Overview of forecasting tools used for planning by DEA
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This document summarizes an overview presentation given by Kristoffer Steen Andersen of the Danish Energy Agency on forecasting tools used for energy planning in Denmark. It introduces short and medium-term forecasting using the Danish Energy Outlook model, and long-term planning using the Energy System Scenarios and IntERACT models. The presentation outlines Denmark's energy policy goals for 2020 and 2035, including reducing energy consumption and increasing renewable energy. It also describes how the various models are used to assess the technical and economic feasibility of long-term energy systems and policies.
Overview of forecasting tools used for planning by DEA
- 1. Welcome to the ETSAP meeting 2014 in Copenhagen Kristoffer Steen Andersen Advisor, Danish Energy Agency ksa@ens.dk
- 2. Overview of forecasting tools used for planning by DEA ETSAP meeting Kristoffer Steen Andersen Advisor, Danish Energy Agency ksa@ens.dk http://www.energinet.dk/Flash/Forside/UK/index.html
- 4. Summary energy statistics 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 PJ Energy production (PJ) Gross energy consumption (PJ) Renwable energy (PJ) *Note that data for 2013 reflects preliminary energy statistics
- 5. Plan of talk Danish Energy Policy Short and medium term forecasts Danish Energy Outlook Long term planning tools Energy System Scenarios IntERACT: Economy Wide Impact Assessments
- 6. Danish energy policy Agreement on energy policy from 2012 2020 Principle policy goals i. 12 % reduction in gross energy consumption in 2020 compared to 2006 ii. 50 % of electricity consumption supplied by wind power in 2020 iii. more than 35% of final energy consumption supplied from renewable energy sources in 2020. iv. Heat & power supply entirely from renewable resources in 2035 (no coal from 2030) Long term goal Denmark fossil fuel free in 2050
- 7. Plan of talk Danish Energy Policy Short and medium term forecasts Danish Energy Outlook Long term planning tools Energy System Scenarios IntERACT: Economy Wide Impact Assessments
- 8. Danish Energy Outlook 10-15 year frozen-policy forecast on energy use, power production and GHG emissions Dedicated modelling setup Used for short and medium term forecast Policy monitoring and planning Basis for impact assessments of new policy: - Government revenue - Potential growth effects
- 9. Plan of talk Danish Energy Policy Short and medium term forecasts Danish Energy Outlook Long term planning tools Energy System Scenarios IntERACT: Economy Wide Impact Assessments
- 10. Plan of talk Danish Energy Policy Short and medium term forecasts Danish Energy Outlook Long term planning tools Energy System Scenarios IntERACT: Economy Wide Impact Assessments
- 11. IntERACT TIMES-DK energy system model General Equilibrium Model Demand for energy services and economic growth Prices of energy services Investments needed IntERACTMODEL www.ens.dk/interact
- 12. Long term policy planning in DEA Modelling setup Is the system technical possible? What does the system cost? Policies required to achieve the system? Economy wide impacts Energy Outlook Yes No No No Energy Systems Scenarios Yes Yes No No IntERACT (TIMES-DK+CGE) Yes Yes Yes Yes
- 13. Thank you for your attention - wish you a pleasant stay in Copenhagen