Evolving theories of leadership In order to deal effectively with the four internal aspects of innovation opportunity, an appropriate leadership approach is required. There are six basic approaches as suggested by Daft (2008, pp. 19-20) and they include the great man, trait, behavior, contingency, influence and relational theories. Other leadership concepts and the six basic approaches are found in the waves of change:
  • 6. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 6 Exhibit 3 Knowledge/information wave Network Intelligence wave Influence theories Relational theories (Daft, 2008) Level five leadership (Maxwell, 2010) Open leadership (Li, 2010) Industrial wave Agricultural wave Behavior theories Great man theories Contingency theories Trait theories Source: adapted from Daft (2008) If specific competencies are a requirement in the 4th wave, then the most common ones are the ability to learn, business technical knowledge, communication skills, cosmopolitan world view, entrepreneurial, ethics, initiative, interpersonal skills, negotiation, organizational, problem solving, stamina, teaching, teamwork, and vision (Dantzer, 2000). These are remarkably similar to the behaviors described by the youth as discussed by Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 157). Demographics Labour force change Foot (1998) insists that demographics describe two thirds of everything. He also says Demography, the study of human populations, is the most powerful and most underutilized - tool we have to understand the past and foretell the future (p.8). Demographics help in the planning process. Leaders, in the next ten years, will be engaging a specific labour force with preferred leadership expectations. The Canadian population grew by 5.9% during 2006 to 2011 (Statistics Canada). It can be expected to grow at relatively the same rate in the next ten years.
  • 7. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 7 Exhibit 4 Canada Age characteristics Total Male Female Total population by age groups 4 33,476,685 16,414,225 17,062,460 0 to 4 years 1,877,095 961,150 915,945 5 to 9 years 1,809,895 925,965 883,935 10 to 14 years 1,920,355 983,995 936,360 15 to 19 years 2,178,135 1,115,845 1,062,295 20 to 24 years 2,187,450 1,108,775 1,078,670 25 to 29 years 2,169,590 1,077,275 1,092,315 30 to 34 years 2,162,905 1,058,810 1,104,095 35 to 39 years 2,173,930 1,064,200 1,109,735 40 to 44 years 2,324,875 1,141,720 1,183,155 45 to 49 years 2,675,130 1,318,715 1,356,420 50 to 54 years 2,658,965 1,309,030 1,349,940 55 to 59 years 2,340,635 1,147,300 1,193,335 60 to 64 years 2,052,670 1,002,690 1,049,985 65 to 69 years 1,521,715 738,010 783,705 70 to 74 years 1,153,065 543,435 609,630 75 to 79 years 922,700 417,945 504,755 80 to 84 years 702,070 291,085 410,985 85 years and over 645,515 208,300 437,215 Median age of the population 5 40.6 39.6 41.5 % of the population aged 15 and over 83.2 82.5 84.0 Source: Statistics Canada Based on the 2011 Canadian census there are 22,924,285 people in the workforce. By 2021, the scheduled Canadian census will identify approximately 23,881,865 people in the workforce. There is certainly going to be a change in the composition of the labour force by 2050. According to Mitra (2002, May) there were 18.4 million women in the workforce in 1950, and it jumped to 65.6 million in 2000. By the year 2050, there will be 91.5 million women in the workforce compared to 100.2 million men. In other word, there will be over 191.8 million people in the workforce with men accounting for approximately 52% and woman 48%.
  • 8. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 8 The percentage change amongst women between 1950 and 2000 is an incredible 256.8 percent change, while in the same time men changed 71.7%. Change amongst women in the workforce will slow down and grow and the same rate as men between 2000 and 2050. If the four components of slowdown in the growth of the labour force, changes in the gender structure of the labour force, changes in the age structure of the labour force and changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the labour force, leadership will need to adapt to these changes. The perception of plenty during the 4th wave The previous waves are easier to interpret because they already happened, unlike the future. Hindsight is 20/20. Toffler (1980) claims he was not the first one to use the analogy of waves to show civilizational shifts from one era to the next. Toffler mentions Norbert Elias describing it as a wave of advancing integration over several centuries (p.5). Toffler (1980) goes on to say, In 1837, a writer described the settlement of the American West in terms of successive waves first the pioneers, then the farmers, then the business interests, the third wave of migration (p.5). If we use the well reported and thoroughly documented period of 2008 as the ending point of the third wave, we can say we are in the infancy stage of the 4th wave. The 4th wave has no agreed name yet. However, there are a few suggestions. Dr. Kaku describes the 4th wave as perfect capitalism to include advanced technology such as artificial intelligence, robotics, infinite computing, ubiquitous broadband networks, digital manufacturing, nanomaterials, synthetic biology, while Diamandis and Kotler (2012) describe this period as Abundance. Diamandis and Kotler (2012) describe abundance (TheSasss1, 2011) as creating a world of possibility: a world where everyones days are spent dreaming and doing, not scrapping and scraping (p.13). Diamandis and Kotler have developed an abundance pyramid similar to the well known Maslows hierarchy of human needs. They present three levels, while Maslows model has five levels. There is more similarity than differences in the models.
  • 9. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 9 Exhibit 5 Health and Freedom Energy, education and information/communication Sufficient water, food and shelter Source: Diamandis and Kotler 2012 As Diamandis and Kotler (2012) explain, Over the past 150,000 years, Homo sapiens evolved in a world that was local and linear, but todays environment is global and exponential (p.34). The first three waves were local and linear, and the 4th wave is clearly global and exponential! Yunus (2008) publicly supports the concept of Globalization; however he appears cautious when he says, Globalization, as a general business principle, can bring more benefits to the poor than any alternative. But, without proper oversight and guidelines, globalization has the potential to be highly destructive (p.5). Globalization is here to stay. A project by the SUNY Levin Institute called Globalization 101 provides a learning web platform on numerous challenges and concerns around: Trade Environment Media Development Women Investment Technology
  • 10. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 10 Culture Migration Human rights IMF/World bank Energy Education Health International law Teachers can access the learning material for various purposes. There are many online resources that promote and support the idea of globalization. Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 157) identify what youth think successful leaders must develop in the expanding global workplace: Communicate a global vision Be technologically savvy Embrace an open minded leadership style Champion diversity (style, culture, and leadership) Display flexibility and respect towards employees Foster a corporate culture of teamwork Strengthen charisma Be ethical New knowledge Advanced technology The following information reflects my notes of new knowledge from viewing the Youtube video of Dr. Kaku (CUNYQueensborough ,2009, October 28). In 2030, a chip will cost .01. Where there is internet, there is prosperity. People will access the internet through a pair of glasses or contact lenses, which is augmented reality. The internet is the virtual library where anyone with internet access can read
  • 11. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 11 anything they want. Of course, by this time, the credibility of the internet has ascended. Cell phones will be a complete PC. Wall paper will be intelligent. People will engage their wall. The internet is female. During war times, the internet was to dominate the enemy. Today, the internet is female. They want to connect. To touch people. The internet began as a war fighting machine to a tool that connects. The computer constructs the office environment. The files are more valuable than computers because the computer will only cost pennies. The car will have no driver. GPS is the secret to driving the car. Traffic accidents, traffic jams can disappear. Health issues will disappear. The toilet will display everything about your health. The toilet will analyze proteins. Chips scattered throughout the bathroom. Complete medical examination. Genes can be read. Genes are equivalent owners manual. Organs can be reproduced. Today bone, skin, blood vessels can be grown in the lab. Shortly, other organs can be grown. Computer power can augment human life. Azimo is the first advanced Artificial intelligence. It takes six hours to walk across the room. Robots need to be programmed. Japan is the fastest aging population on earth. That is why Japan is building these robots to serve as nursing aids. Invisibility is possible with a microwave invisibility cloth. Meta-materials let things to be bent. Quantum teleportation is possible. Telepathy is coming faster than people think. A chip in the human brain will provide access and connection to the internet. Dreams may be photographed by a computer. In 50 years, there will be a star ship. Time and space may be bent. Dust clouds cover the raging black hole. Time travel is possible. There are four types of civilizations. Type 0 is present civilization. Type 1 controls the planets. Type 2 controls the entire stars. Type 3 controls the entire galaxy.
  • 12. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 12 Conclusion The idea of predictability is controversial. However, as Heijden (2005) indicated, If everything was predictable, there would be no room for strategizing. If nothing was predictable, strategizing would make no sense (p. 92). Society is in the early stages of the 4th wave. Leadership based on such concepts as open leadership (Li, 2010), and primal leadership (Goleman, 2002) are going to succeed. Exponential growth is responsible for advanced Technology. Exponential growth is just doubling numbers, where 1 becomes 2, 2 becomes 4 and 4 becomes 8 and so forth. Diamandis and Kotler (2012) stated, This astounding increase in computer power, speed, and memory, coupled with a concurrent drop in both price and size, is exponential change at work (p. 54). Technology enables an abundant life. People will now choose between reality and augmented reality in an infinite world.
  • 13. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 13 References Anderson, C. (2006). The long tail: Why the future of business is selling less of more. New York, NY: Hyperion Bennis, W. Spreitzer, G, and Cummings, T. (2001). The future of leadership. Todays top leadership thinkers speak to tomorrows leaders. San Francisco, CA: Jossey Bass. CUNYQueensborough (2009, October 28). The world in 2030 by Dr. Michio Kaku. Retrieved on August 8 from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=219YybX66MY Daft, R. (2008). The leadership experience. Mason, OH: South Western Cengage Learning. Dantzer, M. Ruth (2000). Leadership requirements in the 21st century: The perceptions of Canadian public sector leaders. Ph.D. Dissertation, Andrews University, United States -- Michigan. Retrieved July 31, 2012, from ABI/INFORM Global.(Publication No. AAT 9979881). Diamandis, P. & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York, NY: Free Press Drucker. P. (1985). Innovation and entrepreneurship. New York, NY: HarperCollins Publishers, Inc. Drucker, P. (1993). Post capitalist society. New York, NY: HarperCollins Publishers, Inc. Foot, D. (1998). Boom, bust and echo 2000. Toronto, Ontario: Macfarlane Walter & Ross.
  • 14. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 14 Forstater, M. (2007). Little book of big ideas: Economics. London, UK: Elwin Street Limited. Gates, W. (1999). Business at the speed of thought: Using a digital nervous system. New York, NY: Warner Books, Inc. Situfla, (2012), Michio Kaku The Fourth Wave @ Telefonica Leadership Conference 2012 in Miami FL. Retrieved on August 8, 2012 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OWLwXnhlFo Kielburger, C. and Kielburger, M. (2006). Me to We: Finding meaning in a material world. Mississauga, ON: John Wiley and Sons. Knowles, Malcolm. (1980). The Modern Practice of Adult Education: From Pedagogy to Andragogy. New York, NY: Cambridge Li, C. (2010). Open Leadership: How social technology can transform the way you lead. San Francisco, CA: Jossey - Bass Maynard, H., Jr, and Mehrtens, S. (1996). The Fourth Wave. San Francisco, CA: Berrett Koehler Publishers. Mitra Toossi. (2002, May). A century of change: The U.S. labor force, 1950-2050. Monthly Labor Review, 125(5), 15-28. Retrieved July 31, 2012, from ABI/INFORM Global. (Document ID: 162050391). Sirois, C. (2000). Organic management: Creating a culture of innovation. Toronto, Ontario: HarperCollins Canada. SUNY Levin Institute. (n.d) Globalization. Retrieved on August 8, 2012 from http://www.globalization101.org/teaching-tools/
  • 15. LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 15 Statistics Canada (n.d.) Retrieved on August 08, 2012 from http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp- pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=PR&Code1=01&Geo2=PR&Code2=0 &Data=Count&SearchText=canada&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All &Custom=&TABID=1 TEDGlobal. (2012, June). Don Tapscott: Four principles for the open world. Retrieved on August 9, 2012 from http://www.ted.com/talks/don_tapscott_four_principles_for_the_open_world_1.html Toffler, A. (1980). The third wave. New York, NY: Bantam Books. TheSasss1. (2011, June 27). Are We Ready For the Coming 'Age of Abundance?' - Dr. Michio Kaku (Full). Retrieved on August 8, 2012 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceEog1XS5OI&feature=related Yunus, M. (2007). Creating a world without poverty: Social business and the future of capitalism. New York, NY: Public Affairs.