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P4:
speaks the truth out of times. A die is tossed. He reports that there is a
six. What is the chance that actually there was six.
Solution:
Let us define the following events:
Speaks truth ; tells a lie ; represents a six.
Form the given data, we have
,
By Bayes theorem, the required probability that actually there was six is
and
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M 1.5 p4.s

  • 1. P4: speaks the truth out of times. A die is tossed. He reports that there is a six. What is the chance that actually there was six. Solution: Let us define the following events: Speaks truth ; tells a lie ; represents a six. Form the given data, we have , By Bayes theorem, the required probability that actually there was six is and