Moral Decision-Making under Radical Uncertainty
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The document discusses different approaches to decision making under uncertainty, including intuitive, analytical, and principled approaches. It analyzes case studies from 14 senior managers who described important business decisions with both satisfactory and unsatisfactory outcomes. The case studies are grouped into categories like hurt feelings, probing, consultative, analytical, and idealizations. The document suggests that while intuition and enthusiasm can feel good, a more balanced consideration of pros and cons through analysis may ultimately lead to better decisions, especially for important business decisions. It also advocates discovering one's moral compass as a reasonable approach.
![We were so traumatised by the
previous experience [they had to
fi
re the whole sales department]
that we decided to outsource the
sales process this time.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/thesis-220706080625-5ec8d21f/85/Moral-Decision-Making-under-Radical-Uncertainty-19-320.jpg)
![I thought this was the only
place in [country] where I can
really study graphic design.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/thesis-220706080625-5ec8d21f/85/Moral-Decision-Making-under-Radical-Uncertainty-28-320.jpg)
![Everybody abandoned this guy
[the startup founder] so surely
I must support him.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/thesis-220706080625-5ec8d21f/85/Moral-Decision-Making-under-Radical-Uncertainty-31-320.jpg)
![We won't become the [great]
organisation we want to become
with this [toxic] person on board.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/thesis-220706080625-5ec8d21f/85/Moral-Decision-Making-under-Radical-Uncertainty-32-320.jpg)
Moral Decision-Making under Radical Uncertainty
- 2. All of my best decisions in business and in life have been made with heart, intuition, guts... not analysis. Je ff Bezos CEO Amazon
- 3. What about his worst decisions?
- 4. Intuitively Analytically Best 23 0 Worst ? ?
- 6. Decision styles and outcomes: Analytical Intuitive r=+.11 r=.09 Phillips et al (2015)
- 8. Risk Uncertainty Quanti fi able Not quanti fi able
- 10. Uncertainty Importance Logic Calculations Narratives Divination Obvious Complicated Complex Chaotic
- 11. Uncertainty Importance Logic Calculations Narratives Divination Obvious Complicated Complex Chaotic
- 12. ? What might individual narratives about important business decisions reveal?
- 13. 14 Senior managers in IT, Biotech and Fintech
- 14. Tell me about an important business decision which already has an outcome, either satisfactory or not
- 15. Organisational structure 10% Private matters 16% Hiring, firing, promotion 23% Business strategy 23% Investments 29%
- 16. 43 Cases in total, 29 positive and 14 negative
- 17. 6 groups
- 18. 0 | 2 Hurt feelings Satisfied | Dissatisfied
- 19. We were so traumatised by the previous experience [they had to fi re the whole sales department] that we decided to outsource the sales process this time.
- 20. My objections to the merger werent taken into the account, so I distanced myself from the M&A process.
- 21. 6 | 0 Probing Satisfied | Dissatisfied
- 22. We were so scared by the previous experience that we decided to move really slowly with transformation.
- 23. 4 | 0 Consultative Satisfied | Dissatisfied
- 24. At some point my therapist told me: This is your responsibility, nobody else is going to accept the responsibility.
- 25. 4 | 1 Analytical Satisfied | Dissatisfied
- 26. I sat down and created a huge map with lots of options. Gradually, I eliminated most of them.
- 27. 1 | 10 Idealisations Satisfied | Dissatisfied
- 28. I thought this was the only place in [country] where I can really study graphic design.
- 29. I thought they were amazing guys. And I still think they are great in their own way but I would have never expected this amount of irresponsibility and incompetence.
- 30. 15 | 0 Principled Satisfied | Dissatisfied
- 31. Everybody abandoned this guy [the startup founder] so surely I must support him.
- 32. We won't become the [great] organisation we want to become with this [toxic] person on board.
- 33. Honesty is an asset.
- 35. What is the best way to make strategic business decisions under uncertainty, is it intuitive or rational?
- 36. Intuition
- 37. intuition Moral
- 39. Defining the problem Generating alternatives Coming to a decision
- 40. Defining the problem Identifying criteria Generating alternatives Coming to a decision
- 41. Is this a morally good thing to do?
- 42. 1. Dont equate emotions with intuition, being a hostage to your emotions is not a good idea 2. Enthusiasm feels great, more balanced pros and cons create uncomfortable ambivalence but ultimately lead to better decisions 3. Moral compass is not a way to predict the future but morally virtuous decisions are seldom regretted 4. Discovering ones moral compass seems like a reasonable thing to do To conclude:
- 43. Do what you must, come what may. Balvdin IV King of Jerusalem