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Thriving under
                 uncertainty with
                Discovery Kanban
                             London Lean Kanban Day
                                  March 2013

                           patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com
                                 @PatrickSteyaert




息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                       Thriving under uncertainty
Options and variation                                                                 2




   Option 1

      Effort = 300MD
      Most likely delivery = May 31
      Variation = 賊10 days

                                                         Deadline = May 15
   Option 2

      Effort = 300MD
      Most likely delivery = May 31
      Variation = 賊20 days




                              息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013            Thriving under uncertainty
Thriving under uncertainty                                                         3




 Plan perspective          Risk perspective                 Options perspective
 (Robust but fragile)           (Resilient)                       (Anti-fragile)

則р variation and        則р absorb variation and          則р thrive from disruption;
  disruption are not       tolerate disruption               variation can be
  tolerated very well      without collapsing                beneficial
                        Customers/ Users /
                        Stakeholders




                                   TEAM




                           FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY


                                息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013             Thriving under uncertainty
4




Pains and gains in the history of projects

Absorbing variation - Classes of Service

     Thriving on variation - Options

           Kanban variations




                 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013   Thriving under uncertainty
A calamitous history of                                                                       5
projects*
Project            Cost overrun             Project              Actual traffic
Channel tunnel 80%                                               as percentage
UK-FR                                                            of forecast

resund         70%                         Channel tunnel 18%
access link, DE                             UK-FR

Great belt link,   54%                      Miami metro,         15%
DE                                          USA

resund coast- 26%                          Denver               55%
to-coast                                    International
                                            Airport, USA
 Conclusion: dont trust
                                            Conclusion: dont trust
 cost estimates
                                            usage forecasts


                               *Source: Megaprojects and risk, an anatomy of ambition, Bent
                                     Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, 2003
                             息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                     Thriving under uncertainty
IT projects                                                                                         6
ps of issues that cause most project failures.

                                      IT projects >$15 million1
                                                                   2      45%



 ssues                                Bene鍖ts shortfall                 56%
                         Delivering large-scale IT projects on time, on budget, and on
                             value, Michael Bloch, Sven Blumberg, and J端rgen Laartz




  3 Skill issuesof
     17 percent     IT projects go so bad that they can
                             4 Execution issues
         threaten the very existence of the company           (cost
         overruns of +200% and schedule slippage of nearly 70%)
                         Double Whammy  How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and
                          Screwed by Political Intent, Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Aug
                                                                                       2011.
   6
                                        息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                         Thriving under uncertainty
Delusions and deception

    則р Imperfect forecasting techniques and
      inadequate data

7
    則р Planning fallacy & optimism bias


    則р Strategic misrepresentation and
      asymmetric information




       息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013        Thriving under uncertainty
How projects are sold                                                  8


Gains/Losses
f(X)




                                              Gain           Convexity




                                                       Unknown
                                                          X
        Pain




               Gain more than pain
                   息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013          Thriving under uncertainty
9




息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013   Thriving under uncertainty
How projects turn out in practice                                         10


Gains/Losses
f(X)



        Gain
                                                      Unknown
                                                         X


                                               Pain




                                                            Concavity
               Pain more than gain
                    息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013          Thriving under uncertainty
11
Variation and disruption

則р Order of   magnitude (size)                 則р Political intervention
則р Customer                                    則р Interrupt work
則р Team                                        則р Technical problems
則р Policies                                    則р Changing requirements
則р Technology                                  則р Resources not available
則р Environment                                 則р Environmental problem(s)
則р                                            則р 




                                  息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Thriving under uncertainty
Amplification  pain                                                    12


                     Changes



    Prioritization


   Requirements                                   Product
                                     Work




                                   Failure
                                   load /
                                   Rework




                       息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013     Thriving under uncertainty
13
Irreversibility & Lock-in




                   息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013   Thriving under uncertainty
Complex projects                                                                      14


How they are planned                              How they turn out




     Convexity                                        Concavity




                       息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Thriving under uncertainty
Absorbing variation                                                                15




 Plan perspective          Risk perspective                 Options perspective
 (Robust but fragile)           (Resilient)                       (Anti-fragile)

則р variation and        則р absorb variation and          則р thrive from disruption;
  disruption are not       tolerate disruption               variation can be
  tolerated very well      without collapsing                beneficial
                        Customers/ Users /
                        Stakeholders




                                   TEAM




                           FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY


                                息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013             Thriving under uncertainty
Kanban systems  Less pain                                        16



  Variable
 capability                Variable
                           demand

   Capability
                Bottlenecks
                Uncertainty                Demand
                Loopbacks




                Kanban

                息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013      Accredited Kanban Training
Cost of delay                                                               17




                                  EXPEDITE

                                                    Cost/Value

                            FIXED DATE




                STANDARD


INTANGIBLE




                                                x           time
                     息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013           Thriving under uncertainty
Classes of service - Minimize Cost                                                                              18
       of delay while retaining flexibility
      Cost of delay        Urgent                               Respond                          Policy
則р critical and immediate                     EXPEDITE                               則р will be pulled immediately
  cost of delay                                                                         by a qualified resource



則р cost of
          delay goes up                      FIXED DATE                               則р will be pulled based on
                                                                                        risk assessment
                             Cost of delay
  significantly after




                                                                        Flexibility
  deadline                                                                              (delivering on time)

則р cost of
          delay is shallow                    STANDARD                                則р will use first in, first out
  but accelerates before                                                                (FIFO) queuing approach to
  leveling out                                                                          prioritize pull


則р cost of
          delay may be                       INTANGIBLE                               則р will be pulled through the
  significant but is not                                                                system in an ad hoc
  incurred until much                                                                   fashion
  later
                       Important                              Anticipate
                                             息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                              Thriving under uncertainty
Capacity allocation across classes of                                           19
service

                                      EXPEDITE

              Expedite        +1 = +5%
                                                        Cost/Value
                Fixed
                date           4 = 20%
                               FIXED DATE

              Standard         8 = 50%

              Intangib
                         le    6 = 30%
             STANDARD


INTANGIBLE




                                                    x           time
                         息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013           Thriving under uncertainty
Thriving under uncertainty                                                        20




 Plan perspective          Risk perspective                 Options perspective
 (Robust but fragile)           (Resilient)                      (Anti-fragile)

則р variation and        則р absorb variation and          則р thrive from disruption;
  disruption are not       tolerate disruption               variation can be
  tolerated very well      without collapsing                beneficial
                        Customers/ Users /
                        Stakeholders




                                   TEAM




                           FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY


                                息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013            Thriving under uncertainty
Amplification of gains                                               21


                  Opportunities



    Resources


   Requirements                                Product
                                  Work




                                User
                             feedback/
                              Revenue




                    息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013     Thriving under uncertainty
Opportunity for learning                                                               22


             Risk/Options                                       Cost/Value



Probes          Enablers       Table stakes               Exceptionals
Is there a      Can we build   What is                    Protect & exploit
need?           it?            essential?                 existing value




                                                                         time
                               息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013              Thriving under uncertainty
Never commit early (unless you                                                              23

     know why)
Potential
 option                          Validate
                  PROBE


            Potential
             option                                Validate

                          ENABLERS


                           Potential                                      Validate
                            option
                                              TABLE STAKES


                                                              Potential
                                                               option
                                                                           EXCEPTIONAL

                                   息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                  Thriving under uncertainty
Exercising options                                                  24




   Potential                                Exercised
    Option               Option
                                             Option




                 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013       Thriving under uncertainty
25
Options expire
                               則р Expedite  critical and immediate
                                   cost of delay
                                    竪 will be pulled immediately by
                                    a qualified resource

                               則р Fixed date  cost of delay goes
                                   up significantly after deadline
                                    竪 will be pulled based on risk
                                    assessment (delivering on time)

                               則р Standard  cost of delay is
                                   shallow but accelerates before
                                   leveling out
                                    竪 will use first in, first out (FIFO)
                                    queuing approach to prioritize pull

                               則р Intangible  cost of delay may be
                                   significant but is not incurred until
                                   much later; important but not
                                   urgent
                                    竪 will be pulled through the
                                    system in an ad hoc fashion


                 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                        Thriving under uncertainty
Options have value                                                       26


Gains/Losses
f(X)




                                              Gain           Convexity




                                                       Unknown
                                                          X
        Pain




               Gain more than pain
                   息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013          Thriving under uncertainty
Options - Maximize learning,
                                                                                                                                  27
     minimize cost of failure
                           Option                                            Exploration
則р Fragmented functionality,                             PROBE                                         則р Explore customers
  Lo-Fi implementation                                                                                    and needs




                                                                                 Learning opportunity
則р Minimally coherent end-                             ENABLERS                                        則р Explore feasibility
  to-end functionality                                                                                    and critical quality

                                Cost of failure
  showing critical quality

則р End-to-end functionality                         TABLE STAKES                                       則р Explore what is
  with standard quality                                                                                   essential for
                                                                                                          exploitation


則р Broad and detailed                               EXCEPTIONAL                                        則р Protect & exploit
  functionality, Hi-Fi                                                                                    existing value
  implementation
                         Commitment                                          Exploitation
                                                  息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                                    Thriving under uncertainty
Exploration versus exploitation                                                             28



Potential
 option                          Validate
                  PROBE
                                                                    Exploitation
            Potential
             option                                Validate

                          ENABLERS


                           Potential
   Exploration              option                                        Validate

                                              TABLE STAKES


                                                              Potential
                                                               option
                                                                           EXCEPTIONAL

                                   息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                  Thriving under uncertainty
29
   Real options*

    An option is the right to do
    something but not the obligation



    則р Options have value
    則р Options expire
    則р Never commit early (unless you
      know why)




*Ref: Chris Matts & Olav Maassen

                                  息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013   Thriving under uncertainty
The knowledge discovery process                                                             30

  Narrative,
fragmented,                    Working product                           Decision to
  possibly                       (i.e. probe,                            dampen or
 conflicting                     enabler,)                               amplify




   Potential                             Exercise             Validate          Abandoned
                      Option
    option                                option               option           / Continue




               Coherent,                                      Feedback
                shared                                        (e.g. user
                concept                                       feedback)



   Discovery front-end            Development                  Discovery back-end
     Forming hypotheses                                         Validating hypotheses
                                   息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                Thriving under uncertainty
Discovery Kanban Board                                                                             31

                WIP limits express exploration  exploitation balance
                                         Exploration                Exploitation
Legend
Expedite            Potential       Option               Exercise               Validate             Abandon /
                    option                               option                 option               Continue
  Fixed
  date                              3/3/9/4                1/1/5/2             1/1/4/2
                Probe
Standard                              probe                                                             probe
                                         28/3
Intangib        Enabler
           le                                                                 enabler
                                                                                           Intangible
                                Fixed date probe
                                                                                           probe
                                                                                                                        F
                Table           Demo for tradeshow
                                                             table                         R&D
                                                                                                                        L
                stakes          on 28/3
                                                            stakes                                                      O
                                                                                                                        W
                Exceptional

                                       Expedite table stakes
                                       Overdue regulatory                  Standard enabler
                                       development                         Framework development

                                                              FLOW
                                                息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Thriving under uncertainty
Kanban variations                                                                                         32


      Delivery Kanban                                          Discovery Kanban

1.   Visualize  work                            1.          Visualize  options

2.   Limit work in progress                      2.          Minimal options / maximum un-
                                                               validated assumptions
3.   Manage Flow  flow of work
                                                  3.          Manage Flow  flow of customer/
4.   Make Process Policies Explicit                          user acquisition
      work policies (e.g. in terms of
      cost of delay)                              4.          Make Process Policies Explicit 
                                                               option policies (e.g. in terms of
5.   Implement Feedback Loops  at                            cost of failure)
      workflow, inter-workflow and
      organizational levels                       5.          Implement Feedback Loops 
                                                               customer feedback loops
6.   Improve Collaboratively, Evolve
      Experimentally (using models/               6.          Improve Collaboratively, Evolve
      scientific method)                                       Experimentally (using models/
                                                               scientific method)
                                    息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                          Thriving under uncertainty
Not just for start-ups

     則р Product development (mature product)

33
     則р Business-IT programmes


     則р Business transformation


     則р Lean agile coaching



        息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013      Thriving under uncertainty
Thriving under uncertainty                                                         34




 Plan perspective          Risk perspective                 Options perspective
 (Robust but fragile)           (Resilient)                       (Anti-fragile)

則р variation and        則р absorb variation and          則р thrive from disruption;
  disruption are not       tolerate disruption               variation can be
  tolerated very well      without collapsing                beneficial
                        Customers/ Users /
                        Stakeholders




                                   TEAM




                           FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY


                                息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013             Thriving under uncertainty
Inspiration                                                                   35




                                    Knowledge discovery process:

                                         http://alistair.cockburn.us/
                                         The+Design+as+Knowledge
                                         +Acquisition+Movement




              息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                    Thriving under uncertainty
Thank You
                 patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com
                            @PatrickSteyaert




息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013             Thriving under uncertainty
Classifying features                                                              37




  Epic           Epic                               Epic


 Story           Story   Story           Story      Story   Story    Story


 Story   Story           Story                      Story   Story

                 Story                                      Story
 Story   Story

                 Story
 Story

         Story                                      Story             Story




                         息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Anti-fragile projects
Classifying features - probes                                                     38




  Epic           Epic                               Epic


 Story           Story   Story           Story      Story   Story    Story


 Story   Story           Story                      Story   Story

                 Story                                      Story
 Story   Story

                 Story
 Story

         Story                                      Story             Story




                         息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Anti-fragile projects
Classifying features - enablers                                                   39




  Epic           Epic                               Epic



Enablers
 Story           Story   Story           Story      Story   Story    Story


 Story   Story           Story                      Story   Story

                 Story                                      Story
 Story   Story

                 Story
 Story

         Story                                      Story             Story




                         息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Anti-fragile projects
Classifying features  table stakes                                               40




  Epic           Epic                               Epic



Enablers
 Story           Story   Story           Story      Story   Story    Story


 Story   Story           Story                      Story   Story
Table stakes
                 Story                                      Story
 Story   Story

                 Story
 Story

         Story                                      Story             Story




                         息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Anti-fragile projects
Classifying features  exceptionals                                               41




  Epic           Epic                               Epic



Enablers
 Story           Story   Story           Story      Story   Story    Story


 Story   Story           Story                      Story   Story
Table stakes
                 Story                                      Story
 Story   Story

                 Story
 Story
Exceptionals                                        Story             Story
         Story



                         息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013                   Anti-fragile projects

More Related Content

LLKD13 thriving under uncertainty

  • 1. Thriving under uncertainty with Discovery Kanban London Lean Kanban Day March 2013 patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @PatrickSteyaert 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 2. Options and variation 2 Option 1 Effort = 300MD Most likely delivery = May 31 Variation = 賊10 days Deadline = May 15 Option 2 Effort = 300MD Most likely delivery = May 31 Variation = 賊20 days 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 3. Thriving under uncertainty 3 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) 則р variation and 則р absorb variation and 則р thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 4. 4 Pains and gains in the history of projects Absorbing variation - Classes of Service Thriving on variation - Options Kanban variations 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 5. A calamitous history of 5 projects* Project Cost overrun Project Actual traffic Channel tunnel 80% as percentage UK-FR of forecast resund 70% Channel tunnel 18% access link, DE UK-FR Great belt link, 54% Miami metro, 15% DE USA resund coast- 26% Denver 55% to-coast International Airport, USA Conclusion: dont trust Conclusion: dont trust cost estimates usage forecasts *Source: Megaprojects and risk, an anatomy of ambition, Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, 2003 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 6. IT projects 6 ps of issues that cause most project failures. IT projects >$15 million1 2 45% ssues Bene鍖ts shortfall 56% Delivering large-scale IT projects on time, on budget, and on value, Michael Bloch, Sven Blumberg, and J端rgen Laartz 3 Skill issuesof 17 percent IT projects go so bad that they can 4 Execution issues threaten the very existence of the company (cost overruns of +200% and schedule slippage of nearly 70%) Double Whammy How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent, Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Aug 2011. 6 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 7. Delusions and deception 則р Imperfect forecasting techniques and inadequate data 7 則р Planning fallacy & optimism bias 則р Strategic misrepresentation and asymmetric information 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 8. How projects are sold 8 Gains/Losses f(X) Gain Convexity Unknown X Pain Gain more than pain 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 9. 9 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 10. How projects turn out in practice 10 Gains/Losses f(X) Gain Unknown X Pain Concavity Pain more than gain 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 11. 11 Variation and disruption 則р Order of magnitude (size) 則р Political intervention 則р Customer 則р Interrupt work 則р Team 則р Technical problems 則р Policies 則р Changing requirements 則р Technology 則р Resources not available 則р Environment 則р Environmental problem(s) 則р 則р 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 12. Amplification pain 12 Changes Prioritization Requirements Product Work Failure load / Rework 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 13. 13 Irreversibility & Lock-in 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 14. Complex projects 14 How they are planned How they turn out Convexity Concavity 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 15. Absorbing variation 15 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) 則р variation and 則р absorb variation and 則р thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 16. Kanban systems Less pain 16 Variable capability Variable demand Capability Bottlenecks Uncertainty Demand Loopbacks Kanban 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Accredited Kanban Training
  • 17. Cost of delay 17 EXPEDITE Cost/Value FIXED DATE STANDARD INTANGIBLE x time 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 18. Classes of service - Minimize Cost 18 of delay while retaining flexibility Cost of delay Urgent Respond Policy 則р critical and immediate EXPEDITE 則р will be pulled immediately cost of delay by a qualified resource 則р cost of delay goes up FIXED DATE 則р will be pulled based on risk assessment Cost of delay significantly after Flexibility deadline (delivering on time) 則р cost of delay is shallow STANDARD 則р will use first in, first out but accelerates before (FIFO) queuing approach to leveling out prioritize pull 則р cost of delay may be INTANGIBLE 則р will be pulled through the significant but is not system in an ad hoc incurred until much fashion later Important Anticipate 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 19. Capacity allocation across classes of 19 service EXPEDITE Expedite +1 = +5% Cost/Value Fixed date 4 = 20% FIXED DATE Standard 8 = 50% Intangib le 6 = 30% STANDARD INTANGIBLE x time 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 20. Thriving under uncertainty 20 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) 則р variation and 則р absorb variation and 則р thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 21. Amplification of gains 21 Opportunities Resources Requirements Product Work User feedback/ Revenue 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 22. Opportunity for learning 22 Risk/Options Cost/Value Probes Enablers Table stakes Exceptionals Is there a Can we build What is Protect & exploit need? it? essential? existing value time 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 23. Never commit early (unless you 23 know why) Potential option Validate PROBE Potential option Validate ENABLERS Potential Validate option TABLE STAKES Potential option EXCEPTIONAL 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 24. Exercising options 24 Potential Exercised Option Option Option 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 25. 25 Options expire 則р Expedite critical and immediate cost of delay 竪 will be pulled immediately by a qualified resource 則р Fixed date cost of delay goes up significantly after deadline 竪 will be pulled based on risk assessment (delivering on time) 則р Standard cost of delay is shallow but accelerates before leveling out 竪 will use first in, first out (FIFO) queuing approach to prioritize pull 則р Intangible cost of delay may be significant but is not incurred until much later; important but not urgent 竪 will be pulled through the system in an ad hoc fashion 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 26. Options have value 26 Gains/Losses f(X) Gain Convexity Unknown X Pain Gain more than pain 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 27. Options - Maximize learning, 27 minimize cost of failure Option Exploration 則р Fragmented functionality, PROBE 則р Explore customers Lo-Fi implementation and needs Learning opportunity 則р Minimally coherent end- ENABLERS 則р Explore feasibility to-end functionality and critical quality Cost of failure showing critical quality 則р End-to-end functionality TABLE STAKES 則р Explore what is with standard quality essential for exploitation 則р Broad and detailed EXCEPTIONAL 則р Protect & exploit functionality, Hi-Fi existing value implementation Commitment Exploitation 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 28. Exploration versus exploitation 28 Potential option Validate PROBE Exploitation Potential option Validate ENABLERS Potential Exploration option Validate TABLE STAKES Potential option EXCEPTIONAL 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 29. 29 Real options* An option is the right to do something but not the obligation 則р Options have value 則р Options expire 則р Never commit early (unless you know why) *Ref: Chris Matts & Olav Maassen 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 30. The knowledge discovery process 30 Narrative, fragmented, Working product Decision to possibly (i.e. probe, dampen or conflicting enabler,) amplify Potential Exercise Validate Abandoned Option option option option / Continue Coherent, Feedback shared (e.g. user concept feedback) Discovery front-end Development Discovery back-end Forming hypotheses Validating hypotheses 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 31. Discovery Kanban Board 31 WIP limits express exploration exploitation balance Exploration Exploitation Legend Expedite Potential Option Exercise Validate Abandon / option option option Continue Fixed date 3/3/9/4 1/1/5/2 1/1/4/2 Probe Standard probe probe 28/3 Intangib Enabler le enabler Intangible Fixed date probe probe F Table Demo for tradeshow table R&D L stakes on 28/3 stakes O W Exceptional Expedite table stakes Overdue regulatory Standard enabler development Framework development FLOW 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 32. Kanban variations 32 Delivery Kanban Discovery Kanban 1. Visualize work 1. Visualize options 2. Limit work in progress 2. Minimal options / maximum un- validated assumptions 3. Manage Flow flow of work 3. Manage Flow flow of customer/ 4. Make Process Policies Explicit user acquisition work policies (e.g. in terms of cost of delay) 4. Make Process Policies Explicit option policies (e.g. in terms of 5. Implement Feedback Loops at cost of failure) workflow, inter-workflow and organizational levels 5. Implement Feedback Loops customer feedback loops 6. Improve Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally (using models/ 6. Improve Collaboratively, Evolve scientific method) Experimentally (using models/ scientific method) 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 33. Not just for start-ups 則р Product development (mature product) 33 則р Business-IT programmes 則р Business transformation 則р Lean agile coaching 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 34. Thriving under uncertainty 34 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) 則р variation and 則р absorb variation and 則р thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 35. Inspiration 35 Knowledge discovery process: http://alistair.cockburn.us/ The+Design+as+Knowledge +Acquisition+Movement 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 36. Thank You patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @PatrickSteyaert 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  • 37. Classifying features 37 Epic Epic Epic Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  • 38. Classifying features - probes 38 Epic Epic Epic Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  • 39. Classifying features - enablers 39 Epic Epic Epic Enablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  • 40. Classifying features table stakes 40 Epic Epic Epic Enablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Table stakes Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  • 41. Classifying features exceptionals 41 Epic Epic Epic Enablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Table stakes Story Story Story Story Story Story Exceptionals Story Story Story 息 Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects