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Nifty technical outlook(vol 4) dbfs securities ltd

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Rethish Varma
Rethish Varma

The document provides a technical analysis of the Nifty 50 index in India. It predicts that the index may see a minor correction if it closes below 6020 points, providing an entry point for investors who have stayed out of the market. It identifies support levels of 5940-5920 and resistance levels of 6090-6180. It notes the index has faced resistance at 6090 and a break above this level could occur if the upcoming budget in March is positive. Investors are advised to observe some caution ahead of the budget.

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DBFS INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES DOHA BROKERAGE INDIA / INDICES / NSE NIFTY Research Analyst Rethish Varma.S ib@dbfsindia.com +91 022 30279043 / 44 February 01, 2013 Observe a bit of caution ahead of Budget Nifty - Technical Outlook A minor correction possible, if Nifty closes below 6020... For those who have stayed away, but are desperate to participate can utilize this minor correction as their entry point! We have mentioned in our last technical report dated 05 th January 2013, that the trend was on the upside and Nifty expected to face resistance at 6090 levels. And if we examine the chart of Nifty for the last couple of weeks we can see that Nifty has never made a close above 6090.Even the rate cut of 25bps announced by the RBI on both Repo rate and CRR had little impact on markets. If we examine the chart of Nifty for the last couple of months it is evident that Nifty has been taking support around its 20 Day EMA level on a continuous basis and bouncing back. We believe that the long term trend continues to be on the positive side, but in the short term perspective, Nifty will continue to face resistance at levels of 6090 to 6180.We at DBFS SECURITIES LTD are of the view that any major breakout above this could happen only if the associate of DOHA BANK Finance Minister comes out with a positive Union Budget in the month of March 2013. But investors should observe some bit of caution ahead of this event. Last 6 months chart of NSE Nifty (Data as on 31/01/2013 closing) associate of DOHA BANK Technical Outlook Technically, apart from what we have mentioned in the above paragraph, at this time around, only for an extremely short term perspective, we expect Nifty to break below the level which now comes at around 6020.A close below this level might signal the beginning of a minor technical correction which canl take Nifty towards 5940 to 5920 levels. A fall below this level is not expected at this point of time unless anything bad comes out from the global or domestic news front. For those who have so far stayed away from the markets, but are desperate to participate in this rally shall consider utilizing this correction as their entry point. On the upside 6090 to 6180 will continue to act as resistance levels, a breakout above this can take Nifty towards 6340 levels. Page 1
DOHA BROKERAGE February 01, 2013 Analyst Certification I Rethish Varma.S, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report. Disclaimers & Disclosures This research report provides general information only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. The information provided herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the associate of DOHA BANK appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing associate of DOHA BANK public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Doha Brokerage and Financial Services Limited (DBFS), its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility or liability, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject DBFS or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of DBFS. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customer’s particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. DBFS, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. DBFS, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. DBFS, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of DBFS. Page 2
DOHA BROKERAGE February 01, 2013 Special Disclosure In accordance with the SEBI (Foreign Institutional Investors) Regulations and with guidelines issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), foreign investors (individuals as well as institutional) that wish to transact securities in Indian bourses must have applied to, and have been approved by SEBI and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Each investor who transacts securities in Indian bourses will be required to certify approval as a foreign institutional investor or as a sub-account of a foreign institutional investor by SEBI and RBI. General Investment Related Disclosure Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. DBFS is also a Portfolio Manager. Portfolio Management Team (PMS) takes its investment decisions independent of the Equity research and accordingly PMS may have positions contrary to the client group research recommendation. associate of DOHA BANK Page 3

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Nifty technical outlook(vol 4) dbfs securities ltd

  • 1. DBFS INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES DOHA BROKERAGE INDIA / INDICES / NSE NIFTY Research Analyst Rethish Varma.S ib@dbfsindia.com +91 022 30279043 / 44 February 01, 2013 Observe a bit of caution ahead of Budget Nifty - Technical Outlook A minor correction possible, if Nifty closes below 6020... For those who have stayed away, but are desperate to participate can utilize this minor correction as their entry point! We have mentioned in our last technical report dated 05 th January 2013, that the trend was on the upside and Nifty expected to face resistance at 6090 levels. And if we examine the chart of Nifty for the last couple of weeks we can see that Nifty has never made a close above 6090.Even the rate cut of 25bps announced by the RBI on both Repo rate and CRR had little impact on markets. If we examine the chart of Nifty for the last couple of months it is evident that Nifty has been taking support around its 20 Day EMA level on a continuous basis and bouncing back. We believe that the long term trend continues to be on the positive side, but in the short term perspective, Nifty will continue to face resistance at levels of 6090 to 6180.We at DBFS SECURITIES LTD are of the view that any major breakout above this could happen only if the associate of DOHA BANK Finance Minister comes out with a positive Union Budget in the month of March 2013. But investors should observe some bit of caution ahead of this event. Last 6 months chart of NSE Nifty (Data as on 31/01/2013 closing) associate of DOHA BANK Technical Outlook Technically, apart from what we have mentioned in the above paragraph, at this time around, only for an extremely short term perspective, we expect Nifty to break below the level which now comes at around 6020.A close below this level might signal the beginning of a minor technical correction which canl take Nifty towards 5940 to 5920 levels. A fall below this level is not expected at this point of time unless anything bad comes out from the global or domestic news front. For those who have so far stayed away from the markets, but are desperate to participate in this rally shall consider utilizing this correction as their entry point. On the upside 6090 to 6180 will continue to act as resistance levels, a breakout above this can take Nifty towards 6340 levels. Page 1
  • 2. DOHA BROKERAGE February 01, 2013 Analyst Certification I Rethish Varma.S, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report. Disclaimers & Disclosures This research report provides general information only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. The information provided herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the associate of DOHA BANK appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing associate of DOHA BANK public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Doha Brokerage and Financial Services Limited (DBFS), its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility or liability, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject DBFS or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of DBFS. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customer’s particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. DBFS, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. DBFS, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. DBFS, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of DBFS. Page 2
  • 3. DOHA BROKERAGE February 01, 2013 Special Disclosure In accordance with the SEBI (Foreign Institutional Investors) Regulations and with guidelines issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), foreign investors (individuals as well as institutional) that wish to transact securities in Indian bourses must have applied to, and have been approved by SEBI and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Each investor who transacts securities in Indian bourses will be required to certify approval as a foreign institutional investor or as a sub-account of a foreign institutional investor by SEBI and RBI. General Investment Related Disclosure Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. DBFS is also a Portfolio Manager. Portfolio Management Team (PMS) takes its investment decisions independent of the Equity research and accordingly PMS may have positions contrary to the client group research recommendation. associate of DOHA BANK Page 3