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Looney's winter weather

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Craig Looney
Craig Looney

This document provides Craig Looney's 6th Annual Winter Outlook for the 2013 season from November 1st to January 31st. It predicts a wetter than normal winter for the Southeast US due to the formation of a weak El Nino, bringing the potential for snow storms to Richmond in December and January. Total snowfall predictions for Richmond through January are provided. The next update will be provided on November 1st.

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All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment Craig Looney’s 6th Annual Winter Outlook I 2013 Season (Nov 1st to January 31st ) Note: -NAO blocks major storms from going out to sea so that’s what you want for snow. (Up in Greenland) +NAO (had all 2011) sends systems away. Next Update: November 1st
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment  CPC has issued an El Nino Watch on 10/4/2012.  ENSO conditions remain neutral as of 10/9/2012 .  ENSO-Neutral to weak El Nino expected November to March 2013.  Possible El Nino strengthening is possible over the next couple of months.  NOAA 90-day outlook focuses on a wet Southeast as of 9/30/2012 As of 10/11/12, conditions are very ripe for a dramatically different winter than last year. (Only in the East. Very warm in the West.) 2
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment That typically means a snowy winter on the East Coast. We still need the NAO and Arctic air but the moisture and lack of a dominate pump of warm air means this is the winter you want if you are a snow lover. The Southwest and Rockies should have a better winter than last with average to above average rain and snowfall. 83% likely hood as of 10/11/12. The other option is we will remain neutral, in which the winter could be either cold or warm. 3
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Sept 2012). • Nearly all of the models predict El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, with most models predicting El Niño to continue into December-February 2012-13. Weakening to Neutral end of 2013. (2013-2014 could be warm) EL NINO LA NINA
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 5 Equal comparisons to Snowy Richmond 2009 to this year JULY-SEPTEMBER
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 6 3% Strong El Nino Mild Winter (+NAO) Winter 2012-2013 Prediction
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 7 Nov 1st Nov 8th Nov 22nd Nov 15th Average Temperature Forecast (Not real averages based on past) Precipitation Type Forecast (if precipitating) 63 65 60 57 68 66 55 60 60 53 49 Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Forecast: Above Average temperatures for most if not all of November. Cold fronts can bring 1-2 day highs in the 40’s before a warm up. Average precipitation amounts. 0% winter precipitation. Total Snowfall: 0.0 inches Conditions not favorable for major winter storm.
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 8 Dec 1st Dec 8th Dec 22nd Dec 15th 47 45 35 44 50 40 38 36 45 50 45 Weak El Nino forms in the Pacific bringing cool and wet weather to the Southeast up to Eastern NC. Richmond on typical rain/snow line. Potential winter storm Dec 4th-6th and 15th-18th. Expected total snowfall: 5.7 inches *Major winter coastal storm*: 16% occuring (6-10 inches on top) (With +NAO these numbers MUCH lower) Mix? Snow? Rain Rain Snow? Mix? Rain Rain
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 9 Jan 1st Jan 8th Jan 22nd Jan 15th Weak El Nino builds and will bring cold and rainy/snowy weather to the Southeast. Richmond snowier depending on El Nino strength. As of now perfect weakness likely. Too much gain or neutral limits winter weather. Likely 2-3 snow bursts. Expected total snowfall: 14 inches *Major winter coastal storm* : 34% occuring (12-15 inches on top) (With +NAO these numbers MUCH lower) 41 40 33 39 47 40 45 36 43 47 43 Mix? Snow? Snow? Mix? Mix? Snow? Rain Mix?
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 10 Next Update: November 1st (February update and total winter snowfall through March 1)
All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment  Picture sources  http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/2012-2013-winter-outlook-Above- average-temperatures near-normal-snowfall  http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task =viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 11 http://geoea.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/0912- combine-sst.png

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Looney's winter weather

  • 1. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment Craig Looney’s 6th Annual Winter Outlook I 2013 Season (Nov 1st to January 31st ) Note: -NAO blocks major storms from going out to sea so that’s what you want for snow. (Up in Greenland) +NAO (had all 2011) sends systems away. Next Update: November 1st
  • 2. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment  CPC has issued an El Nino Watch on 10/4/2012.  ENSO conditions remain neutral as of 10/9/2012 .  ENSO-Neutral to weak El Nino expected November to March 2013.  Possible El Nino strengthening is possible over the next couple of months.  NOAA 90-day outlook focuses on a wet Southeast as of 9/30/2012 As of 10/11/12, conditions are very ripe for a dramatically different winter than last year. (Only in the East. Very warm in the West.) 2
  • 3. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment That typically means a snowy winter on the East Coast. We still need the NAO and Arctic air but the moisture and lack of a dominate pump of warm air means this is the winter you want if you are a snow lover. The Southwest and Rockies should have a better winter than last with average to above average rain and snowfall. 83% likely hood as of 10/11/12. The other option is we will remain neutral, in which the winter could be either cold or warm. 3
  • 4. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Sept 2012). • Nearly all of the models predict El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, with most models predicting El Niño to continue into December-February 2012-13. Weakening to Neutral end of 2013. (2013-2014 could be warm) EL NINO LA NINA
  • 5. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 5 Equal comparisons to Snowy Richmond 2009 to this year JULY-SEPTEMBER
  • 6. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 6 3% Strong El Nino Mild Winter (+NAO) Winter 2012-2013 Prediction
  • 7. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 7 Nov 1st Nov 8th Nov 22nd Nov 15th Average Temperature Forecast (Not real averages based on past) Precipitation Type Forecast (if precipitating) 63 65 60 57 68 66 55 60 60 53 49 Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Forecast: Above Average temperatures for most if not all of November. Cold fronts can bring 1-2 day highs in the 40’s before a warm up. Average precipitation amounts. 0% winter precipitation. Total Snowfall: 0.0 inches Conditions not favorable for major winter storm.
  • 8. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 8 Dec 1st Dec 8th Dec 22nd Dec 15th 47 45 35 44 50 40 38 36 45 50 45 Weak El Nino forms in the Pacific bringing cool and wet weather to the Southeast up to Eastern NC. Richmond on typical rain/snow line. Potential winter storm Dec 4th-6th and 15th-18th. Expected total snowfall: 5.7 inches *Major winter coastal storm*: 16% occuring (6-10 inches on top) (With +NAO these numbers MUCH lower) Mix? Snow? Rain Rain Snow? Mix? Rain Rain
  • 9. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 9 Jan 1st Jan 8th Jan 22nd Jan 15th Weak El Nino builds and will bring cold and rainy/snowy weather to the Southeast. Richmond snowier depending on El Nino strength. As of now perfect weakness likely. Too much gain or neutral limits winter weather. Likely 2-3 snow bursts. Expected total snowfall: 14 inches *Major winter coastal storm* : 34% occuring (12-15 inches on top) (With +NAO these numbers MUCH lower) 41 40 33 39 47 40 45 36 43 47 43 Mix? Snow? Snow? Mix? Mix? Snow? Rain Mix?
  • 10. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment 10 Next Update: November 1st (February update and total winter snowfall through March 1)
  • 11. All content is intellectual property of Clear Channel Media and Entertainment  Picture sources  http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/2012-2013-winter-outlook-Above- average-temperatures near-normal-snowfall  http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task =viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 11 http://geoea.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/0912- combine-sst.png